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Telstar crestTelstar
v
ADO Den Haag crestADO Den Haag

Eredivisie | Sun 11 Oct, 13:30

Telstar v ADO Den Haag Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eredivisie clash features Telstar hosting ADO Den Haag, both struggling near the lower end of the table with limited points and goals scored so far. ADO Den Haag's attack shows more promise, averaging over a goal per game compared to Telstar's 0.4, while both teams have conceded frequently. The match carries pressure for ADO Den Haag to improve their standing, while Telstar aims to capitalize on home advantage. Tactical caution is expected given recent low scoring, but ADO Den Haag's slightly stronger offensive stats suggest they will avoid defeat in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

ADO Den Haag or Draw

  • ADO Den Haag or Draw offers strong model value with a 73.1% chance versus 55.6% implied .
  • ADO Den Haag averages 1.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Telstar's 0.4.
  • Telstar's defensive record is better but still leaky, conceding 1.6 goals per match.
  • ADO Den Haag's recent form shows more attacking intent with 12.6 shots per game versus Telstar's 8.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors ADO Den Haag or Draw with a 73.1% chance, reflecting their superior attacking output and shot volume compared to Telstar. Despite both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, ADO Den Haag's higher goal and shot metrics underpin in avoiding defeat. The at 1.8 represent positive value given the model's edge. No data limitations affect this view, and the current price aligns well with the , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance44% model chance vs 30.3% implied (+13.7 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance44% model chance vs 30.3% implied (+13.7 pts)
Strong positive
Goal ScoringADO Den Haag 1.2 vs Telstar 0.4 goals per game
Positive
Shot VolumeADO Den Haag 12.6 vs Telstar 8 shots per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

ADO Den Haag's superior offensive metrics and recent attacking activity suggest they have the quality to avoid defeat against Telstar. Their higher shot volume and goal rate provide a tactical edge, while Telstar's struggles to score reduce their chances of securing a win. This makes the double chance on ADO Den Haag a sensible choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and attacking quality

“ADO Den Haag's greater attacking threat and shot creation make them the safer bet to avoid defeat here, especially given Telstar's limited goal output and defensive inconsistencies.”

Key Data Signals

ADO Den Haag or Draw evidence

ADO Den Haag or Draw offers strong model value with a 73.1% chance versus 55.6% implied .

ADO Den Haag averages 1.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Telstar's 0.4.

Telstar's defensive record is better but still leaky, conceding 1.6 goals per match.

ADO Den Haag's recent form shows more attacking intent with 12.6 shots per game versus Telstar's 8.

What To Watch In The Data

ADO Den Haag or Draw notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • ADO Den Haag's 60% over 2.5 goals rate versus Telstar's 40% suggests a slightly higher tempo and openness when ADO Den Haag plays, though the trend does not strongly favor high-scoring outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Telstar0.4
Avg goals scored
ADO Den Haag1.2
Telstar1.6
Avg goals conceded
ADO Den Haag2.2
Telstar20%
BTTS rate
ADO Den Haag80%
Telstar40%
Over 2.5 goals
ADO Den Haag60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 42% · edge +10.3 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Goal trends show ADO Den Haag averaging 1.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, contrasting with Telstar's 0.4 goals and 20% BTTS rate. This suggests ADO Den Haag's matches are more open offensively, though overall scoring remains moderate, supporting a cautious outlook on high-scoring outcomes.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionADO Den Haag Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10.7 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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ADO Den Haag to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Telstar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 44% for ADO Den Haag or Draw sits against roughly 30.3% implied by the current price (+13.7 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Telstar

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 4L
20 Sep 2026A AZ Alkmaar0-1
13 Sep 2026A Heerenveen0-0
09 Sep 2026A Twente0-1
06 Sep 2026H Cambuur2-2
30 Aug 2026H Ajax0-4

ADO Den Haag

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 5L
19 Sep 2026H Cambuur1-1
12 Sep 2026A Twente0-2
06 Sep 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-3
30 Aug 2026A Feyenoord2-2
23 Aug 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
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ADO Den Haag Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
ADO Den Haag to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Telstar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Telstar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form data shows both teams with only 2 points in their last matches, but ADO Den Haag's higher goal average and shot volume indicate more attacking intent. Telstar's low scoring and higher goals conceded per game suggest defensive vulnerabilities that ADO Den Haag can exploit to avoid defeat.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Telstar Over 2.5
60%ADO Den Haag Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.2, indicating moderate scoring. ADO Den Haag's 60% over 2.5 goals rate versus Telstar's 40% suggests a slightly higher tempo and openness when ADO Den Haag plays, though the trend does not strongly favor high-scoring outcomes.

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