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Seattle Sounders crestSeattle Sounders
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Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City

Major League Soccer | Fri 02 Oct, 02:30

Seattle Sounders v Sporting Kansas City Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Seattle Sounders host Sporting Kansas City in a Major League Soccer clash where both teams have shown aggressive defensive tendencies this season. Seattle ranks mid-table with a solid defensive record but a midfield prone to fouls, while Sporting Kansas City struggles defensively and ranks lower, often engaging in physical battles. Recent matches suggest a high-intensity encounter with potential disciplinary challenges, as both sides seek crucial points in the closing stages of the season. Tactical setups hint at pressing and physical duels, increasing the likelihood of multiple cards in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Seattle averages 1.8 yellow cards per game, Sporting Kansas City 2.6, indicating frequent fouling.
  • Both teams have aggressive midfielders and defenders with high foul and card counts.
  • Recent form shows both sides involved in physical matches with disciplinary issues.
  • Player data highlights several individuals with significant card risk, supporting a high-card count.
  • The model estimates a 66.6% chance for over 3.5 cards, above the market implied probability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies strong value in Over 3.5 Cards based on both teams' disciplinary profiles and recent match intensity. Seattle's midfielders and defenders, notably P. Petković, have high foul and yellow card rates, while Sporting Kansas City's defenders like Z. Mosquera also carry card risk. The match context of a physical MLS encounter with tactical pressing and defensive duels supports a higher card count. The 66.6% exceeds the market's implied 54.6%, indicating positive value without price warnings.

Seattle Sounders average yellows1.8 per game
Positive
Sporting Kansas City average yellows2.6 per game
Strong positive
Key players with card riskP. Kingston (Seattle), Z. Bassong (Sporting KC)
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance66.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+12 pts)
Strong positive
Recent match intensityHigh fouling and physical duels
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically contested match with both Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City engaging in aggressive defensive play. Tactical pressing and midfield battles increase fouling risks, making Over 3.5 Cards a sensible pick. The data supports this with both teams showing elevated yellow card averages and key players prone to bookings, suggesting a high likelihood of multiple cautions.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture features two teams with aggressive defensive styles and several players carrying significant card risk, making Over 3.5 Cards a compelling market to consider given the match tempo and tactical intensity.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Seattle averages 1.8 yellow cards per game, Sporting Kansas City 2.6, indicating frequent fouling.

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and defenders with high foul and card counts.

Recent form shows both sides involved in physical matches with disciplinary issues.

Player data highlights several individuals with significant card risk, supporting a high-card count.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating open and competitive games.
  • While this trend focuses on goals, it also reflects a tempo that often leads to physical duels and fouls.
  • The sustained pace and intensity in these encounters suggest a match environment conducive to multiple cards, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Cards expectation.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Seattle Sounders1.8
Avg goals scored
Sporting Kansas City2.2
Seattle Sounders1
Avg goals conceded
Sporting Kansas City2.4
Seattle Sounders60%
BTTS rate
Sporting Kansas City60%
Seattle Sounders40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sporting Kansas City80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 67% · edge +3.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates but share a 60% BTTS rate, indicating open play. However, the focus here is on physicality rather than goals, as the match's intensity and defensive pressure are more likely to generate fouls and cards than high scoring. The average goals in their recent meetings (3.4) suggest a balanced game but do not detract from the card market focus.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Major League Soccer analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sporting Kansas City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Seattle Sounders Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sporting Kansas City to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Seattle Sounders to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 66.6% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+12 pts). Sporting Kansas City have the higher yellow-card average at 2.6, while Seattle Sounders sit at 1.8.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Seattle Sounders

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
27 Sep 2026H Minnesota United FC3-1
24 Sep 2026H Real Salt Lake2-0
20 Sep 2026A Colorado Rapids3-3
13 Sep 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy1-1
06 Sep 2026H New York Red Bulls0-0

Sporting Kansas City

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
27 Sep 2026A Houston Dynamo2-0
20 Sep 2026H Philadelphia Union3-4
13 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC3-1
06 Sep 2026A FC Dallas3-4
30 Aug 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps0-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 85% vs implied 88% · edge -3.2 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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Sporting Kansas City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Seattle Sounders Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Sporting Kansas City to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Seattle Sounders to WinBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form data shows Seattle Sounders have accumulated 9 points with a moderate goals-against record, while Sporting Kansas City has 6 points but concedes more goals. Both teams have been involved in matches with significant fouling and disciplinary actions, reinforcing the expectation of a high card count. This recent trend supports the Over 3.5 Cards pick as both sides maintain aggressive defensive approaches.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Seattle Sounders Over 2.5
80%Sporting Kansas City Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.4, indicating open and competitive games. While this trend focuses on goals, it also reflects a tempo that often leads to physical duels and fouls. The sustained pace and intensity in these encounters suggest a match environment conducive to multiple cards, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Cards expectation.

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