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Sarmiento Junin crestSarmiento Junin
v
Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sun 23 Aug, 18:45

Sarmiento Junin v Estudiantes L.P. Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sarmiento Junin hosts Estudiantes L.P. in a Liga Profesional Argentina clash where both teams seek to consolidate their early season form. Sarmiento Junin currently ranks 4th with 9 points, showing strong attacking intent and resilience at home. Estudiantes L.P., positioned 9th with 6 points, have struggled to convert chances consistently and face a tough test against a side with a potent offense. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key in this encounter, with Sarmiento Junin aiming to leverage their home momentum and goal threat to secure all three points.

BT4Y best bet

Sarmiento Junin to Win

  • Sarmiento Junin leads the standings with 9 points, Estudiantes L.P.
  • Sarmiento Junin scores 2 goals per game on average, Estudiantes L.P.
  • Sarmiento Junin has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Estudiantes L.P.
  • Sarmiento Junin averages 5.4 corners per match versus Estudiantes L.P.'s 3.2.
  • Marabel (Sarmiento Junin) has 10 goals and 1.07 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sarmiento Junin to win with a 57.1% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Their high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) and strong home ranking support this view. The price at 3.5 offers significant value given the implied chance of 28.6%, indicating a favorable risk-reward balance. Player-level data, including J. Marabel's goal threat and G. González's shot volume, further bolster in Sarmiento Junin's offensive capabilities. No data limitations reduce in this selection.

Model Chance57.1%
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model28.6% vs 57.1%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsSarmiento Junin 9, Estudiantes L.P. 6
Positive
Goal Scoring RateSarmiento Junin 2.0, Estudiantes L.P. 1.4
Positive
Top Player ImpactJ. Marabel 10 goals, 1.07 SOT/90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sarmiento Junin's strong home form and attacking efficiency make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and convert chances, supported by key players like J. Marabel, gives them a tactical and statistical edge over Estudiantes L.P., who have struggled to maintain consistent offensive pressure.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sarmiento Junin's offensive dynamism and home advantage create a compelling case for victory, especially given Estudiantes L.P.'s lower goal output and defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Sarmiento Junin to Win evidence

Sarmiento Junin leads the standings with 9 points, Estudiantes L.P.

Sarmiento Junin scores 2 goals per game on average, Estudiantes L.P.

Sarmiento Junin has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Estudiantes L.P.

Sarmiento Junin averages 5.4 corners per match versus Estudiantes L.P.'s 3.2.

What To Watch In The Data

Sarmiento Junin to Win notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.22, indicating moderately open games.
  • Sarmiento Junin's high Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests an attacking tempo that could push this fixture towards a higher goal count, aligning with their offensive style and home advantage.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarmiento Junin2
Avg goals scored
Estudiantes L.P.1.4
Sarmiento Junin1.6
Avg goals conceded
Estudiantes L.P.1
Sarmiento Junin80%
BTTS rate
Estudiantes L.P.0%
Sarmiento Junin80%
Over 2.5 goals
Estudiantes L.P.40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Sarmiento Junin's matches have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals and 80% BTTS, indicating open, attacking games. In contrast, Estudiantes L.P. has a 40% Over 2.5 rate and 0% BTTS, reflecting a more conservative approach. This disparity suggests a likely high-scoring game with both teams contributing, favoring an attacking contest.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Sarmiento Junin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The current of 3.5 for a Sarmiento Junin win represent strong value compared to the model's 57.1% win probability. This significant suggests the market underestimates Sarmiento Junin's chances, making the bet an attractive proposition without price sensitivity concerns.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sarmiento Junin5.5
Avg corners for
Estudiantes L.P.2
Sarmiento Junin13
Avg total corners
Estudiantes L.P.7
Sarmiento Junin2.5
Avg yellow cards
Estudiantes L.P.3
Sarmiento Junin11.5
Avg shots
Estudiantes L.P.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Sarmiento Junin averages 5.4 corners per match, indicating sustained pressure and attacking territory, while Estudiantes L.P. Both teams have moderate card averages, with Estudiantes L.P. slightly higher at 2.2 yellows per game, suggesting a competitive but disciplined encounter. Shot volumes are balanced, but Sarmiento Junin's higher corner count signals more offensive initiative.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarmiento Junin

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
16 Aug 2026H Huracan2-0
08 Aug 2026A Atletico Tucuman2-1
03 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia2-1
28 Jul 2026A Banfield2-3
23 Jul 2026H Argentinos JRS2-3

Estudiantes L.P.

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
15 Aug 2026H Gimnasia L.P.4-0
08 Aug 2026A Deportivo Riestra0-2
05 Aug 2026A Boca Juniors0-1
01 Aug 2026H Defensa Y Justicia3-0
26 Jul 2026H Independiente0-2
Market aligned with main pickSarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Sarmiento Junin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Sarmiento Junin's recent form shows 9 points with 2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, reflecting a potent but occasionally vulnerable side. has 6 points, scoring fewer goals and conceding less, indicating a more cautious approach. This form suggests Sarmiento Junin's attacking edge could be decisive in securing victory at home.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Sarmiento Junin wins
1Draws
6Estudiantes L.P. wins
20 Feb 2026Estudiantes L.P. v Sarmiento Junin1-0
13 Jun 2024Sarmiento Junin v Estudiantes L.P.2-0
09 Mar 2024Sarmiento Junin v Estudiantes L.P.3-1
23 Oct 2023Estudiantes L.P. v Sarmiento Junin2-1
25 Feb 2023Estudiantes L.P. v Sarmiento Junin1-1
15 Jun 2022Estudiantes L.P. v Sarmiento Junin2-1
Market aligned with main pickSarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The nine previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.22 goals per game, showing a moderate scoring trend. While this provides some background, the current form and attacking profiles of Sarmiento Junin and Estudiantes L.P. offer stronger signals for the expected outcome than historical results alone.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Sarmiento Junin21
Played
Estudiantes L.P.22
Sarmiento Junin1.1
Avg goals for
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Sarmiento Junin1.3
Avg goals against
Estudiantes L.P.0.6
Sarmiento Junin6
Clean sheets
Estudiantes L.P.11
Market aligned with main pickSarmiento Junin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Sarmiento Junin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Sarmiento Junin ranks 4th with a strong offensive record, averaging 2 goals per game and maintaining an aggressive corner count. sits 9th with lower scoring and fewer attacking set pieces. These season-long stats underline Sarmiento Junin's superior attacking output and home advantage as key factors for the win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Estudiantes L.P.311694312
11Sarmiento Junin1916619-7
9Estudiantes L.P.652032
4Sarmiento Junin953022
The standings show Sarmiento Junin in a higher position with more points early in the season, reflecting better consistency and momentum. Estudiantes L.P.'s mid-table position suggests a need for improvement to challenge top teams. This context supports Sarmiento Junin's and tactical control in the upcoming match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Sarmiento Junin Over 2.5
40%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5
2.22H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.22, indicating moderately open games. Sarmiento Junin's high Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests an attacking tempo that could push this fixture towards a higher goal count, aligning with their offensive style and home advantage.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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Gimnasia L.P. v Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional Argentina · Sat 22 Aug 20:00Atletico Tucuman v Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina · Sat 22 Aug 20:00Independiente v Independ. RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina · Sat 22 Aug 22:30Huracan v Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina · Sun 23 Aug 01:00

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