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Sarmiento Junin crestSarmiento Junin
v
Huracan crestHuracan

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sun 16 Aug, 19:00

Sarmiento Junin v Huracan Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sarmiento Junin and Huracan meet in a Liga Profesional Argentina clash where both teams have shown contrasting defensive styles and disciplinary records. Sarmiento Junin concedes frequently and plays aggressively, while Huracan maintains a tighter defense but accumulates more fouls and cards. Recent matches indicate a physical contest with high card counts likely as both sides seek to assert control. The fixture's competitive nature and tactical intensity set the stage for a game with multiple cautions, reflecting the teams' current form and playing approach.

BT4Y match pick

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Sarmiento Junin averages 1.6 yellow cards per game, Huracan 2.4, indicating frequent fouling.
  • Both teams have aggressive defensive styles leading to sustained pressure and fouls.
  • Recent form shows Sarmiento Junin concedes 2.4 goals per game, suggesting defensive struggles and possible frustration.
  • Huracan's key defender C. Ibáñez has a high card risk with 9 yellows this season, increasing card likelihood.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 57% chance for over 4.5 cards, slightly above the market's implied 54.6%, indicating a small positive value. Both teams exhibit aggressive defensive tendencies and high foul counts, with Huracan's defenders particularly prone to bookings. The recent form data supports a physical match with multiple cautions expected. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake opportunity. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting the analysis.

Model Chance57%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance54.6%
Positive
Sarmiento Junin Yellow Cards Avg1.6 per game
Positive
Huracan Yellow Cards Avg2.4 per game
Strong positive
Key Player Card RiskC. Ibáñez with 9 yellows
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match as Sarmiento Junin's defensive vulnerabilities and Huracan's aggressive fouling style combine to produce multiple cautions. The data shows both sides frequently receive cards, supporting the over 4.5 cards pick as a logical outcome given their current form and tactical approach.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Card market analysis

“This fixture features two teams whose defensive and tactical styles naturally lead to frequent fouls and bookings, making over 4.5 cards a well-supported selection based on both statistical trends and player discipline profiles.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Sarmiento Junin averages 1.6 yellow cards per game, Huracan 2.4, indicating frequent fouling.

Both teams have aggressive defensive styles leading to sustained pressure and fouls.

Recent form shows Sarmiento Junin concedes 2.4 goals per game, suggesting defensive struggles and possible frustration.

Huracan's key defender C. Ibáñez has a high card risk with 9 yellows this season, increasing card likelihood.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • However, the trend for over 2.5 goals is low, suggesting defensive solidity but also potential for tactical fouling and card accumulation as teams seek to disrupt rhythm and control the match tempo.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sarmiento Junin4
Avg corners for
Huracan4.5
Sarmiento Junin9.8
Avg total corners
Huracan7.75
Sarmiento Junin1.6
Avg yellow cards
Huracan1.5
Sarmiento Junin10.2
Avg shots
Huracan16.25
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 55% · edge -3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams average 4 corners per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure. Huracan averages 15.2 shots with 5.4 on target, showing offensive intent. The card averages of 1.6 for Sarmiento and 2.4 for Huracan reflect a physical match with frequent fouls and disciplinary actions, supported by aggressive tackling and defensive pressure.

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corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarmiento Junin1.6
Avg goals scored
Huracan0.8
Sarmiento Junin2.4
Avg goals conceded
Huracan0.6
Sarmiento Junin80%
BTTS rate
Huracan20%
Sarmiento Junin100%
Over 2.5 goals
Huracan20%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 60% · edge +13.3 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Goal scoring trends show Sarmiento Junin concedes heavily with 2.4 goals against per game, while Huracan concedes only 0.6. BTTS rates are skewed by Sarmiento's openness, but the low scoring from Huracan suggests fewer goals overall. This defensive imbalance may increase fouling and card accumulation as Sarmiento pushes forward and Huracan defends tightly.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Huracan to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Huracan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Sarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Sarmiento Junin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The over 4.5 cards market is priced at 1.83 with a of 57%, slightly higher than the implied 54.6%. This small positive value reflects the teams' aggressive defensive play and high foul rates, suggesting the price fairly rewards the risk with room for a modest edge.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarmiento Junin

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
08 Aug 2026A Atletico Tucuman2-1
03 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia2-1
28 Jul 2026A Banfield2-3
23 Jul 2026H Argentinos JRS2-3
03 May 2026A Belgrano Cordoba0-4

Huracan

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
09 Aug 2026A San Lorenzo2-0
04 Aug 2026H Atletico Tucuman0-0
30 Jul 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-2
25 Jul 2026H Banfield1-0
13 May 2026A Argentinos JRS0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Huracan to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Huracan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Sarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Sarmiento Junin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Recent form data shows Sarmiento Junin averaging 1.6 yellow cards and conceding 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive struggles and aggressive play. Huracan averages 2.4 yellows and concedes only 0.6 goals, reflecting a disciplined but physical style. These trends support a match with multiple cautions and a high likelihood of exceeding 4.5 cards.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Sarmiento Junin wins
5Draws
5Huracan wins
14 Feb 2026Huracan v Sarmiento Junin1-0
05 Oct 2024Huracan v Sarmiento Junin3-1
21 May 2023Sarmiento Junin v Huracan0-0
12 Aug 2022Huracan v Sarmiento Junin4-1
13 Sep 2021Sarmiento Junin v Huracan0-0
13 Apr 2021Huracan v Sarmiento Junin3-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Huracan to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Sarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2 goals per game, indicating balanced encounters. While goal scoring is moderate, the physical nature of past meetings suggests a propensity for fouls and cards, lending indirect support to the over 4.5 cards pick.
Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Sarmiento Junin20
Played
Huracan22
Sarmiento Junin1.1
Avg goals for
Huracan1.1
Sarmiento Junin1.4
Avg goals against
Huracan0.8
Sarmiento Junin5
Clean sheets
Huracan10
Best odds for this sectionHuracan to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 39% · edge +9 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Huracan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Sarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Sarmiento Junin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Season-long stats reveal Huracan's defensive discipline is offset by a high foul and card count, while Sarmiento Junin's defensive frailty leads to frustration and fouling. Both teams' card averages are above typical league levels, reinforcing the expectation of a card-heavy encounter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Huracan22165744
11Sarmiento Junin1916619-7
6Huracan742112
10Sarmiento Junin642020
The standings show Huracan in 6th and Sarmiento Junin in 10th place, both mid-table with similar points. This positioning suggests a competitive match where neither side can afford to concede easy ground, likely intensifying physicality and tactical fouling to gain advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Sarmiento Junin Over 2.5
20%Huracan Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderate scoring. However, the trend for over 2.5 goals is low, suggesting defensive solidity but also potential for tactical fouling and card accumulation as teams seek to disrupt rhythm and control the match tempo.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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