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Stevenage crestStevenage
v
Leicester crestLeicester

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:00

Stevenage v Leicester Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stevenage and Leicester face off in the EFL Trophy with both sides showing strong attacking intent in recent matches. Each team has scored six goals while conceding just one in their last three games, highlighting a trend for open, high-scoring encounters. Both teams have maintained a 100% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an offensive tactical approach. This fixture promises an engaging contest with offensive players likely to influence the scoreline significantly, setting the stage for a goal-rich encounter under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both Stevenage and Leicester have scored 6 goals and conceded only 1 in their last three matches.
  • Each team has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, indicating consistent high-scoring games.
  • Stevenage averages 22 shots per game with 11 on target, showing attacking pressure.
  • Leicester averages 35 shots per game with 11 on target, reflecting strong offensive output.
  • Both teams have solid corner statistics, with Stevenage at 9 and Leicester at 11 per game, indicating sustained attacking phases.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 78% chance, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, reflecting a 20.2% . Both teams have demonstrated prolific scoring and solid offensive metrics, including high shot volumes and consistent goal returns. The attacking roles of players like Leicester's T. Bristrić, alongside Stevenage's M. Broggio, underpin the expectation for multiple goals. No data limitations exist, reinforcing in this selection.

Model Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goalscoring FormBoth teams scored 6 goals in last 3 matches
Strong positive
Shot VolumeStevenage 22, Leicester 35 shots per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Stevenage and Leicester pushing forward aggressively, as recent form shows potent attacks and minimal defensive concessions. The high shot counts and goal returns from both sides suggest a lively match with multiple goals likely to be scored.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Both teams have demonstrated attacking prowess and consistent goal-scoring form, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both Stevenage and Leicester have scored 6 goals and conceded only 1 in their last three matches.

Each team has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, indicating consistent high-scoring games.

Stevenage averages 22 shots per game with 11 on target, showing attacking pressure.

Leicester averages 35 shots per game with 11 on target, reflecting strong offensive output.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have consistently produced games with more than 2.5 goals, reflecting a fast tempo and attacking mindset.
  • This trend is reinforced by their high shot volumes and goal tallies, indicating a strong likelihood of a goal-laden fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stevenage6
Avg goals scored
Leicester6
Stevenage1
Avg goals conceded
Leicester1
Stevenage100%
BTTS rate
Leicester100%
Stevenage100%
Over 2.5 goals
Leicester100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Both Stevenage and Leicester have maintained a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, with each side scoring six goals and conceding just one in their last three games. This trend, combined with their attacking styles, supports expectations for multiple goals and likely BTTS outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Stevenage Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Stevenage to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Leicester to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Leicester Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The 72.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Stevenage and 100% for Leicester, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stevenage

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Sep 2026A Walsall6-1

Leicester

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
22 Sep 2026H Fulham U216-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 71% · edge -4.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Stevenage Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Stevenage to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Leicester to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Leicester Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows both teams scoring six goals and conceding only one across their last three matches, with a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate. This consistent offensive output and defensive vulnerability create conditions favorable for a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Stevenage Over 2.5
100%Leicester Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have consistently produced games with more than 2.5 goals, reflecting a fast tempo and attacking mindset. This trend is reinforced by their high shot volumes and goal tallies, indicating a strong likelihood of a goal-laden fixture.

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