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South Korea crestSouth Korea
v
Uruguay crestUruguay

Friendlies | Mon 28 Sep, 12:00

South Korea v Uruguay Stats

Data last updated: Sun 27 Sep 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

South Korea faces Uruguay in a friendly that offers both teams a chance to test their squads and tactics ahead of more competitive fixtures. South Korea enters this match with strong recent form, having collected 9 points in their last games and showing a potent attack averaging 1.8 goals per match. Uruguay, by contrast, has struggled for consistency, scoring less frequently and accumulating only 2 points recently. The match will likely see South Korea pushing to impose their tempo and capitalize on their offensive momentum, while Uruguay aims to stabilize and find attacking rhythm against a confident opponent.

BT4Y best bet

South Korea to Win

  • South Korea has won 9 points recently, showing strong form.
  • Uruguay has only 2 points in recent matches, indicating struggles.
  • South Korea averages 13.2 shots per game with 5.2 on target, reflecting attacking pressure.
  • Uruguay averages fewer shots (9.67) and shots on target (2.67), suggesting less offensive threat.
  • South Korea’s Over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, higher than Uruguay’s 33%, indicating more open games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors South Korea to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking statistics. South Korea’s higher shot volume, better goal-scoring rate, and recent points tally underpin this . Uruguay’s lower scoring and points accumulation reduce their chances. The at 2.25 offer positive value given the model’s implied chance of 44.4%. No data limitations affect this assessment, making South Korea a strong pick based on current form and attacking control.

Recent form pointsSouth Korea 9, Uruguay 2
Strong positive
Average shots per gameSouth Korea 13.2, Uruguay 9.67
Strong positive
Goals per gameSouth Korea 1.8, Uruguay 0.67
Strong positive
Model win probability74% for South Korea
Strong positive
Market implied chance59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

South Korea’s recent attacking form and higher shot volume suggest they will control the game tempo and create more scoring opportunities. Uruguay’s struggles to convert chances and lower recent points tally make South Korea the favored side to win this friendly.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“South Korea’s offensive momentum and consistent recent results position them well to claim victory in this friendly, especially given Uruguay’s current scoring challenges.”

Key Data Signals

South Korea to Win evidence

South Korea has won 9 points recently, showing strong form.

Uruguay has only 2 points in recent matches, indicating struggles.

South Korea averages 13.2 shots per game with 5.2 on target, reflecting attacking pressure.

Uruguay averages fewer shots (9.67) and shots on target (2.67), suggesting less offensive threat.

What To Watch In The Data

South Korea to Win notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating moderately open games.
  • South Korea’s higher Over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests a tendency for more attacking play, which could influence the tempo and scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

South Korea1.8
Avg goals scored
Uruguay0.67
South Korea1
Avg goals conceded
Uruguay1.33
South Korea0%
BTTS rate
Uruguay67%
South Korea60%
Over 2.5 goals
Uruguay33%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 44% · edge +3 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
South Korea’s matches show a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games. Uruguay’s lower 33% Over 2.5 rate suggests more cautious play. The average goals in their recent meetings (2.25) supports a moderate scoring expectation, with South Korea’s offense likely to drive goal opportunities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSouth Korea to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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South Korea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 59.4% for South Korea to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). South Korea have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Uruguay.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

South Korea

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 2L
24 Sep 2026H Ecuador3-0
04 Jun 2026H El Salvador1-0
31 May 2026H Trinidad and Tobago5-0
31 Mar 2026A Austria0-1
28 Mar 2026H Ivory Coast0-4

Uruguay

LDD
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
24 Sep 2026A Japan1-3
31 Mar 2026A Algeria0-0
27 Mar 2026A England1-1
Market aligned with main pickSouth Korea to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
South Korea Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
South Korea’s recent form is impressive, securing 9 points with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 1 conceded per match. Uruguay’s form is less convincing, with just 2 points and a lower scoring rate of 0.67 goals per game. This contrast in momentum favors South Korea’s likelihood to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%South Korea Over 2.5
33%Uruguay Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating moderately open games. South Korea’s higher Over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests a tendency for more attacking play, which could influence the tempo and scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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