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UEFA Nations League | Tue 06 Oct, 19:45

Scotland v Slovenia Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Scotland and Slovenia meet in the UEFA Nations League opener with both sides grappling with attacking absences and recent low scoring. Slovenia are without key forward Benjamin Sesko, having scored just six goals in their last six matches, while Scotland miss Scott McTominay, Lawrence Shankland, and Che Adams. Scotland's defensive resilience is notable, with five clean sheets in six away games, contrasting with Slovenia's struggles to find the net at home. The fixture sets up as a tactical battle where defensive solidity and limited attacking firepower suggest a cautious, low-scoring encounter under new Scotland manager Sébastien Pocognoli.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Slovenia have scored only six goals in their last six matches, missing key striker Benjamin Sesko.
  • Scotland have kept five clean sheets in their last six away fixtures, showing strong defensive shape.
  • Each of Slovenia's last four competitive matches finished with fewer than three goals.
  • Scotland have failed to score in four of their last seven matches, indicating limited attacking threat away from home.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting the clear defensive strengths and attacking limitations on both sides. Slovenia's low scoring rate combined with Scotland's solid away defensive record underpins the expectation of a low-scoring match. The absence of key forwards on both teams further reduces goal-scoring opportunities. This pick aligns well with recent match outcomes and tactical setups, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this Nations League fixture.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+4.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormScotland kept 5 clean sheets in last 6 away games
Strong positive
Attacking LimitationsBoth teams missing key forwards and low recent goals
Positive
Implied Odds66% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+4.3 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a fitting choice given Scotland's defensive discipline away from home and Slovenia's ongoing scoring difficulties, especially without their main striker. The tactical setup and recent form data both point to a tight, low-scoring game where defensive solidity will dominate over attacking flair.

Main risk

It eliminates the loss risk on a draw, albeit at a reduced return.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and attacking limitations

“Scotland’s strong away defensive record combined with Slovenia’s attacking struggles creates a clear tactical scenario favoring a low-scoring match. The absence of key forwards on both sides further limits goal-scoring chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Slovenia have scored only six goals in their last six matches, missing key striker Benjamin Sesko.

Scotland have kept five clean sheets in their last six away fixtures, showing strong defensive shape.

Each of Slovenia's last four competitive matches finished with fewer than three goals.

Scotland have failed to score in four of their last seven matches, indicating limited attacking threat away from home.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.67, indicating a pattern of low-scoring games between these teams.
  • Recent competitive matches for Slovenia have consistently finished under 2.5 goals, and Scotland's defensive away form supports a continuation of this trend.
  • The tempo and tactical caution evident in these encounters suggest a subdued goal output in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Scotland0.67
Avg goals scored
Slovenia1
Scotland1
Avg goals conceded
Slovenia0.67
Scotland0%
BTTS rate
Slovenia33%
Scotland33%
Over 2.5 goals
Slovenia33%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 62% · edge +4.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown limited attacking output recently, with Slovenia scoring just six goals in six matches and Scotland failing to score in four of their last seven games. Scotland's zero BTTS rate contrasts with Slovenia's 33%, but overall the data supports a low-scoring game with a strong chance of at least one clean sheet, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals pick.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisScotland v Slovenia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSlovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Scotland to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+4.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Scotland and 33% for Slovenia, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Slovenia’s 3-2 friendly victory over Montenegro demonstrates that high-scoring anomalies can occur, but that remains their sole win in ten matches.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Scotland

WLD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
03 Oct 2026A FYR Macedonia2-0
29 Sep 2026H Switzerland0-3
26 Sep 2026A Slovenia0-0

Slovenia

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
03 Oct 2026A Switzerland1-2
29 Sep 2026H FYR Macedonia2-0
26 Sep 2026H Scotland0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Slovenia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Slovenia to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Scotland to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Scotland Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Recent form data shows Scotland scoring 0.67 goals per game and Slovenia 1 goal per game, both low figures reflecting attacking struggles. Scotland's defensive solidity is evident with only 1 goal conceded per game, while Slovenia concedes 0.67. Both teams have a 33% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, supporting the expectation of a low-scoring encounter consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Scotland Over 2.5
33%Slovenia Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.67, indicating a pattern of low-scoring games between these teams. Recent competitive matches for Slovenia have consistently finished under 2.5 goals, and Scotland's defensive away form supports a continuation of this trend. The tempo and tactical caution evident in these encounters suggest a subdued goal output in this fixture.

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