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Shamrock Rovers crestShamrock Rovers
v
Floriana crestFloriana

UEFA Champions League | Tue 14 Jul, 20:00

Shamrock Rovers v Floriana Stats

Data last updated: Wed 05 Aug 2026, 03:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Shamrock Rovers face Floriana in UEFA Champions League on Tue 14 Jul, 20:00. The Hoops are seven points clear at the top of the League of Ireland and have taken three wins from their last four league matches, underlining the domestic form behind their comeback attempt.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 80%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 1/4, Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches implies roughly 80%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Shamrock Rovers have home support, stronger competitive rhythm and enough evidence from the first leg to believe the contest is not finished.
  • Floriana have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Shamrock Rovers.
  • Floriana have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches angle more than.
Price warning

Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 80% while the model sits nearer 27% (-53 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 2.08.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches sits against roughly 80% implied by the current price. Floriana have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Shamrock Rovers. Shamrock Rovers have home support, stronger competitive rhythm and enough evidence from the first leg to believe the contest is not finished.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 80% implied
Negative
Floriana have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Floriana have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Shamrock Rovers have home support, stronger competitive rhythm.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Shamrock Rovers Win is the preferred angle because shamrock Rovers have home support, stronger competitive rhythm and enough evidence from the first leg to believe the contest is not finished. Floriana have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Shamrock Rovers. That does not automatically make them physically inferior, especially after such a disciplined opening performance, but it creates a fascinating contrast.

Main risk

That does not automatically make them physically inferior, especially after such a disciplined opening performance, but it creates a fascinating contrast.

Key Data Signals

Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches evidence

Shamrock Rovers have home support, stronger competitive rhythm and enough evidence from the first leg to believe the.

Floriana have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Shamrock Rovers.

Floriana have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Shamrock Rovers Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Shamrock Rovers to Win The hosts have secured three victories from their last four domestic league matches notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Shamrock Rovers0
    Avg goals scored
    Floriana2
    Shamrock Rovers2
    Avg goals conceded
    Floriana0
    Shamrock Rovers0%
    BTTS rate
    Floriana0%
    Shamrock Rovers0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Floriana0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 33%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Shamrock Rovers

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    07 Jul 2026A Floriana0-2

    Floriana

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    07 Jul 2026H Shamrock Rovers2-0
    Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 77% · edge -49.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.06
    Check odds @ 1.06
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 77% · edge -49.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 33%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Shamrock Rovers to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Shamrock Rovers wins
    0Draws
    1Floriana wins
    07 Jul 2026Floriana v Shamrock Rovers2-0
    Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 77% · edge -49.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 33%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Shamrock Rovers to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    UEFA Champions League

    Shamrock Rovers4
    Played
    Floriana2
    Shamrock Rovers1.8
    Avg goals for
    Floriana1.5
    Shamrock Rovers1.5
    Avg goals against
    Floriana2.5
    Shamrock Rovers0
    Clean sheets
    Floriana1
    Market aligned with main pickShamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 77% · edge -49.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.16
    Check odds @ 1.16
    Season data supports Shamrock Rovers to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Shamrock Rovers Over 2.5
    0%Floriana Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Shamrock Rovers sit at 0% and Floriana sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.