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SS Monopoli crestSS Monopoli
v
Savoia crestSavoia

Serie C - Girone C | Sat 03 Oct, 16:30

SS Monopoli v Savoia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SS Monopoli and Savoia meet in a Serie C - Girone C clash where defensive solidity is likely to dominate. SS Monopoli sits comfortably in 6th place with 11 points, showing a cautious approach with just 0.8 goals scored per game and a strong defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals on average. Savoia, positioned 17th with 6 points, also exhibits a low-scoring pattern, averaging 1.2 goals for and against. Both teams have a low rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a tactical battle with limited scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • SS Monopoli concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.
  • Savoia has a 60% rate of matches without both teams scoring, favoring low goal totals.
  • Both teams have only a 20% rate of games going over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Recent form shows SS Monopoli averaging 0.8 goals per game, supporting a low-scoring outlook.
  • No previous head-to-head data, but season trends point to cautious play and tight defenses.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and low scoring output. SS Monopoli's tight defense and Savoia's modest attack create a scenario where few goals are expected. The of 7.2% at of 1.7 confirms this market as a positive-value selection. The limited goal threat from both sides and their low over 2.5 goals rates underpin the model's in a low-scoring match.

Model Chance66% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.2 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge66% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredSS Monopoli 0.8, Savoia 1.2 per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateBoth teams 20%
Strong positive
BTTS RateSS Monopoli 20%, Savoia 60%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given SS Monopoli's disciplined defense and Savoia's struggle to score consistently. The data suggests a tactical, low-tempo encounter where both teams prioritize defensive stability over attacking risk, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture looks set for a tight, tactical battle with both sides showing defensive caution and limited attacking firepower, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical and data-backed choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

SS Monopoli concedes only 0.6 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization.

Savoia has a 60% rate of matches without both teams scoring, favoring low goal totals.

Recent form shows SS Monopoli averaging 0.8 goals per game, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • No head-to-head data exists, but recent trends in the last five matches for both teams show a strong tendency towards Under 2.5 Goals, with only 20% of their games exceeding this threshold.
  • This trend reflects a slower tempo and defensive caution that is likely to continue in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SS Monopoli0.8
Avg goals scored
Savoia1.2
SS Monopoli0.6
Avg goals conceded
Savoia1.2
SS Monopoli20%
BTTS rate
Savoia60%
SS Monopoli20%
Over 2.5 goals
Savoia20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both teams show low scoring and BTTS rates, with SS Monopoli scoring 0.8 goals per game and Savoia 1.2. Savoia's 60% BTTS rate is higher but balanced by SS Monopoli's strong defense and low BTTS rate, suggesting a controlled game with limited goal exchanges and a likely BTTS No outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SS Monopoli

WDDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
27 Sep 2026A Casarano1-0
20 Sep 2026H Crotone2-2
15 Sep 2026A Scafatese0-0
12 Sep 2026H Foggia1-0
05 Sep 2026A Potenza0-1

Savoia

LDDDW
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
26 Sep 2026A Cavese2-4
19 Sep 2026H Casarano1-1
15 Sep 2026A Foggia0-0
12 Sep 2026H Crotone1-1
06 Sep 2026A Team Altamura2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Savoia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3
Check odds @ 3
Savoia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 79%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
SS Monopoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
SS Monopoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows SS Monopoli with 8 points and a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game. Savoia has 6 points but concedes more, averaging 1.2 goals against. Both teams have a 20% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring encounter.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSavoia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 33% · edge +8.9 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Savoia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 33%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
SS Monopoli to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
SS Monopoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+7.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for SS Monopoli and 20% for Savoia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%SS Monopoli Over 2.5
20%Savoia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
No head-to-head data exists, but recent trends in the last five matches for both teams show a strong tendency towards Under 2.5 Goals, with only 20% of their games exceeding this threshold. This trend reflects a slower tempo and defensive caution that is likely to continue in this fixture.

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