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Sutjeska crestSutjeska
v
Kairat Almaty crestKairat Almaty

UEFA Champions League | Wed 15 Jul, 20:00

Sutjeska v Kairat Almaty Stats

Data last updated: Tue 14 Jul 2026, 05:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sutjeska face Kairat Almaty in UEFA Champions League on Wed 15 Jul, 20:00. Sutjeska Niksic are completely out of match sharpness after losing three pre-season friendlies, highlighting a severe fitness and tempo gap that the host's explosive forward line will exploit at home.

BT4Y best bet

Sutjeska Win

  • At 6/1, Sutjeska Win implies roughly 14%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • They cannot simply treat this as a glamorous continental evening and forget the pressure building at home.
  • Kairat Almaty have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sutjeska.
  • Kairat Almaty have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Sutjeska Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Sutjeska Win sits against roughly 14% implied by the current price. Kairat Almaty have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sutjeska. They cannot simply treat this as a glamorous continental evening and forget the pressure building at home.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 14% implied
Positive
Kairat Almaty have the stronger recent points return, taking 3.Visible data support
Positive
Kairat Almaty have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
They cannot simply treat this as a glamorous continental.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sutjeska Win is the preferred angle because they cannot simply treat this as a glamorous continental evening and forget the pressure building at home. Kairat Almaty have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sutjeska. After 18 matches, they sit one point behind Ordabasy, although they have played two games more.

Main risk

After 18 matches, they sit one point behind Ordabasy, although they have played two games more.

Key Data Signals

Sutjeska Win evidence

They cannot simply treat this as a glamorous continental evening and forget the pressure building at home.

Kairat Almaty have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Sutjeska.

Kairat Almaty have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Sutjeska Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Sutjeska Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sutjeska1
    Avg goals scored
    Kairat Almaty2
    Sutjeska2
    Avg goals conceded
    Kairat Almaty1
    Sutjeska100%
    BTTS rate
    Kairat Almaty100%
    Sutjeska100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Kairat Almaty100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 60% · edge +18.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSutjeska to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +1.4 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Sutjeska Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Sutjeska to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sutjeska

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    08 Jul 2026A Kairat Almaty1-2

    Kairat Almaty

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    08 Jul 2026H Sutjeska2-1
    Market aligned with main pickSutjeska to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +1.4 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Sutjeska Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Sutjeska wins
    0Draws
    1Kairat Almaty wins
    08 Jul 2026Kairat Almaty v Sutjeska2-1
    Market aligned with main pickSutjeska to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +1.4 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Sutjeska to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Sutjeska1
    Played
    Kairat Almaty1
    Sutjeska1
    Avg goals for
    Kairat Almaty2
    Sutjeska2
    Avg goals against
    Kairat Almaty1
    Sutjeska0
    Clean sheets
    Kairat Almaty0
    Market aligned with main pickSutjeska to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 26% · edge +1.4 pts
    3.9
    Check odds @ 3.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Sutjeska Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Sutjeska to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Sutjeska Over 2.5
    100%Kairat Almaty Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sutjeska sit at 100% and Kairat Almaty sit at 100% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.