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Scotland crestScotland
v
Slovenia crestSlovenia

UEFA Nations League | Tue 06 Oct, 19:45

Scotland v Slovenia Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 02:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Scotland face Slovenia in UEFA Nations League on Tue 06 Oct, 19:45. Scotland and Slovenia meet at Hampden Park on Tuesday with little separating them in UEFA Nations League Group B1 and significant pressure attached to the result.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Scotland to win

  • At 3/4, Scotland to win implies roughly 57%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 39%.
  • Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.
  • Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Scotland to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Scotland sit 3 in the table, while Slovenia sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Scotland to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 57% while the model sits nearer 39% (-18.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Slovenia Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 39% for Scotland to win sits against roughly 57% implied by the current price. Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Scotland to win angle more than a raw possession edge. Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.

Model chance vs price39% model chance against roughly 57% implied
Negative
Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Scotland sit 3 in the table, while Slovenia sit 2.Visible data support
Positive
Slovenia have won only one of their last seven.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Scotland Win is the preferred angle because slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches. Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Scotland Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Slovenia carry the stronger scoring threat, but Scotland must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Slovenia carry the stronger scoring threat, but Scotland must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Scotland to win evidence

Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away matches.

Slovenia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Scotland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Scotland sit 3 in the table, while Slovenia sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Scotland to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Scotland0.67
    Avg goals scored
    Slovenia1
    Scotland1
    Avg goals conceded
    Slovenia0.67
    Scotland0%
    BTTS rate
    Slovenia33%
    Scotland33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Slovenia33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.3 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Scotland concede 1 on average and Slovenia score 1, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more UEFA Nations League analysisScotland v Slovenia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 59% · edge -20 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Scotland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Scotland to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Scotland

    WLD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    03 Oct 2026A FYR Macedonia2-0
    29 Sep 2026H Switzerland0-3
    26 Sep 2026A Slovenia0-0

    Slovenia

    LWD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    03 Oct 2026A Switzerland1-2
    29 Sep 2026H FYR Macedonia2-0
    26 Sep 2026H Scotland0-0
    Market aligned with main pickScotland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 59% · edge -20 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Scotland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Scotland Over 2.5
    33%Slovenia Over 2.5
    1.67H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Scotland sit at 33% and Slovenia sit at 33% with the H2H average at 1.67 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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