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Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo
v
Bolívar crestBolívar

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 19 Aug, 01:30

Sao Paulo v Bolívar Stats

Data last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026, 07:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolívar host São Paulo in the Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 first leg with contrasting momentum and styles shaping the contest. Bolívar arrive on a strong run, winning four of their last five matches and scoring nine goals, showcasing an aggressive attacking rhythm led by Martín Cauteruccio Rodríguez. São Paulo bring a disciplined defensive record from the group stage, conceding just once in six matches, but recent domestic form shows vulnerabilities. This clash pits Bolívar's home attacking firepower against São Paulo's continental defensive solidity, setting up a tactical battle where Bolívar's tempo and goal threat meet São Paulo's structured containment and counter-attacking potential.

BT4Y best bet

Bolívar to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Bolívar have won four of their last five matches, scoring nine goals in that span.
  • São Paulo conceded only one goal in six Copa Sudamericana group matches but have recent domestic defensive lapses.
  • Bolívar average two goals scored and one conceded per game in this competition, indicating open play.
  • São Paulo's Jonathan Calleri and Bolívar's Martín Cauteruccio Rodríguez lead their teams' scoring charts.
  • No recent head-to-head history adds unpredictability to this first-leg encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees Bolívar's strong recent scoring form and home momentum as key factors supporting a home win with both teams scoring. São Paulo's exceptional defensive record in the continental group contrasts with their domestic inconsistencies, suggesting they will concede but still pose a scoring threat. The at 3.75 imply a 26.7% chance, closely aligned with the model's 26.4% probability, indicating a fair but slightly price-sensitive opportunity. Reduced staking is advised due to the narrow and the tactical tension between Bolívar's attacking rhythm and São Paulo's defensive discipline.

Bolívar recent form4 wins in last 5, 9 goals scored
Strong positive
São Paulo defensive record1 goal conceded in 6 group matches
Positive
São Paulo recent domestic form1 win in last 5 matches, defensive lapses
Neutral
Market price vs model chance3.75 odds vs 26.4% model chance
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bolívar's attacking momentum and home advantage give them a tactical edge to secure a win while both teams find the net. São Paulo's strong continental defensive record suggests they will score but also concede, making the combined outcome plausible. This bet balances Bolívar's offensive firepower against São Paulo's disciplined defense, reflecting the match's strategic dynamics and recent form data.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form balance supporting BTTS & home win

“Bolívar's aggressive home style challenges São Paulo's continental defensive discipline, creating a fixture where both sides are likely to score but the hosts hold the winning edge.”

Key Data Signals

Bolívar to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Bolívar have won four of their last five matches, scoring nine goals in that span.

São Paulo conceded only one goal in six Copa Sudamericana group matches but have recent domestic defensive lapses.

Bolívar average two goals scored and one conceded per game in this competition, indicating open play.

São Paulo's Jonathan Calleri and Bolívar's Martín Cauteruccio Rodríguez lead their teams' scoring charts.

What To Watch In The Data

Bolívar to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, Bolívar have a 33% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting their attacking style and goal involvement.
  • The single head-to-head match between these teams averaged two goals, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.
  • The trend indicates a reasonable chance for multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring and a competitive scoreline.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sao Paulo5
Avg corners for
Bolívar5
Sao Paulo11
Avg total corners
Bolívar12
Sao Paulo2.4
Avg yellow cards
Bolívar0.33
Sao Paulo11.6
Avg shots
Bolívar23.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams average around five corners per match, reflecting balanced territorial exchanges. São Paulo's higher average of 11.6 shots with 2.6 on target contrasts with Bolívar's more aggressive 23.3 shots and 6 on target, indicating Bolívar's offensive pressure. Low card averages, especially Bolívar's 0.33 yellows, suggest disciplined play with focus on attacking transitions and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sao Paulo0.8
Avg goals scored
Bolívar1.67
Sao Paulo0.4
Avg goals conceded
Bolívar1
Sao Paulo40%
BTTS rate
Bolívar67%
Sao Paulo0%
Over 2.5 goals
Bolívar33%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams have shown scoring ability recently: Bolívar average two goals per game in the competition, while São Paulo have scored in three of their last five matches despite defensive discipline. Bolívar's open style and São Paulo's occasional domestic defensive lapses support a scenario where both sides find the net in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBolívar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Bolívar to WinBetUK guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The market price of 3.75 for Bolívar to Win & Both Teams to Score closely matches the model's 26.4% probability, indicating a fair valuation with slight price sensitivity. While the do not present strong value, the tactical context of Bolívar's attacking momentum against São Paulo's defensive vulnerabilities justifies cautious interest with reduced stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sao Paulo

DWDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 0L
12 Aug 2026A Bolívar1-1
26 May 2026H Boston River2-0
20 May 2026H Millonarios1-1
07 May 2026A O'Higgins0-0
29 Apr 2026A Millonarios0-0

Bolívar

DWW
Last 52W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 0L
12 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo1-1
30 Jul 2026A Gremio1-0
23 Jul 2026H Gremio3-2
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Bolívar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Bolívar to WinBetUK guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Bolívar's recent form is strong, with four wins in five matches and nine goals scored, demonstrating attacking and momentum. São Paulo's form is mixed, with only one win in five matches and defensive lapses despite possession control, indicating potential vulnerabilities. This contrast in form underpins the expectation of a Bolívar win with goals from both sides.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Sao Paulo wins
1Draws
0Bolívar wins
12 Aug 2026Bolívar v Sao Paulo1-1
Market aligned with main pickBolívar to WinBetUK guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
There is only one recent head-to-head meeting between Bolívar and São Paulo, limiting historical insight. That match featured an average of two goals, indicating a balanced contest. Without extensive direct history, current form and tactical context carry greater weight in assessing this fixture's likely outcome.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Sao Paulo7
Played
Bolívar3
Sao Paulo1
Avg goals for
Bolívar1.7
Sao Paulo0.3
Avg goals against
Bolívar1
Sao Paulo5
Clean sheets
Bolívar1
Market aligned with main pickBolívar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Bolívar to WinBetUK guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
Bolívar's season shows an attacking profile with 1.67 goals per game and a tendency to concede, aligning with their open play style. São Paulo's season features a tighter defense with only 0.4 goals conceded per game in recent form, but limited scoring output at 0.8 goals per game. These season stats support a match where Bolívar's attack can breach São Paulo's defense while conceding themselves.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Sao Paulo1263305
São Paulo lead their group with 12 points, reflecting continental strength and defensive discipline. Bolívar's position is less defined but their recent form and progression through the knockout stages indicate rising . The standings highlight São Paulo's defensive foundation but do not fully capture Bolívar's attacking momentum, emphasizing the tactical stakes over table pressure.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
33%Bolívar Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Bolívar have a 33% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting their attacking style and goal involvement. The single head-to-head match between these teams averaged two goals, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. The trend indicates a reasonable chance for multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring and a competitive scoreline.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Sao Paulo v Bolívar prediction

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