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Slovenia crestSlovenia
v
FYR Macedonia crestFYR Macedonia

UEFA Nations League | Tue 29 Sep, 19:45

Slovenia v FYR Macedonia Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovenia and FYR Macedonia meet in a UEFA Nations League clash where both teams have shown cautious approaches in recent matches. Slovenia has secured a point without conceding, while FYR Macedonia has struggled defensively, conceding three goals in their last outing. Both sides appear to prioritize defensive solidity, with low goal-scoring outputs and a tactical setup that suggests a tight contest. The match carries importance for group standings, encouraging a measured game with limited risk-taking in attack from both teams.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS No

  • Slovenia has not conceded or scored in recent matches, indicating tight defensive play.
  • FYR Macedonia conceded 3 goals in their last match, showing defensive vulnerability but limited attacking threat.
  • Both teams have a 0% BTTS rate recently, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Slovenia averages 5 corners per game compared to FYR Macedonia's 0, indicating more attacking pressure from Slovenia.
  • FYR Macedonia's top attackers like B. Trajkovski have goal threat but limited recent scoring impact.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors BTTS No with a 68% chance, reflecting both teams' recent low-scoring trends and defensive focus. Slovenia's clean sheet record and FYR Macedonia's inability to score recently underpin this view. The at 1.67 offer positive value given the implied chance of 59.9%. The data shows limited shots on target and low BTTS rates, reinforcing the expectation of a tight, low-scoring match. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Recent BTTS Rate0% for both teams
Strong positive
Shots on TargetLow averages: Slovenia 1, FYR Macedonia 0
Positive
Defensive RecordsSlovenia no goals conceded recently
Strong positive
Model Confidence77% confidence in BTTS No
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge68% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+8.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The tactical setup and recent form data suggest a cautious, low-scoring encounter between Slovenia and FYR Macedonia. Slovenia's defensive discipline and FYR Macedonia's limited offensive output support the BTTS No selection. This bet aligns with the teams' current momentum and tactical priorities, making it a sensible choice for this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and defensive analysis

“This match is poised to be a tight, defensively disciplined affair with both teams unlikely to concede, making BTTS No a logical and data-backed selection.”

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

Slovenia has not conceded or scored in recent matches, indicating tight defensive play.

FYR Macedonia conceded 3 goals in their last match, showing defensive vulnerability but limited attacking threat.

Both teams have a 0% BTTS rate recently, supporting a low-scoring game.

Slovenia averages 5 corners per game compared to FYR Macedonia's 0, indicating more attacking pressure from Slovenia.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderate scoring historically.
  • However, recent trends show both teams favoring defensive caution and low BTTS rates.
  • This suggests that while goals are possible, the tempo and defensive focus in this fixture will likely suppress goal totals below 2.5.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Slovenia0
Avg goals scored
FYR Macedonia0
Slovenia0
Avg goals conceded
FYR Macedonia3
Slovenia0%
BTTS rate
FYR Macedonia0%
Slovenia0%
Over 2.5 goals
FYR Macedonia100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +8.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown a strong tendency towards low-scoring matches, with Slovenia not conceding or scoring recently and FYR Macedonia failing to score in their last matches. The zero BTTS rate for both sides supports a controlled goals environment where defensive caution dominates, reducing the likelihood of both teams scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFYR Macedonia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Slovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
FYR Macedonia to WinBetfred guide price · model 17%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
The 68% for BTTS No sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+8.1 pts). Slovenia show a 0% BTTS rate and FYR Macedonia show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Slovenia

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
26 Sep 2026H Scotland0-0

FYR Macedonia

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
26 Sep 2026H Switzerland0-3
Best odds for this sectionFYR Macedonia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 83%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Slovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
FYR Macedonia to WinBetfred guide price · model 17%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Recent form data shows Slovenia securing a point without conceding and FYR Macedonia failing to score while conceding three goals. Both teams have a 0% BTTS rate in recent matches, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring game. This form suggests defensive solidity and limited attacking success, supporting the BTTS No selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Slovenia Over 2.5
100%FYR Macedonia Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderate scoring historically. However, recent trends show both teams favoring defensive caution and low BTTS rates. This suggests that while goals are possible, the tempo and defensive focus in this fixture will likely suppress goal totals below 2.5.

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