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Sweden crestSweden
v
Poland crestPoland

UEFA Nations League | Mon 28 Sep, 19:45

Sweden v Poland Stats

Data last updated: Tue 20 Oct 2026, 03:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sweden face Poland in UEFA Nations League on Mon 28 Sep, 19:45. Poland's ongoing struggle to create quality chances and recent winless run further supports Sweden's advantage in this Nations League fixture. Sweden's strong home form contrasts with Poland's recent winless streak.

BT4Y match pick

Sweden to win

  • At 19/20, Sweden to win implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • Sweden's consistent home scoring of exactly two goals and the attacking threat of Isak and Gyokeres support a 2-1 scoreline.
  • Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Poland.
  • Poland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Sweden to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Sweden sit 1 in the table, while Poland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 47% for Sweden to win sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Poland. Sweden's consistent home scoring of exactly two goals and the attacking threat of Isak and Gyokeres support a 2-1 scoreline.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Negative
Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Poland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Sweden's consistent home scoring of exactly two goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sweden Win is the preferred angle because sweden's consistent home scoring of exactly two goals and the attacking threat of Isak and Gyokeres support a 2-1 scoreline. Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Poland. Poland’s goalless draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina highlighted a different concern.

Main risk

Poland’s goalless draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina highlighted a different concern.

Key Data Signals

Sweden to win evidence

Sweden's consistent home scoring of exactly two goals and the attacking threat of Isak and Gyokeres support a.

Sweden have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Poland.

Poland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Sweden Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Sweden sit 1 in the table, while Poland sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sweden to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sweden2
    Avg goals scored
    Poland0
    Sweden1
    Avg goals conceded
    Poland0
    Sweden100%
    BTTS rate
    Poland0%
    Sweden100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Poland0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +9.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsSweden v Poland predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 47% · edge +0 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Sweden Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Sweden to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sweden

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    25 Sep 2026H Romania2-1

    Poland

    D
    Last 50W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 0L
    25 Sep 2026H Bosnia & Herzegovina0-0
    Market aligned with main pickSweden to WinBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 47% · edge +0 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Sweden Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Sweden Over 2.5
    0%Poland Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sweden sit at 100% and Poland sit at 0% with the H2H average at 4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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