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São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo
v
CRB crestCRB

Serie B | Fri 02 Oct, 23:30

São Bernardo v CRB Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

São Bernardo hosts CRB in a Serie B clash where both teams show contrasting recent form and tactical approaches. São Bernardo has been defensively solid, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while CRB boasts a more aggressive attack but a leaky defense. São Bernardo’s home advantage and disciplined structure contrast with CRB’s higher scoring but less consistent form. The match promises tactical discipline from São Bernardo aiming to capitalize on CRB’s defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a competitive encounter with São Bernardo favored to edge the win.

BT4Y best bet

São Bernardo to Win

  • São Bernardo concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showing strong defensive resilience.
  • CRB averages 1.6 goals scored but concedes 1.2, indicating defensive frailty.
  • São Bernardo’s recent form yields 10 points, slightly ahead of CRB’s 9 points.
  • CRB’s high shot volume (23.8 per game) contrasts with São Bernardo’s more measured 11 shots.
  • São Bernardo’s home rank (12th) versus CRB’s 7th suggests a motivated home side seeking to close the gap.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors São Bernardo to win with a 48.2% chance, reflecting their strong defensive record and home advantage. Despite CRB’s higher attacking output, São Bernardo’s ability to limit goals against and steady recent form underpin the pick. The at 2.5 offer positive value given the implied 40% chance, supported by São Bernardo’s tactical discipline and CRB’s defensive inconsistencies. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection with standard stake guidance.

Defensive StrengthSão Bernardo concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive
Home AdvantageSão Bernardo’s home form and rank
Positive
Attacking OutputCRB scores 1.6 goals per game but concedes 1.2
Neutral
Price Value48.2% model chance vs 40% implied (+8.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

São Bernardo’s disciplined defensive approach and home advantage provide a tactical edge over CRB, whose attacking threat is offset by defensive vulnerabilities. The data supports a narrow home win as São Bernardo’s form and defensive record align well against CRB’s inconsistent defense and higher concession rate.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“São Bernardo’s compact defense and home motivation create a strong foundation for a win against a CRB side that scores freely but struggles defensively, making the home win a compelling tactical and statistical choice.”

Key Data Signals

São Bernardo to Win evidence

São Bernardo concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showing strong defensive resilience.

CRB averages 1.6 goals scored but concedes 1.2, indicating defensive frailty.

São Bernardo’s recent form yields 10 points, slightly ahead of CRB’s 9 points.

CRB’s high shot volume (23.8 per game) contrasts with São Bernardo’s more measured 11 shots.

What To Watch In The Data

São Bernardo to Win notes

  • In the single head-to-head meeting, the average goals were 5, indicating potential for open play.
  • However, São Bernardo’s low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus CRB’s high rate (80%) suggests this match may see tighter defensive focus from São Bernardo to counter CRB’s attacking threat, possibly limiting total goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

São Bernardo1.2
Avg goals scored
CRB1.6
São Bernardo0.4
Avg goals conceded
CRB1.2
São Bernardo20%
BTTS rate
CRB40%
São Bernardo20%
Over 2.5 goals
CRB80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
São Bernardo’s low goals conceded (0.4 per game) contrasts with CRB’s higher scoring (1.6) and conceding (1.2), suggesting a match with limited goals and a lower BTTS likelihood. São Bernardo’s 20% BTTS rate versus CRB’s 40% supports a cautious goals outlook favoring a tight game.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSão Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 40% · edge +8.2 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
São Bernardo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 48.2% for São Bernardo to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+8.2 pts). São Bernardo have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for CRB.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

São Bernardo

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
25 Sep 2026A Novorizontino0-0
19 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-0
14 Sep 2026A America Mineiro2-0
10 Sep 2026H Londrina1-2
06 Sep 2026A Ponte Preta2-0

CRB

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
27 Sep 2026H Cuiaba3-0
20 Sep 2026A Ponte Preta0-1
16 Sep 2026H Sport Recife2-1
10 Sep 2026A Operario-PR0-3
05 Sep 2026H America Mineiro3-1
Market aligned with main pickSão Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 40% · edge +8.2 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
São Bernardo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
São Bernardo’s recent form shows a solid defensive output with 10 points gained and only 0.4 goals conceded per game, underpinning their . CRB’s 9 points and higher goals conceded (1.2) reflect a more open but less stable form, favoring São Bernardo’s steadier momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%São Bernardo Over 2.5
80%CRB Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
In the single head-to-head meeting, the average goals were 5, indicating potential for open play. However, São Bernardo’s low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) versus CRB’s high rate (80%) suggests this match may see tighter defensive focus from São Bernardo to counter CRB’s attacking threat, possibly limiting total goals.

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