Football Stats Hub

Slovakia crestSlovakia
v
Moldova crestMoldova

UEFA Nations League | Sat 26 Sep, 19:45

Slovakia v Moldova Stats

Data last updated: Sat 17 Oct 2026, 05:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovakia face Moldova in UEFA Nations League on Sat 26 Sep, 19:45. Backing Over 2.5 Goals suits this Nations League clash as both teams show attacking consistency and defensive frailty. Slovakia’s six-match unbeaten run with 11 goals adds to the likelihood of multiple goals despite their away struggles.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 57%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 3/4, Over 2 implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
Price warning

Over 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 50% (-7.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Moldova Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 6.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Over 2 sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -7.1 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Over 2.5 Goals. However, there are vulnerabilities behind those numbers.

Main risk

However, there are vulnerabilities behind those numbers.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Selection: Over that scoring level.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Slovakia-
Avg goals scored
Moldova-
Slovakia-
Avg goals conceded
Moldova-
Slovakia-
BTTS rate
Moldova-
Slovakia-
Over 2.5 goals
Moldova-
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 65% · edge -15.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 65% · edge -15.4 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Moldova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Slovakia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Slovakia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 15%
7
Check odds @ 7
Over 2.5 Goals is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Slovakia

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Slovakia yet.

Moldova

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Moldova yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Load more odds for this section
Moldova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Slovakia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Slovakia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 15%
7
Check odds @ 7
Moldova to WinBet365 guide price · model 9%
15
Check odds @ 15
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Slovakia Over 2.5
-Moldova Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Loading deeper match data…