Football Stats Hub

Stirling Albion crestStirling Albion
v
Kelty Hearts crestKelty Hearts

League Two | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Stirling Albion v Kelty Hearts Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 00:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stirling Albion and Kelty Hearts meet in a League Two clash where both sides have shown mixed defensive records this season. Stirling Albion have struggled at the back, conceding 2.8 goals per game, while Kelty Hearts have a slightly better defensive record but still concede regularly. Offensively, both teams have modest scoring rates, with Kelty Hearts averaging 1.2 goals per game and Stirling Albion just 1. The fixture promises open play given the defensive vulnerabilities and the mid-table stakes, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter despite some recent inconsistency.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 62%, above the 57% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Kelty Hearts have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Stirling Albion's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 40% of the time, showing some openness.
  • The head-to-head average goals per game is 2.67 across nine meetings, indicating a history of relatively high scoring.
  • Recent form shows both teams conceding multiple goals, suggesting defensive frailties that could lead to more goals.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 62% while the model sits nearer 57% (-5.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Kelty Hearts Draw No Bet shows a +12.6 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model estimates a 56.6% chance of Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking tendencies and defensive weaknesses of both teams. Kelty Hearts' higher over 2.5 rate and the historical average goals in their meetings support this. However, the current imply a 61.7% chance, making the price slightly short. This selection is football-led rather than a pure value bet, with a recommendation to reduce stake or wait for better or clearer team news to strengthen .

Model Chance56.6% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-5.1 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance56.6% model chance vs 61.7% implied (-5.1 pts)
Negative
Kelty Hearts Over 2.5 Rate60%
Positive
Stirling Albion Defensive Record2.8 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides vulnerable defensively, particularly Stirling Albion who concede heavily. Kelty Hearts' more consistent scoring and the historical goal averages suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a reasonable call. The tactical openness and mid-table stakes should encourage attacking play, supporting the chance of multiple goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring potential

“This fixture features two teams with defensive vulnerabilities and a history of relatively high-scoring matches, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation despite the price being slightly short. The attacking intent and recent form underline the likelihood of goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Kelty Hearts have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.

Stirling Albion's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 40% of the time, showing some openness.

The head-to-head average goals per game is 2.67 across nine meetings, indicating a history of relatively high scoring.

Recent form shows both teams conceding multiple goals, suggesting defensive frailties that could lead to more goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.67, indicating a history of relatively open games.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and defensive records, suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams prone to conceding in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stirling Albion1
Avg goals scored
Kelty Hearts1.2
Stirling Albion2.8
Avg goals conceded
Kelty Hearts2
Stirling Albion40%
BTTS rate
Kelty Hearts60%
Stirling Albion40%
Over 2.5 goals
Kelty Hearts60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 62% · edge -5.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams show tendencies toward matches with multiple goals, with Kelty Hearts hitting over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games and Stirling Albion at 40%. The head-to-head average of 2.67 goals per game further supports the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter, with both sides prone to conceding and scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two fixtures and predictionsplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stirling Albion

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
03 Oct 2026A Annan Athletic1-0
19 Sep 2026H Clyde1-1
12 Sep 2026A Edinburgh City3-7
05 Sep 2026H Spartans0-2
29 Aug 2026A Elgin City0-4

Kelty Hearts

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 5L
03 Oct 2026A Spartans2-0
19 Sep 2026H Edinburgh City1-3
12 Sep 2026A Clyde1-4
05 Sep 2026H Annan Athletic2-1
29 Aug 2026A Stranraer0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 67% · edge +13.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Kelty Hearts Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Kelty Hearts to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Stirling Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Stirling Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 29%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Recent form shows Kelty Hearts accumulating 6 points with a 60% over 2.5 rate, indicating a trend toward higher scoring matches. Stirling Albion have 4 points with a 40% rate, reflecting some inconsistency but still openness in defense. This recent data aligns with the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 62% · edge -5.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Kelty Hearts Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Kelty Hearts to WinBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Stirling Albion Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
The 56.6% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (-5.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Stirling Albion and 60% for Kelty Hearts, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Stirling Albion Over 2.5
60%Kelty Hearts Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.67, indicating a history of relatively open games. This trend, combined with recent form and defensive records, suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, with both teams prone to conceding in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…