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Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City
v
Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers

Major League Soccer | Sun 11 Oct, 01:30

Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers meet in a Major League Soccer fixture where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open game. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring matches recently, with Sporting Kansas City averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, while Portland Timbers average 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. With both sides eager to climb the standings and secure playoff positioning, expect an intense encounter marked by offensive pressure and defensive risks that could lead to multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Recent form shows Sporting Kansas City scoring 2.4 goals per game and conceding 2.2, indicating open play.
  • Portland Timbers also have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, with 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 4.3 goals per game, highlighting a history of high-scoring encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a favorable bet with a 57.9% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 54.6%, indicating a small positive . Both Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers have strong attacking outputs and porous defenses, contributing to high-scoring games. The teams' recent form and historical head-to-head average of 4.3 goals per match reinforce the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance57.9% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57.9% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.3 pts)
Neutral
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals4.3 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as both Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers have shown defensive vulnerabilities and strong offensive capabilities. The high average goals scored and conceded by both teams suggest this fixture will produce multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice based on tactical openness and recent scoring trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match scoring potential

“This matchup features two sides with attacking firepower but defensive fragility, setting the stage for a high-scoring game that should surpass three goals comfortably.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season.

Recent form shows Sporting Kansas City scoring 2.4 goals per game and conceding 2.2, indicating open play.

Portland Timbers also have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, with 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match.

Head-to-head meetings average 4.3 goals per game, highlighting a history of high-scoring encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.3, indicating a consistent trend of high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, driven by open play and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sporting Kansas City2.4
Avg goals scored
Portland Timbers1.8
Sporting Kansas City2.2
Avg goals conceded
Portland Timbers2.4
Sporting Kansas City80%
BTTS rate
Portland Timbers80%
Sporting Kansas City80%
Over 2.5 goals
Portland Timbers80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a strong BTTS rate, indicating frequent goal exchanges. Sporting Kansas City scores and concedes over two goals per game, while Portland Timbers also show a tendency for open games, supporting expectations for multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSporting Kansas City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Sporting Kansas City to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+3.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Sporting Kansas City and 80% for Portland Timbers, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sporting Kansas City

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
02 Oct 2026A Seattle Sounders1-2
27 Sep 2026A Houston Dynamo2-0
20 Sep 2026H Philadelphia Union3-4
13 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC3-1
06 Sep 2026A FC Dallas3-4

Portland Timbers

LLLDW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
27 Sep 2026A San Jose Earthquakes1-3
20 Sep 2026H Atlanta United FC0-1
13 Sep 2026A FC Dallas1-2
10 Sep 2026H St. Louis City2-2
06 Sep 2026H Minnesota United FC5-4
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 83% vs implied 69% · edge +13.2 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Sporting Kansas City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Sporting Kansas City to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Portland Timbers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Portland Timbers to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Recent form data shows Sporting Kansas City scoring 2.4 goals per game and Portland Timbers 1.8, with both conceding over two goals per match. Their high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% reflects a pattern of open, high-scoring games, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Sporting Kansas City Over 2.5
80%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
4.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 4.3, indicating a consistent trend of high-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, driven by open play and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

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