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Southend crestSouthend
v
AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde

National League | Sat 03 Oct, 15:00

Southend v AFC Fylde Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Southend hosts AFC Fylde in a National League clash where both sides are closely matched in the standings, with Southend third and AFC Fylde fifth. Southend has shown attacking promise but also defensive vulnerability, while AFC Fylde boasts a solid defensive record and consistent recent form. The fixture promises tactical discipline from AFC Fylde aiming to avoid defeat, while Southend seeks to capitalize on home advantage. The contest is poised for a competitive battle with AFC Fylde likely to secure at least a draw given their resilience and form.

BT4Y best bet

AFC Fylde or Draw

  • AFC Fylde has a strong recent form with 9 points compared to Southend's 8.
  • Southend scores more goals on average but concedes more, indicating defensive risk.
  • AFC Fylde concedes fewer goals, supporting a draw or away double chance.
  • Both teams have moderate Over 2.5 goals rates, suggesting potential for goals but balanced by defensive solidity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors AFC Fylde or Draw with a 68.6% chance, reflecting AFC Fylde's solid defensive record and consistent recent form. Southend's higher goals conceded rate and slightly weaker defensive stats increase the likelihood of AFC Fylde avoiding defeat. The at 2.1 offer positive value given the implied chance of 47.6%, making this a sensible double chance pick. The data quality is good, supporting in the defensive and form indicators that underpin this selection.

Model Chance39.2% model chance vs 25% implied (+14.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance39.2% model chance vs 25% implied (+14.2 pts)
Positive
Value Edge39.2% model chance vs 25% implied (+14.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormAFC Fylde slightly better points tally
Positive
Defensive RecordAFC Fylde concedes fewer goals
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AFC Fylde's disciplined defensive approach and recent points accumulation make them a reliable pick to avoid defeat against Southend. Southend's attacking threat is notable but their defensive lapses increase the chance of AFC Fylde securing at least a draw. This tactical balance and form data support the double chance selection.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and form underpin the double chance pick

“AFC Fylde's defensive resilience and consistent form provide a strong foundation to secure at least a draw here, especially against a Southend side that concedes frequently despite their attacking efforts.”

Key Data Signals

AFC Fylde or Draw evidence

AFC Fylde has a strong recent form with 9 points compared to Southend's 8.

Southend scores more goals on average but concedes more, indicating defensive risk.

AFC Fylde concedes fewer goals, supporting a draw or away double chance.

Both teams have moderate Over 2.5 goals rates, suggesting potential for goals but balanced by defensive solidity.

What To Watch In The Data

AFC Fylde or Draw notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderately open games.
  • Southend's 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with AFC Fylde's 60%, suggesting Southend pushes for higher tempo and scoring, but AFC Fylde's defensive approach tempers the overall goal flow, supporting a balanced match with potential for goals but also defensive containment.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Southend2.8
Avg goals scored
AFC Fylde1.6
Southend1.8
Avg goals conceded
AFC Fylde1.2
Southend100%
BTTS rate
AFC Fylde60%
Southend80%
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Fylde60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Southend averages 2.8 goals scored and concedes 1.8 per game, with a 100% BTTS rate, indicating open games. AFC Fylde scores less but concedes fewer goals with a 60% BTTS rate. This suggests a match with potential goals but also defensive discipline, supporting a cautious double chance rather than a high-scoring bet.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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AFC Fylde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Southend Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Southend to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 39.2% for AFC Fylde or Draw sits against roughly 25% implied by the current price (+14.2 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Southend

DLWWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
30 Sep 2026A Eastleigh1-1
26 Sep 2026H Barrow2-4
19 Sep 2026A Gateshead6-1
15 Sep 2026H Tamworth3-1
12 Sep 2026A Carlisle2-2

AFC Fylde

LWLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
29 Sep 2026H Carlisle0-2
26 Sep 2026A Boston United1-0
19 Sep 2026H Altrincham1-2
15 Sep 2026A Harrogate Town2-1
12 Sep 2026A Yeovil Town4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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AFC Fylde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Southend Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Southend to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
AFC Fylde holds a slight edge in recent form with 9 points compared to Southend's 8, reflecting steadier results. Southend's higher goals scored are offset by more goals conceded, indicating vulnerability. This form trend supports AFC Fylde's ability to avoid defeat in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Southend Over 2.5
60%AFC Fylde Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating moderately open games. Southend's 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with AFC Fylde's 60%, suggesting Southend pushes for higher tempo and scoring, but AFC Fylde's defensive approach tempers the overall goal flow, supporting a balanced match with potential for goals but also defensive containment.

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