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South Korea crestSouth Korea
v
Venezuela crestVenezuela

Friendlies | Fri 02 Oct, 12:00

South Korea v Venezuela Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

South Korea faces Venezuela in a friendly match that offers both teams a chance to test attacking options and tactical setups. South Korea arrives with stronger recent form, having collected 9 points with a solid defensive record, while Venezuela has struggled for consistency, earning 3 points and conceding more goals on average. The match will likely see South Korea leverage their home advantage and sharper offensive players to control tempo and create scoring opportunities, while Venezuela aims to disrupt and counterattack. This encounter provides a valuable platform for South Korea to assert control and build ahead of competitive fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

South Korea to Win

  • South Korea holds a 74% to win, with positive value at 1.67 .
  • South Korea averages 13.6 shots per game with 6.2 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Venezuela concedes 1.33 goals per game, higher than South Korea's 1.0, suggesting defensive vulnerability.
  • South Korea's recent form shows 9 points with a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals matches, supporting attacking potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors South Korea to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. South Korea's higher shot volume and better defensive record underpin this . The price offers positive value, as the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's estimate. While Venezuela has shown some attacking threat, their defensive frailties and inconsistent results make South Korea the stronger side. This rationale assumes standard line-ups and no major last-minute changes, with player-level data reinforcing South Korea's offensive depth.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance74% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+14.1 pts)
Positive
Recent Form PointsSouth Korea 9 vs Venezuela 3
Strong positive
Average Shots per GameSouth Korea 13.6 vs Venezuela 9
Strong positive
Defensive Concession RateSouth Korea 1.0 vs Venezuela 1.33
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

South Korea's recent form and attacking firepower position them as favorites in this friendly. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Venezuela's inconsistency, making a home win the most plausible outcome. Tactical control and sharper finishing should secure South Korea the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“South Korea's offensive depth and recent momentum make them the clear favorite to secure victory, especially given Venezuela's defensive vulnerabilities and lower shot creation rates.”

Key Data Signals

South Korea to Win evidence

South Korea holds a 74% to win, with positive value at 1.67 .

South Korea averages 13.6 shots per game with 6.2 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Venezuela concedes 1.33 goals per game, higher than South Korea's 1.0, suggesting defensive vulnerability.

South Korea's recent form shows 9 points with a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals matches, supporting attacking potential.

What To Watch In The Data

South Korea to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, South Korea has featured in 60% of games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting an attacking tempo conducive to scoring.
  • Venezuela's 67% over 2.5 rate also suggests openness, but South Korea's defensive discipline may temper the goal count, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game rather than a goal fest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

South Korea2
Avg goals scored
Venezuela1.33
South Korea1
Avg goals conceded
Venezuela1.33
South Korea20%
BTTS rate
Venezuela67%
South Korea60%
Over 2.5 goals
Venezuela67%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 83% vs implied 71% · edge +11.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
South Korea's matches feature a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open play and scoring opportunities. Venezuela's higher BTTS rate of 67% suggests they often concede and score, which could lead to goal-rich phases. However, South Korea's lower BTTS rate of 20% points to a more controlled approach, likely focusing on securing a win rather than an open shootout.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSouth Korea to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
South Korea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 74% for South Korea to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+14.1 pts). South Korea have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 3 for Venezuela.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

South Korea

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 3L
28 Sep 2026H Uruguay1-4
24 Sep 2026H Ecuador3-0
04 Jun 2026H El Salvador1-0
31 May 2026H Trinidad and Tobago5-0
31 Mar 2026A Austria0-1

Venezuela

LWL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
28 Sep 2026A Japan1-2
10 Jun 2026A Iraq2-0
06 Jun 2026H Türkiye1-2
Market aligned with main pickSouth Korea to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
South Korea Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
South Korea's recent form is strong, accumulating 9 points with a solid defensive record of 1 goal conceded per game. Venezuela's form is less convincing with only 3 points and a higher concession rate of 1.33 goals per game. This contrast in momentum and defensive stability favors South Korea's likelihood to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%South Korea Over 2.5
67%Venezuela Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, South Korea has featured in 60% of games with over 2.5 goals, reflecting an attacking tempo conducive to scoring. Venezuela's 67% over 2.5 rate also suggests openness, but South Korea's defensive discipline may temper the goal count, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game rather than a goal fest.

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