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Sport Recife crestSport Recife
v
Cuiaba crestCuiaba

Serie B | Mon 27 Jul, 23:30

Sport Recife v Cuiaba Stats

Data last updated: Sun 26 Jul 2026, 04:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sport Recife and Cuiaba face off in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown a tendency towards tight matches. Sport Recife, ranked 9th, have struggled defensively conceding 1.8 goals per game, while Cuiaba, 15th, have a slightly better defensive record but less attacking firepower. Recent form suggests cautious play with both sides averaging around 1 to 1.4 goals scored per match. The tactical setup likely prioritizes defensive solidity over open attacking play, making a low-scoring game probable in this encounter.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Sport Recife concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited attacking output.
  • Cuiaba averages 1 goal per game with a lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%), suggesting fewer high-scoring matches.
  • Both teams have moderate shot volumes but limited shots on target, reflecting controlled attacking approaches.
  • Recent form data shows Sport Recife’s matches go over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, but Cuiaba only 40%, balancing the expectation towards fewer goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance based on both teams' scoring and defensive profiles. Sport Recife's higher goals conceded contrasts with Cuiaba's more conservative attack, leading to a balanced expectation of fewer goals. The average goals in their recent meetings is low, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight scoreline. The data quality is strong with no limitations, supporting a confident forecast for a low-scoring match.

Model Probability66% chance of Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Recent Goals ScoredSport Recife 1.4, Cuiaba 1.0 per game
Positive
Defensive RecordsSport Recife concedes 1.8, Cuiaba concedes 1.4 per game
Neutral
Head-to-Head Average Goals1 goal per match over last 5 meetings
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the tactical and form realities of both teams. Sport Recife's defensive struggles are tempered by Cuiaba's modest attacking threat, suggesting a cautious contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The low average goals in their recent head-to-head matches further supports a tight, low-scoring encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive balance

“This fixture is shaped by cautious tactics and balanced defensive profiles, making a low-scoring outcome the most plausible scenario despite some defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Sport Recife concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited attacking output.

Both teams have moderate shot volumes but limited shots on target, reflecting controlled attacking approaches.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches between these teams, the average goals scored is just 1 per game, highlighting a trend towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a steady tempo with defensive discipline prevailing, reinforcing the likelihood of an Under 2.5 Goals outcome in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sport Recife5.2
Avg corners for
Cuiaba7.2
Sport Recife8.4
Avg total corners
Cuiaba9.8
Sport Recife2.6
Avg yellow cards
Cuiaba2.6
Sport Recife16
Avg shots
Cuiaba15.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 52% · edge +3.8 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams generate a moderate number of shots and corners, with Sport Recife averaging 16 shots and 5.2 corners, Cuiaba 15.4 shots and 7.2 corners. Discipline is balanced, with both sides averaging 2.6 yellow cards per game, suggesting a competitive but controlled match environment with steady territorial exchanges and set-piece opportunities.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Cuiaba Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Cuiaba to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Sport Recife to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The Under 2.5 Goals market reflects a reasonable price given the model's 66% probability. While not a standout value bet, the align well with the expected low-scoring nature of the match, making it a solid choice without significant price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sport Recife

DDDLL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
23 Jul 2026A Goias1-1
18 Jul 2026H Operario-PR2-2
11 Jul 2026H Botafogo SP3-3
04 Jul 2026A Criciuma0-1
28 Jun 2026A Fortaleza EC1-2

Cuiaba

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
24 Jul 2026H Atletico Goianiense0-1
17 Jul 2026A Juventude0-2
12 Jul 2026A São Bernardo2-2
03 Jul 2026H America Mineiro1-0
26 Jun 2026H Londrina2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Cuiaba Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Cuiaba to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Sport Recife to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Sport Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Recent form data shows Sport Recife with 3 points and 1.4 goals per game, while Cuiaba has 5 points and 1 goal per game. Sport Recife's matches have a higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) compared to Cuiaba's 40%, reflecting a tendency for more open games at home but tempered by Cuiaba's defensive approach, supporting an under 2.5 goals expectation.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sport Recife1.4
Avg goals scored
Cuiaba1
Sport Recife1.8
Avg goals conceded
Cuiaba1.4
Sport Recife80%
BTTS rate
Cuiaba40%
Sport Recife60%
Over 2.5 goals
Cuiaba40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Goal trends show Sport Recife's matches exceed 2.5 goals 60% of the time, but Cuiaba's lower 40% rate balances this out. Both teams have moderate BTTS rates, with Sport Recife at 80% and Cuiaba at 40%, indicating that while Sport Recife often concedes and scores, Cuiaba's matches tend to be tighter, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Sport Recife wins
3Draws
1Cuiaba wins
21 Mar 2026Cuiaba v Sport Recife0-0
14 Oct 2021Cuiaba v Sport Recife1-0
28 Jun 2021Sport Recife v Cuiaba0-0
15 Oct 2019Sport Recife v Cuiaba2-0
16 Jul 2019Cuiaba v Sport Recife1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Cuiaba to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Sport Recife to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The head-to-head record over five matches shows an average of only 1 goal per game, indicating historically tight contests. This low scoring average weakly supports the Under 2.5 Goals pick by demonstrating a pattern of defensive resilience and limited attacking breakthroughs in their meetings.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Sport Recife281961036
15Cuiaba24195950
Sport Recife sits 9th with 28 points, while Cuiaba is 15th with 24 points, indicating a mid-table clash with moderate stakes. Neither team is under intense pressure to chase high-scoring games, which suggests a tactical approach favoring defensive caution and controlled tempo, aligning with the low goals forecast.
Season team stats

Serie B

Sport Recife19
Played
Cuiaba19
Sport Recife1.3
Avg goals for
Cuiaba0.7
Sport Recife0.9
Avg goals against
Cuiaba0.7
Sport Recife7
Clean sheets
Cuiaba9
Best odds for this sectionCuiaba Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Cuiaba to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Sport Recife to WinBetfred guide price · model 36%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Sport Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season-long stats reveal Sport Recife concedes more goals (1.8 per game) than Cuiaba (1.4), but both teams have modest scoring rates. This defensive solidity combined with moderate attacking output supports a lower scoring match, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Sport Recife Over 2.5
40%Cuiaba Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last five matches between these teams, the average goals scored is just 1 per game, highlighting a trend towards low-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a steady tempo with defensive discipline prevailing, reinforcing the likelihood of an Under 2.5 Goals outcome in this fixture.

Related football research

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