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Swindon Town crestSwindon Town
v
Accrington ST crestAccrington ST

League Two | Sat 26 Sep, 15:00

Swindon Town v Accrington ST Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Swindon Town and Accrington ST meet in a League Two clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open game. Swindon Town have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals per match, while Accrington ST also leak 1.8 goals per game but maintain a slightly higher scoring rate. Both teams have shown a propensity for matches with multiple goals, suggesting a contest likely to feature end-to-end action and scoring opportunities. Tactical openness and recent form hint at a lively encounter with several goal chances.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Swindon Town concede 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Accrington ST score 1.6 goals per game and concede 1.8, supporting goal likelihood.
  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, signaling frequent high-scoring games.
  • Swindon Town average 10 shots per game; Accrington ST average 12.4 shots, showing offensive activity.
  • Head-to-head average goals over last 10 matches is 3.5, reinforcing the scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 75.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating strong value at 1.8 . Both teams demonstrate attacking tendencies and defensive weaknesses, with recent matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals. Swindon Town's defensive struggles combined with Accrington ST's offensive output create a fertile environment for goals. The consistent high shot volumes and historical head-to-head scoring averages further support this expectation. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Model Probability75.9% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals3.5 average goals in last 10 matches
Positive
Shots per GameSwindon 10, Accrington 12.4
Positive
Defensive ConcessionSwindon concedes 2, Accrington 1.8 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities and offensive intent this season. Swindon Town's higher goals conceded and Accrington ST's consistent shot creation suggest multiple scoring opportunities. This match is likely to produce more than 2.5 goals, aligning with the teams' recent scoring patterns and head-to-head history.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive dynamics

“Given the attacking profiles and defensive lapses of both sides, this fixture is primed for goals. The statistical trends and player involvement indicate a lively contest with several scoring chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Swindon Town concede 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive frailty.

Accrington ST score 1.6 goals per game and concede 1.8, supporting goal likelihood.

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, signaling frequent high-scoring games.

Swindon Town average 10 shots per game; Accrington ST average 12.4 shots, showing offensive activity.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, well above the 2.5 threshold.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances and a high likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Swindon Town1.2
Avg goals scored
Accrington ST1.6
Swindon Town2
Avg goals conceded
Accrington ST1.8
Swindon Town40%
BTTS rate
Accrington ST80%
Swindon Town80%
Over 2.5 goals
Accrington ST80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have high recent Over 2.5 Goals rates at 80%, with Accrington ST showing an 80% BTTS rate compared to Swindon Town's 40%. The head-to-head average of 3.5 goals per match further supports a goal-rich encounter, suggesting multiple scoring opportunities and a likely BTTS outcome.

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Useful next reads

more League Two analysisSwindon Town v Accrington ST predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Accrington ST to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Swindon Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Swindon Town to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.8 with an implied chance of 55.6%, while the model estimates a 75.9% probability, indicating a clear value opportunity. The price reflects an underestimation of the attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses of both teams, making this a positive value bet without warning flags.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Swindon Town4.8
Avg corners for
Accrington ST3
Swindon Town13.2
Avg total corners
Accrington ST8.4
Swindon Town2
Avg yellow cards
Accrington ST3.8
Swindon Town10
Avg shots
Accrington ST12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.2 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Swindon Town average 4.8 corners per game while Accrington ST average 3, indicating moderate set-piece opportunities. Accrington ST's higher shot volume (12.4) and shots on target (4.2) suggest sustained offensive pressure. Discipline-wise, Accrington ST averages 3.8 yellow cards per game, reflecting a competitive and physical match environment.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Swindon Town

LLWWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026A Salford City0-1
12 Sep 2026A York0-4
05 Sep 2026H Colchester3-1
01 Sep 2026H Port Vale3-1
29 Aug 2026A Oldham0-3

Accrington ST

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Newport County0-0
12 Sep 2026A Barnet1-2
05 Sep 2026H Crawley Town3-2
01 Sep 2026H Grimsby2-2
29 Aug 2026A Walsall2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +10.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Accrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Accrington ST to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Swindon Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Swindon Town to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows both teams frequently involved in high-scoring games, with Swindon Town's matches going Over 2.5 Goals 80% of the time and Accrington ST matching this rate. Both sides have scored and conceded multiple goals in recent fixtures, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-laden encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Swindon Town wins
4Draws
4Accrington ST wins
18 Apr 2026Swindon Town v Accrington ST2-2
18 Oct 2025Accrington ST v Swindon Town4-0
22 Mar 2025Swindon Town v Accrington ST0-0
30 Nov 2024Accrington ST v Swindon Town2-2
16 Nov 2024Accrington ST v Swindon Town2-2
12 Mar 2024Swindon Town v Accrington ST1-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Accrington ST to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Swindon Town to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The last 10 meetings between Swindon Town and Accrington ST have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a history of open, high-scoring contests. This strong head-to-head trend supports expectations for another goal-rich match, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Two

Swindon Town7
Played
Accrington ST7
Swindon Town1.1
Avg goals for
Accrington ST1.4
Swindon Town1.6
Avg goals against
Accrington ST1.9
Swindon Town1
Clean sheets
Accrington ST1
Best odds for this sectionAccrington ST Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 47% · edge +4.8 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Accrington ST to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Swindon Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Swindon Town to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season-long data reveals Swindon Town's defense concedes 2 goals per game, while Accrington ST concedes 1.8, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams maintain strong attacking outputs, with Accrington ST scoring 1.6 goals per game. These statistics underpin the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
13Swindon Town107313-3
21Accrington ST67133-3
Swindon Town sits 13th with 10 points, while Accrington ST is 21st with 6 points, indicating differing league pressures. However, the standings have limited bearing on goal expectations here, as both teams have shown similar attacking and defensive patterns regardless of position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Swindon Town Over 2.5
80%Accrington ST Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, well above the 2.5 threshold. This trend, combined with recent form data, suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring chances and a high likelihood of exceeding 2.5 goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Swindon Town v Accrington ST prediction

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