Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden Predictions

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden: Group B4 Leaders Face a Test of Home Strength. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

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19:45 • Oct 2, 2026

Bilino Polje

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Sweden

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Sweden have both emerged from the opening week of Nations League action with reason for optimism, but they have taken different routes to the top two places in Group B4.

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Sweden — bet365 Market Snapshot

Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

vs

Sweden

Main Market • 1X2

Result Outlook

Bosnia's home strength and Sweden's away defensive issues shape the match outcome.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

30%

21/10

Draw

26%

13/5

Sweden

44%

11/10

Result + BTTS

Win & BTTS

Bosnia's strong home form contrasts with Sweden's away defensive struggles.

Bosnia to win & BTTS

Implied probability20%4/1

Correct Score

2-1 Scoreline Lean

Both teams have scored in most recent matches, suggesting goals at both ends.

Correct Score 2-1

Implied probability10%9/1

Correct Score

Score Pattern

Bosnia's defence limits Sweden to one goal while scoring twice themselves.

Correct Score 2-1

Implied probability10%9/1

View bet365 Odds

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Three Punchy Stats

• Bosnia have won four of their last six home matches, while Sweden have lost four of their last six away fixtures. That is the clearest counterweight to Sweden’s perfect Nations League start.
• Sweden have failed to keep a clean sheet in all 12 matches under Potter, despite scoring in 11 of them. Bosnia’s four-goal display in Romania gives that weakness immediate relevance.
• Gyokeres has scored in both of Sweden’s Nations League matches so far. With five team goals from two games, Sweden arrive as Group B4’s leading scorers as well as its only six-point side.

Sweden arrive at Stadion Bilino Polje with a perfect six points after beating Romania 2-1 and Poland 3-1. Bosnia responded to a goalless draw in Poland by scoring four in Romania, leaving them two points behind the leaders. The complication for Sweden is a substantial one: their recent away record is far less convincing than their strong start under Graham Potter suggests.

Bosnia’s home record changes the argument

Bosnia have lost only twice in their last 14 matches, and their home results provide an even stronger reason to treat this as a serious examination of Sweden’s early momentum.

Their last six home fixtures have produced four wins, one draw and one defeat. They have scored in all six, including three goals against both Qatar and Romania, while Italy were held to a 1-1 draw.

That contrasts sharply with Sweden’s recent travelling record. The visitors have won only one of their last six away matches, losing four, with defeats against France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Kosovo.

Sweden’s two Nations League wins therefore deserve respect without erasing the broader weakness away from home.

Sweden are scoring, but clean sheets remain elusive

Potter’s side have found the net in 11 of his 12 matches in charge, with the 3-0 World Cup defeat to France the lone exception. Viktor Gyokeres has reinforced that attacking consistency by scoring against both Romania and Poland.

There is another side to it. Sweden have not kept a clean sheet in any of those 12 matches.

That vulnerability looks particularly relevant against a Bosnia side coming off a 4-2 victory in Romania. Haris Tabakovic scored in that game to take his international return to five goals in 13 appearances, while Esmir Bajraktarevic supplied two assists.

Across the wider statistical sample, Sweden have conceded 27 times in 14 matches, an average of 1.93 per game. Bosnia’s corresponding figure is 19 conceded across 16, or 1.19 per match. Sweden may be the group’s only perfect side, but their defensive numbers leave the door distinctly open.

A match with attacking potential

Neither team’s recent profile points towards defensive control being straightforward.

Both teams have scored in 11 of Bosnia’s 16 matches and 10 of Sweden’s 14. Matches involving Sweden have also crossed 2.5 goals nine times in 14, while Bosnia are evenly split at eight above and eight below that mark.

Sweden are particularly interesting in how they generate their attempts. They average only 8.21 shots per game compared with Bosnia’s 12.44, yet 41% of Sweden’s attempts are on target against Bosnia’s 33%. Sweden have also scored 22 goals in 14 matches, suggesting that lower shooting volume has not prevented them from producing meaningful attacking output.

That efficiency will be tested by a Bosnia side who have conceded only twice across their opening two group matches.

Selection issues give Bosnia another opening

Potter is without Emil Holm and Alexander Isak after both withdrew through injury following the Romania fixture. Sebastian Nanasi, who provided an assist after coming on against Poland, is among the alternatives should Sweden make changes.

Bosnia have fewer apparent reasons to alter a side that scored four in Romania. Tabakovic’s goal and Bajraktarevic’s creative contribution give Sergej Barbarez a productive attacking combination to retain.

The group table favours Sweden; the location and recent home-away split favour a much less comfortable evening.

🎯 Pick 1: Bosnia to win and both teams to score @ 4/1

The case for a home victory combined with goals at both ends relies on the sharp contrast between Bosnia’s excellent home form and Sweden’s travelling struggles, alongside a persistent pattern of defensive vulnerability from the visitors. Bosnia have turned Stadion Bilino Polje into a reliable base, winning four of their last six home fixtures and suffering only two defeats in their last 14 matches overall.

That stability meets a Sweden side whose perfect Nations League start masks significant problems on the road. The visitors have lost four of their last six away matches, taking defeats against France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Kosovo. While Graham Potter ensures his team score regularly—finding the net in 11 of his 12 matches in charge—they have failed to keep a single clean sheet during his tenure. Across a wider 14-match sample, Sweden have conceded 27 times, representing an average of 1.93 goals per game.

That established defensive weakness gives the home attack a clear opening, especially with Haris Tabakovic arriving after scoring in a 4-2 victory in Romania. The visitors naturally carry a threat, underlined by Viktor Gyokeres finding the net in both opening Group B4 matches. Sweden’s 22 goals in 14 games demonstrate they can produce output without high shot volume. However, combining Sweden’s 12-match sequence without a clean sheet and their broader away difficulties leaves the hosts well positioned to outscore an opponent who rarely fails to register but consistently struggles to keep opponents out.

Risk Factor: Sweden sit top of Group B4 with a perfect six points and have scored in 11 of 12 matches under Potter, making an away victory a realistic alternative outcome that would instantly defeat the home-win condition.

⚔️ Pick 2: Bosnia vs Sweden 2-1 @ 9/1

A 2-1 home victory aligns exactly with the contrasting defensive metrics and scoring patterns presented by both nations. To satisfy this correct-score market, Bosnia must score exactly twice while restricting a capable Swedish attack to a single goal before the final whistle.

The argument for Bosnia finding the net twice relies heavily on Sweden’s confirmed defensive struggles. Graham Potter’s side arrive having failed to keep a clean sheet in 12 consecutive matches, while their longer-term average sits at a vulnerable 1.93 goals conceded per game. Bosnia consistently convert opportunities on home soil, scoring in six consecutive home fixtures and recently recording four goals away in Romania. Against an opponent that reliably allows goals, a two-goal home return fits the established data comfortably.

On the other side of the scoreline, Sweden’s attacking efficiency justifies their single goal. Despite averaging a relatively low 8.21 shots per game, they place 41% of those attempts on target and have found the net in 11 of 12 matches under Potter. Viktor Gyokeres provides a reliable scoring presence, having scored in both opening Nations League fixtures. However, Bosnia boast a stronger defensive baseline than Sweden’s recent opponents, conceding just 19 times across their last 16 fixtures at an average of 1.19 per game. That stronger defensive record gives the hosts the necessary resilience to prevent the visitors from scoring multiple times.

While exact-score selections carry inherent fragility—a single late strike ruins the bet completely—a 2-1 outcome balances Sweden’s persistent goalscoring against their prolonged inability to defend.