Football Stats Hub

ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone
v
Kilmarnock crestKilmarnock

Premiership | Sun 02 Aug, 14:00

ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 06:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ST Johnstone face Kilmarnock in Premiership on Sun 02 Aug, 14:00. This fixture has a strong history of low scoring, with five of the last six meetings at McDiarmid Park producing under 2.5 goals.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 1/1, Under 2 implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 55%.
  • For the Saints, this is a chance to announce that they belong back at this level.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 55% for Under 2 sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. For the Saints, this is a chance to announce that they belong back at this level.

Model chance vs price55% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Neutral
For the Saints, this is a chance to announce.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +4.5 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because both teams’ recent low scoring and defensive setups suggest a match dominated by caution and few goals. Both sides therefore enter Gameweek One with genuine optimism, although neither can afford to treat this as a gentle introduction.

Main risk

Both sides therefore enter Gameweek One with genuine optimism, although neither can afford to treat this as a gentle introduction.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Both teams’ recent low scoring and defensive setups suggest a match dominated by caution and few goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5ST Johnstone wins
1Draws
4Kilmarnock wins
03 May 2025ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock0-2
15 Feb 2025Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone3-1
23 Nov 2024ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock1-0
11 Aug 2024Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone0-3
13 Apr 2024ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock0-2
23 Dec 2023Kilmarnock v ST Johnstone2-1
Best odds for this sectionKilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +9.7 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The head-to-head sample gives context for Kilmarnock to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Johnstone

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for ST Johnstone yet.

Kilmarnock

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Kilmarnock yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +11.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Kilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Johnstone-
Avg goals scored
Kilmarnock-
ST Johnstone-
Avg goals conceded
Kilmarnock-
ST Johnstone-
BTTS rate
Kilmarnock-
ST Johnstone-
Over 2.5 goals
Kilmarnock-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionKilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +9.7 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetfred guide price · model 30%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Kilmarnock to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premiership

ST Johnstone0
Played
Kilmarnock0
ST Johnstone0
Avg goals for
Kilmarnock0
ST Johnstone0
Avg goals against
Kilmarnock0
ST Johnstone0
Clean sheets
Kilmarnock0
Best odds for this sectionKilmarnock to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 31% · edge +9.7 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Kilmarnock Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Season data supports Kilmarnock to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Kilmarnock000000
10ST Johnstone000000
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-ST Johnstone Over 2.5
-Kilmarnock Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
For the Saints, this is a chance to announce that they belong back at this level.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

ST Johnstone v Kilmarnock prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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