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Bosnia & Herzegovina crestBosnia & Herzegovina

UEFA Nations League | Sat 14 Nov, 19:45

Sweden v Bosnia & Herzegovina Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 10:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bosnia & Herzegovina host Sweden in a pivotal UEFA Nations League clash at Stadion Bilino Polje, where Bosnia's strong home form contrasts with Sweden's recent away defensive struggles. Bosnia have won four of their last six home matches, scoring consistently, while Sweden have lost four of their last six away fixtures and failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 consecutive matches under Graham Potter. Despite Sweden's attacking efficiency and perfect start in the group, Bosnia's resilience and home scoring consistency set the stage for a competitive encounter with goals likely at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Sweden Asian Handicap -1

  • Bosnia have won four of their last six home matches, scoring in all six.
  • Sweden have lost four of their last six away matches and kept no clean sheets in 12 games under Potter.
  • Both teams have scored in 11 of Bosnia's 16 matches and 10 of Sweden's 14.
  • Sweden's Viktor Gyökeres has scored in both opening Nations League matches.
  • Bosnia's Haris Tabakovic scored in their recent 4-2 win in Romania, highlighting attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 20.6% chance to Bosnia & Herzegovina winning with both teams scoring, reflecting Bosnia's solid home scoring record and Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities away. Sweden's inability to keep clean sheets under Potter, combined with Bosnia's consistent goal scoring at home, supports the likelihood of goals at both ends. The price is fairly aligned with , indicating a small positive . Data quality is strong for both teams, enhancing in this combined outcome.

Bosnia Home Scoring ConsistencyScored in 5 of last 6 home matches
Strong positive
Sweden Defensive WeaknessNo clean sheets in 12 matches under Potter
Strong positive
Both Teams to Score FrequencyBTTS in 11 of Bosnia's 16 and 10 of Sweden's 14 matches
Positive
Model Probability vs Implied Odds53.4% model chance
Positive
Data QualityNo limited data concerns for either team
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bosnia & Herzegovina's home scoring consistency and Sweden's defensive frailty away from home make a compelling case for Bosnia to win with goals at both ends. The visitors' attacking threat ensures they will score, but their inability to keep clean sheets suggests Bosnia can capitalize to secure victory. This tactical and form-based balance underpins the combined selection.

Main risk

Sweden are scoring, but clean sheets remain elusive.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and goals

“Bosnia's reliable home attack meets Sweden's leaky defense in a fixture where goals at both ends are almost inevitable, making the home win with BTTS a tactically sound and data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

Sweden Asian Handicap -1 evidence

Bosnia have won four of their last six home matches, scoring in all six.

Sweden have lost four of their last six away matches and kept no clean sheets in 12 games under Potter.

Both teams have scored in 11 of Bosnia's 16 matches and 10 of Sweden's 14.

Sweden's Viktor Gyökeres has scored in both opening Nations League matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Sweden Asian Handicap -1 notes

  • In the last 14 matches involving these teams, 9 have featured over 2.5 goals, indicating a trend towards open, attacking games.
  • Both sides have a history of scoring and conceding, with Bosnia's home matches often producing multiple goals.
  • This trend suggests a lively tempo with chances for both teams, supporting the expectation of goals at both ends and a match that could exceed 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sweden1.75
Avg goals scored
Bosnia & Herzegovina1.5
Sweden0.75
Avg goals conceded
Bosnia & Herzegovina0.75
Sweden75%
BTTS rate
Bosnia & Herzegovina50%
Sweden50%
Over 2.5 goals
Bosnia & Herzegovina25%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +10.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a strong recent scoring record, with Bosnia scoring in 5 of their last 6 home matches and Sweden scoring in 11 of 12 matches under Potter. Defensive frailties, especially Sweden's 12-match streak without a clean sheet, increase the likelihood of goals at both ends. This match is expected to feature attacking play from both sides, fitting the BTTS profile.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSweden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 77% · edge -14.2 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Sweden to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The model rates Sweden Asian Handicap -1 at 53.4% on the latest available numbers. Bosnia have won four of their last six home matches, while Sweden have lost four of their last six away fixtures.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sweden

WDWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
05 Oct 2026A Romania1-0
02 Oct 2026A Bosnia & Herzegovina1-1
28 Sep 2026H Poland3-1
25 Sep 2026H Romania2-1

Bosnia & Herzegovina

WDWD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
05 Oct 2026H Poland1-0
02 Oct 2026H Sweden1-1
28 Sep 2026A Romania4-2
25 Sep 2026A Poland0-0
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 89% · edge -9.2 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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Sweden Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sweden to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bosnia & Herzegovina have accumulated 8 points recently with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game, reflecting solid home form and defensive resilience. Sweden lead the group with 10 points, scoring 1.75 goals and conceding 0.75 on average, but their away form is less convincing with multiple losses and defensive lapses. This form contrast underlines Bosnia's home advantage and Sweden's vulnerability on the road.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Sweden Over 2.5
25%Bosnia & Herzegovina Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last 14 matches involving these teams, 9 have featured over 2.5 goals, indicating a trend towards open, attacking games. Both sides have a history of scoring and conceding, with Bosnia's home matches often producing multiple goals. This trend suggests a lively tempo with chances for both teams, supporting the expectation of goals at both ends and a match that could exceed 2.5 goals.

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