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Start crestStart
v
Ham-Kam crestHam-Kam

Eliteserien | Sun 11 Oct, 16:00

Start v Ham-Kam Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Start faces Ham-Kam in an Eliteserien clash where both teams are under pressure to improve results. Start sits 16th with 16 points, struggling defensively but showing some attacking promise, while Ham-Kam, ranked 13th with 23 points, has a leaky defense conceding 3.4 goals per game. Start's recent form includes 6 points from their last matches, contrasting with Ham-Kam's single point. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Start's ability to capitalize on home advantage and tighter defensive organization against Ham-Kam's more vulnerable backline.

BT4Y best bet

Start to Win

  • Start has a 74% to win, significantly above the 52.4% implied by
  • Start concedes 1.4 goals per game, much better than Ham-Kam's 3.4 goals conceded
  • Start averages 17 shots per game with 4.2 on target, indicating attacking pressure
  • Ham-Kam's recent form is poor with only 1 point from recent matches, increasing Start's edge

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Start to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive solidity compared to Ham-Kam's defensive struggles. Start's higher shot volume and better defensive record underpin this . The offer positive value given the implied chance is just over 52%, making this a sound selection based on both data and tactical context. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model chance67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied chance vs model67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive recordStart concedes 1.4 goals/game vs Ham-Kam 3.4
Strong positive
Recent form pointsStart 6 points vs Ham-Kam 1 point
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Start's home advantage and recent form edge make them the logical pick to secure victory. Their defensive improvements and higher attacking output contrast sharply with Ham-Kam's defensive frailties and poor recent results, suggesting Start can control the match and earn three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage for Start

“Start's ability to generate significantly more shots and maintain a tighter defense than Ham-Kam provides a clear tactical foundation for a home win. Their recent momentum and home conditions should see them capitalize on Ham-Kam's defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Start to Win evidence

Start has a 74% to win, significantly above the 52.4% implied by

Start concedes 1.4 goals per game, much better than Ham-Kam's 3.4 goals conceded

Start averages 17 shots per game with 4.2 on target, indicating attacking pressure

Ham-Kam's recent form is poor with only 1 point from recent matches, increasing Start's edge

What To Watch In The Data

Start to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4, indicating open games.
  • However, Start's recent matches show a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate compared to Ham-Kam's 100%, suggesting Ham-Kam's games are typically high scoring, but Start's defensive focus may limit this trend in the upcoming fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Start1.2
Avg goals scored
Ham-Kam1
Start1.4
Avg goals conceded
Ham-Kam3.4
Start20%
BTTS rate
Ham-Kam60%
Start40%
Over 2.5 goals
Ham-Kam100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12.5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Start averages 1.2 goals per game with a low BTTS rate of 20%, while Ham-Kam scores 1 goal per game but concedes heavily, leading to a 60% BTTS rate. This suggests a match where Start may control scoring opportunities and limit Ham-Kam's chances, favoring a lower-scoring game with Start likely to edge the result.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickStart to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Start Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 67.4% for Start to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Start have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Ham-Kam.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Start

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
20 Sep 2026A Sandefjord0-3
13 Sep 2026H Brann2-0
04 Sep 2026A Aalesund0-2
30 Aug 2026H KFUM Oslo4-1
08 Aug 2026H Fredrikstad0-1

Ham-Kam

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
20 Sep 2026A Tromso2-3
13 Sep 2026H Molde1-5
05 Sep 2026A Rosenborg0-4
30 Aug 2026H Kristiansund BK2-2
16 Aug 2026A Brann0-3
Market aligned with main pickStart to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Start Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Start's recent form shows 6 points gained with improved defensive resilience, while Ham-Kam has struggled, earning only 1 point and conceding heavily. This form disparity underlines Start's momentum and advantage heading into the match, supporting their chances to secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Start Over 2.5
100%Ham-Kam Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4, indicating open games. However, Start's recent matches show a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate compared to Ham-Kam's 100%, suggesting Ham-Kam's games are typically high scoring, but Start's defensive focus may limit this trend in the upcoming fixture.

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