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ST Mirren crestST Mirren
v
Dunfermline crestDunfermline

League Cup | Sun 26 Jul, 15:00

ST Mirren v Dunfermline Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 20:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ST Mirren face Dunfermline in League Cup on Sun 26 Jul, 15:00. St Mirren vs Dunfermline Preview: Group C’s Top Two Prepare for a High-Stakes Shootout.

BT4Y best bet

St Mirren to win and both teams to score

  • At 21/10, St Mirren to win and both teams to score implies roughly 32%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 47%.
  • St Mirren’s consistent scoring matches and Dunfermline’s tendency to concede away support a 3-1 outcome.
  • ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Dunfermline.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 47% for St Mirren to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 32% implied by the current price. ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Dunfermline. St Mirren’s consistent scoring matches and Dunfermline’s tendency to concede away support a 3-1 outcome.

Model chance vs price47% model chance against roughly 32% implied
Strong positive
ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
St Mirren’s consistent scoring matches and Dunfermline’s tendency.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: ST Mirren Win is the preferred angle because st Mirren’s consistent scoring matches and Dunfermline’s tendency to concede away support a 3-1 outcome. ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Dunfermline. Both teams therefore arrive with in attack, but only St Mirren possess a perfect record.

Main risk

Both teams therefore arrive with in attack, but only St Mirren possess a perfect record.

Key Data Signals

St Mirren to win and both teams to score evidence

St Mirren’s consistent scoring matches and Dunfermline’s tendency to concede away support a 3-1 outcome.

ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Dunfermline.

ST Mirren have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the ST Mirren Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

St Mirren to win and both teams to score notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    ST Mirren4
    Avg goals scored
    Dunfermline3
    ST Mirren1
    Avg goals conceded
    Dunfermline1.33
    ST Mirren33%
    BTTS rate
    Dunfermline33%
    ST Mirren100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Dunfermline100%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +12.6 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 56%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 55% · edge +10.2 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    ST Mirren Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 56%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    ST Mirren to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    ST Mirren

    WWW
    Last 53W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 0L
    21 Jul 2026H East Kilbride4-3
    18 Jul 2026A Cove Rangers4-0
    11 Jul 2026A Dumbarton4-0

    Dunfermline

    WWL
    Last 52W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 1L
    21 Jul 2026H Cove Rangers5-0
    14 Jul 2026H Dumbarton4-1
    11 Jul 2026A East Kilbride0-3
    Market aligned with main pickST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 55% · edge +10.2 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    ST Mirren Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5ST Mirren wins
    2Draws
    3Dunfermline wins
    06 Jul 2024Dunfermline v ST Mirren0-1
    13 Jul 2021ST Mirren v Dunfermline1-0
    14 Jul 2019ST Mirren v Dunfermline2-3
    10 Mar 2018St Mirren v Dunfermline2-0
    26 Jan 2018Dunfermline v St Mirren1-2
    16 Dec 2017St Mirren v Dunfermline1-0
    Market aligned with main pickST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 55% · edge +10.2 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 56%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    The head-to-head sample gives context for ST Mirren to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    League Cup

    ST Mirren5
    Played
    Dunfermline5
    ST Mirren2.6
    Avg goals for
    Dunfermline2.2
    ST Mirren1.8
    Avg goals against
    Dunfermline1.2
    ST Mirren2
    Clean sheets
    Dunfermline2
    Market aligned with main pickST Mirren to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 55% · edge +10.2 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    ST Mirren Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2.02
    Check odds @ 2.02
    Season data supports ST Mirren to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%ST Mirren Over 2.5
    100%Dunfermline Over 2.5
    1.9H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: ST Mirren sit at 100% and Dunfermline sit at 100% with the H2H average at 1.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    ST Mirren v Dunfermline prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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