Football Stats Hub

Scafatese crestScafatese
v
Sorrento crestSorrento

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 11 Oct, 13:30

Scafatese v Sorrento Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 09:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone C clash features Scafatese hosting Sorrento, with both sides showing cautious attacking intent early in the season. Scafatese sits mid-table with 10 points, while Sorrento is pushing near the top with 18 points. Both teams have averaged just 1.4 goals scored per game and maintain relatively tight defenses, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. The match is poised for a measured tempo, where defensive solidity and risk management will likely dominate, increasing the probability of a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 1.4 goals scored per game this season, indicating limited attacking output.
  • Scafatese concedes 0.8 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Sorrento allows 1.2 goals per game, suggesting moderate defensive stability.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting a tendency towards lower-scoring games.
  • Recent form data shows both teams earning 9 points in their last matches, emphasizing balanced competitiveness.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 63.8% chance to Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' modest scoring rates and solid defensive records. With Scafatese conceding fewer than one goal per game and Sorrento maintaining a disciplined backline, the tactical setup favors a cautious approach. The 40% over 2.5 goals rate for both sides supports a trend towards tighter scorelines. This combination of data and football context underpins in a low-scoring match outcome.

Model Probability63.8% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+3.9 pts)
Strong positive
Scoring RatesBoth teams average 1.4 goals per game
Positive
Defensive RecordsScafatese concedes 0.8, Sorrento concedes 1.2 goals per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate40% for both teams, indicating lower scoring tendency
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given the balanced defensive strengths and modest attacking output from both sides. Scafatese's tighter defense and Sorrento's controlled offense suggest the match will be tactically cautious, limiting goal-scoring opportunities and favoring a low total goals outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“This fixture's statistical profile and tactical balance point towards a tight, low-scoring game where defensive discipline will be key. Both teams have shown restraint in attack, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 1.4 goals scored per game this season, indicating limited attacking output.

Scafatese concedes 0.8 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.

Sorrento allows 1.2 goals per game, suggesting moderate defensive stability.

Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting a tendency towards lower-scoring games.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring affairs.
  • This trend, combined with the average goals per game and defensive solidity, suggests a measured tempo and limited goal opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Scafatese1.4
Avg goals scored
Sorrento1.4
Scafatese0.8
Avg goals conceded
Sorrento1.2
Scafatese60%
BTTS rate
Sorrento40%
Scafatese40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sorrento40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.9 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goal and BTTS trends show both teams average 1.4 goals scored per game, with Scafatese conceding fewer goals than Sorrento. The BTTS rates differ slightly, with Scafatese at 60% and Sorrento at 40%, suggesting Scafatese's matches are more likely to see both teams scoring, but overall goal totals remain low, supporting Under 2.5 Goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Scafatese

WDDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
27 Sep 2026H Team Altamura2-0
19 Sep 2026A Cosenza1-1
15 Sep 2026H SS Monopoli0-0
12 Sep 2026A Catania2-1
06 Sep 2026A Casertana2-2

Sorrento

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Casarano2-0
27 Sep 2026A Foggia0-2
19 Sep 2026H Bari1-2
15 Sep 2026A Cavese3-2
12 Sep 2026H AZ Picerno1-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Scafatese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sorrento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Scafatese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sorrento to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form shows both teams earning 9 points in their last matches, with similar goals-for averages of 1.4 and goals-against of 0.8 and 1.2 respectively. This balanced recent output supports a continuation of cautious play and limited goal-scoring, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 52% · edge +10.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Scafatese to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Sorrento Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Scafatese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Sorrento to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 63.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+3.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Scafatese and 40% for Sorrento, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Scafatese Over 2.5
40%Sorrento Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring affairs. This trend, combined with the average goals per game and defensive solidity, suggests a measured tempo and limited goal opportunities in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…