Football Stats Hub

Sunderland crestSunderland
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Premier League | Fri 24 Apr, 20:00

Sunderland v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 12:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sunderland face Nottingham Forest in Premier League on Fri 24 Apr, 20:00. Their higher shot volume and superior passing accuracy suggest they can exploit a Sunderland side that has struggled for home wins lately and remains vulnerable to the wide attacking play Forest prefer to utilise.

BT4Y match pick

Sunderland Win

  • At 6/4, Sunderland Win implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 36%.
  • Forest's momentum and Sunderland's defensive lapses after conceding four to Villa point towards narrow margins.
  • Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Sunderland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Sunderland sit 7 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 36% for Sunderland Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Sunderland Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Forest's momentum and Sunderland's defensive lapses after conceding four to Villa point towards narrow margins.

Model chance vs price36% model chance against roughly 40% implied
Negative
Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Sunderland sit 7 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit.Visible data support
Positive
Forest's momentum and Sunderland's defensive lapses after conceding four.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sunderland Win is the preferred angle because forest's momentum and Sunderland's defensive lapses after conceding four to Villa point towards narrow margins. Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Sunderland Win angle more than a raw possession edge. It is the most straightforward market but depends entirely on which team finds the clinical edge over 90 minutes.

Main risk

It is the most straightforward market but depends entirely on which team finds the clinical edge over 90 minutes.

Key Data Signals

Sunderland Win evidence

Forest's momentum and Sunderland's defensive lapses after conceding four to Villa point towards narrow margins.

Nottingham Forest have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Sunderland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Sunderland sit 7 in the table, while Nottingham Forest sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sunderland Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sunderland1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Nottingham Forest2
    Sunderland1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Nottingham Forest0.8
    Sunderland40%
    BTTS rate
    Nottingham Forest60%
    Sunderland40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Nottingham Forest60%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 18% · edge +42.6 pts
    5.5
    Check odds @ 5.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
    15
    Check odds @ 15
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sunderland

    LWWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    19 Apr 2026A Aston Villa3-4
    12 Apr 2026H Tottenham1-0
    22 Mar 2026A Newcastle2-1
    14 Mar 2026H Brighton0-1
    03 Mar 2026A Leeds1-0

    Nottingham Forest

    WDWDD
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    19 Apr 2026H Burnley4-1
    12 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-1
    22 Mar 2026A Tottenham3-0
    15 Mar 2026H Fulham0-0
    04 Mar 2026A Manchester City2-2
    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 37% · edge -0.6 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.46
    Check odds @ 1.46
    Sunderland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Sunderland5438141212-6
    16Nottingham Forest4438111116-3
    Sunderland sit in position 7, while Nottingham Forest sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Sunderland Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 37% · edge -0.6 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    Sunderland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Sunderland to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Sunderland4.2
    Avg corners for
    Nottingham Forest3.25
    Sunderland10.4
    Avg total corners
    Nottingham Forest10
    Sunderland3.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Nottingham Forest2
    Sunderland11.4
    Avg shots
    Nottingham Forest9.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 48% · edge +17.2 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Sunderland wins
    1Draws
    1Nottingham Forest wins
    27 Sep 2025Nottingham Forest v Sunderland0-1
    19 Jul 2024Nottingham Forest v Sunderland1-1
    30 Dec 2017Nottingham Forest v Sunderland0-1
    12 Sep 2017Sunderland v Nottingham Forest0-1
    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 37% · edge -0.6 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    4.75
    Check odds @ 4.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Sunderland to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Sunderland38
    Played
    Nottingham Forest38
    Sunderland1.1
    Avg goals for
    Nottingham Forest1.3
    Sunderland1.3
    Avg goals against
    Nottingham Forest1.3
    Sunderland11
    Clean sheets
    Nottingham Forest9
    Market aligned with main pickSunderland to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 37% · edge -0.6 pts
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Sunderland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Season data supports Sunderland to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Sunderland Over 2.5
    60%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
    1.25H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sunderland sit at 40% and Nottingham Forest sit at 60% with the H2H average at 1.25 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Sunderland v Nottingham Forest prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    Premier League hubPremier League hubfull betting preview for Sunderland v Nottingham Forestcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre