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La Liga | Fri 11 Sep, 20:00

Sevilla v Valencia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sevilla and Valencia meet in a crucial La Liga clash with only one point separating them in the table, intensifying the stakes near the relegation zone. Sevilla's home form has been underwhelming, securing just 16 points from 14 matches, while Valencia boasts a more stable defensive record with 10 clean sheets this season. Both teams have struggled for wins recently, and their tactical setups suggest a cautious, tightly contested encounter. Sevilla's wide attacking play contrasts with Valencia's compact defensive structure, setting the stage for a match where neither side wants to lose ground to their direct rival.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Draw

  • Sevilla have drawn three of their last four league games against Valencia.
  • Both teams average around 11 shots per match, indicating attacking intent but limited clinical edge.
  • Valencia have kept 10 clean sheets this season compared to Sevilla's 5, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Recent meetings have consistently seen under 2.5 goals, suggesting a low-scoring game.
  • The reverse fixture ended 1-1, reflecting the tight nature of this rivalry.
Price warning

Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 30% while the model sits nearer 18% (-12.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Sevilla to Win shows a +15 pts edge at 2.1.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The draw selection reflects the strong historical pattern between Sevilla and Valencia, who have drawn three of their last four league meetings. Both teams exhibit similar attacking volumes but lack a decisive finishing edge, compounded by Sevilla's key suspension and Valencia's defensive discipline. Although the is below the market implied probability, the football context supports a stalemate given the tactical caution, recent form, and tight table margins. Reduced staking is advised due to the short price, with improvements in line-ups or drift needed for stronger value.

Historical Draw Frequency3 draws in last 4 league meetings
Strong positive
Defensive SolidityValencia's 10 clean sheets vs Sevilla's 5
Positive
Attacking VolumeBoth average ~11 shots per match
Neutral
Price SensitivityModel chance 18% vs market implied 34.8%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The draw is a tactically sound pick given the tight competition and similar quality levels, with both teams likely to prioritize defensive organization over risky attacking play. Data shows a consistent pattern of stalemates and low scoring, reinforcing the expectation of a closely fought match ending level.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sevilla's home struggles combined with Valencia's defensive resilience make a draw the most probable outcome in this high-stakes fixture, where neither side can afford to lose ground.”

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Sevilla have drawn three of their last four league games against Valencia.

Both teams average around 11 shots per match, indicating attacking intent but limited clinical edge.

Valencia have kept 10 clean sheets this season compared to Sevilla's 5, highlighting defensive solidity.

Recent meetings have consistently seen under 2.5 goals, suggesting a low-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

  • The last 10 meetings between Sevilla and Valencia have averaged 2 goals per game, with a strong trend towards under 2.5 goals.
  • This sample indicates a low-tempo, defensively cautious fixture pattern, suggesting that Over 2.5 Goals is unlikely and supporting the low-scoring draw scenario.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sevilla1.75
Avg goals scored
Valencia0.25
Sevilla1.5
Avg goals conceded
Valencia2.25
Sevilla100%
BTTS rate
Valencia25%
Sevilla75%
Over 2.5 goals
Valencia50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 33%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams average around 11 shots per match but have mid-table conversion rates, suggesting chances will be created but finishing may be limited. Valencia's strong clean sheet record and Sevilla's home vulnerabilities point to a low-scoring game, consistent with recent under 2.5 goals outcomes in their meetings and supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 18% vs implied 30% · edge -12.3 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Sevilla Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Sevilla to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Valencia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Valencia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The draw market is priced short with an implied chance of 34.8%, significantly above the model's 18% probability. This indicates a price-sensitive situation where the football read justifies the selection but staking should be reduced. drift or late team news improving the draw likelihood would enhance value.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sevilla3
Avg corners for
Valencia3.75
Sevilla6.5
Avg total corners
Valencia7
Sevilla3.5
Avg yellow cards
Valencia1.5
Sevilla11.5
Avg shots
Valencia9.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 55% · edge -12.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Sevilla averages 3 corners and 3.5 yellow cards per game, reflecting an aggressive, wide attacking style that generates set-piece opportunities but also disciplinary risks. Valencia's lower averages in corners and cards indicate a more compact, disciplined approach. This contrast suggests a match with territorial battles, fouls, and set-piece chances but controlled shot volumes, aligning with a tight contest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sevilla

DLWW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Espanyol1-1
29 Aug 2026H Atletico Madrid1-3
22 Aug 2026A Athletic Club3-1
15 Aug 2026H Rayo Vallecano2-1

Valencia

LLLD
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
06 Sep 2026H Barcelona0-5
30 Aug 2026A Deportivo La Coruna1-3
25 Aug 2026H Real Betis0-1
22 Aug 2026H Celta Vigo0-0
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 18% vs implied 30% · edge -12.3 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Sevilla Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Sevilla to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Valencia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Valencia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form data shows Sevilla earning 7 points with 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, indicating moderate offensive output but defensive vulnerability. Valencia has struggled with just 1 point, scoring 0.25 and conceding 2.25 per game, reflecting their recent difficulties. This form suggests a cautious approach from both sides, increasing the likelihood of a draw.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Sevilla wins
5Draws
3Valencia wins
21 Mar 2026Sevilla v Valencia0-2
07 Dec 2025Valencia v Sevilla1-1
11 Apr 2025Valencia v Sevilla1-0
11 Jan 2025Sevilla v Valencia1-1
17 Feb 2024Valencia v Sevilla0-0
11 Aug 2023Sevilla v Valencia1-2
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 18% vs implied 30% · edge -12.3 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Sevilla to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Valencia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The head-to-head record shows three draws in the last four league matches, including a 1-1 result in the reverse fixture. This consistent pattern of stalemates underlines the tactical parity and defensive caution between the teams, providing strong historical support for the draw selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

La Liga

Sevilla4
Played
Valencia4
Sevilla1.8
Avg goals for
Valencia0.3
Sevilla1.5
Avg goals against
Valencia2.3
Sevilla0
Clean sheets
Valencia1
Best odds for this sectionSevilla Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +13.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Load more odds for this section
Sevilla to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Valencia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Valencia to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over the season, Sevilla and Valencia have shown balanced attacking volumes but contrasting defensive records, with Valencia's 10 clean sheets doubling Sevilla's 5. This defensive edge for Valencia supports a low-scoring, tight match scenario, reinforcing the draw prediction and under 3.5 goals expectation.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Sevilla742111
20Valencia14013-8
Sevilla sits 6th with 7 points and Valencia 20th with 1 point, highlighting a significant gap in league position despite the close recent form. This disparity may influence Valencia to adopt a defensive posture to secure points, while Sevilla faces pressure to break down a compact defense, contributing to the anticipated stalemate.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Sevilla Over 2.5
50%Valencia Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between Sevilla and Valencia have averaged 2 goals per game, with a strong trend towards under 2.5 goals. This sample indicates a low-tempo, defensively cautious fixture pattern, suggesting that Over 2.5 Goals is unlikely and supporting the low-scoring draw scenario.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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