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ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone
v
Hibernian crestHibernian

Premiership | Sun 06 Sep, 15:00

ST Johnstone v Hibernian Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premiership clash between ST Johnstone and Hibernian features two teams with contrasting recent defensive records and attacking potential. ST Johnstone have shown resilience at home, remaining unbeaten at McDiarmid Park since January 2025, but their defense has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game recently. Hibernian, despite recent home setbacks and defensive absences, have maintained an unbeaten streak in four competitive away matches, showcasing strong attacking threat with consistent chance creation. The tactical battle will revolve around Hibernian's transition threat and ST Johnstone's home defensive compactness, setting the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter with stakes high for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Hibernian's last four Premiership matches all featured over 2.5 goals.
  • ST Johnstone concede an average of 1.5 goals per game in recent matches.
  • Both teams have attacking players capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.
  • Hibernian are unbeaten in four competitive away matches, increasing goal-scoring chances.
  • Defensive absences for Hibernian raise the likelihood of open play and multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong pick due to Hibernian's consistent high-scoring matches and ST Johnstone's recent defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.5 goals per game. Both teams possess attacking players with proven goal threat, and Hibernian's unbeaten away form supports the likelihood of multiple goals. The 14.2% and 67.7% indicate a favorable price for this market. No data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection based on tactical and statistical evidence.

Hibernian's high-scoring matches100% over 2.5 rate in last 4 games
Strong positive
ST Johnstone's defensive record1.5 goals conceded per game
Positive
Value edge14.2% positive
Strong positive
Model confidence79%
Strong positive
Hibernian's unbeaten away run4 matches unbeaten
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and dynamic match as Hibernian's sustained away attacking threat meets ST Johnstone's resilient home defense. Both teams have shown tendencies to concede, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical outcome. The attacking roles and recent form suggest a lively encounter with multiple scoring opportunities for both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and defensive vulnerabilities

“Hibernian's ability to create quality chances away from home combined with ST Johnstone's defensive struggles sets the stage for a high-scoring game. The tactical interplay between Hibs' transition threat and St Johnstone's home resilience is key to unlocking goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Hibernian's last four Premiership matches all featured over 2.5 goals.

ST Johnstone concede an average of 1.5 goals per game in recent matches.

Both teams have attacking players capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.

Hibernian are unbeaten in four competitive away matches, increasing goal-scoring chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten meetings average 2.3 goals per game, with three of the last five encounters featuring three or more goals.
  • This recent trend supports the expectation of a match exceeding 2.5 goals, consistent with both teams' current attacking and defensive profiles.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Johnstone1.5
Avg goals scored
Hibernian1.5
ST Johnstone1.75
Avg goals conceded
Hibernian1.75
ST Johnstone75%
BTTS rate
Hibernian100%
ST Johnstone50%
Over 2.5 goals
Hibernian100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have demonstrated attacking potency and defensive frailty, with Hibernian's matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals and ST Johnstone conceding 1.5 goals per game. The combination of Hibernian's high expected goals and St Johnstone's home scoring supports a game with multiple goals and likely BTTS.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Hibernian to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Hibernian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with reflecting a 53.5% implied chance, while the model estimates a 67.7% probability, indicating clear value. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of multiple goals given both teams' recent scoring and conceding patterns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

ST Johnstone4.25
Avg corners for
Hibernian6
ST Johnstone8.75
Avg total corners
Hibernian11
ST Johnstone1.25
Avg yellow cards
Hibernian1.25
ST Johnstone12
Avg shots
Hibernian17.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Hibernian average 6 corners per game and 17.25 shots with 4.75 on target, indicating sustained attacking pressure. ST Johnstone also contribute with 4.25 corners and 12 shots per game. Both teams' fouling rates and card averages suggest a competitive match with set-piece opportunities contributing to goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Johnstone

DLLW
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
02 Sep 2026A Dundee1-1
29 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-2
08 Aug 2026A ST Mirren0-1
02 Aug 2026H Kilmarnock4-3

Hibernian

LWWL
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
03 Sep 2026H Heart Of Midlothian1-3
30 Aug 2026A Dundee2-1
09 Aug 2026A Rangers2-1
02 Aug 2026H Motherwell1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 71% · edge +5.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Hibernian to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Hibernian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Hibernian have scored and conceded 1.5 goals per game recently, with all four Premiership matches producing over 2.5 goals. ST Johnstone's recent form includes conceding in all last four matches and a 50% rate of over 2.5 goals, reflecting a trend toward open, goal-filled games.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3ST Johnstone wins
2Draws
5Hibernian wins
29 Mar 2025Hibernian v ST Johnstone3-0
02 Jan 2025ST Johnstone v Hibernian1-1
14 Sep 2024Hibernian v ST Johnstone2-0
27 Apr 2024ST Johnstone v Hibernian1-3
06 Apr 2024Hibernian v ST Johnstone1-2
16 Dec 2023ST Johnstone v Hibernian1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Hibernian to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Hibernian remain unbeaten in the last four meetings against ST Johnstone, including a recent 3-0 victory. While this supports Hibernian's attacking , the venue and current home form of ST Johnstone add complexity, suggesting a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Premiership

ST Johnstone4
Played
Hibernian4
ST Johnstone1.5
Avg goals for
Hibernian1.5
ST Johnstone1.8
Avg goals against
Hibernian1.8
ST Johnstone0
Clean sheets
Hibernian0
Best odds for this sectionHibernian to WinBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 40% · edge +9.4 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Hibernian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
ST Johnstone to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season-long data shows both teams maintain attacking output around 1.5 goals per game while conceding similarly high numbers, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring match. ST Johnstone's home scoring and Hibernian's away goal threat align with the Over 2.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Hibernian64202-1
9ST Johnstone44112-1
Hibernian sit 7th with 6 points, slightly ahead of 9th-placed ST Johnstone with 4 points. While standings show modest separation, both teams face pressure to secure points, encouraging attacking play and increasing the chance of goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%ST Johnstone Over 2.5
100%Hibernian Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings average 2.3 goals per game, with three of the last five encounters featuring three or more goals. This recent trend supports the expectation of a match exceeding 2.5 goals, consistent with both teams' current attacking and defensive profiles.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

ST Johnstone v Hibernian prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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