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Santa Clarav
NacionalPrimeira Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:15
Santa Clara v Nacional Stats
BT4Y best bet
Nacional to Win
- At 3.5, Nacional to Win is priced at roughly 29% implied probability. Our model has it closer to 63%, so the current line is showing a +34.2-point value edge.
- Santa Clara have a recent record of 1W-2D-2L, while Nacional come in at 3W-0D-2L across the same last-five lens.
- The result profile supports the Nacional to Win angle: Santa Clara have taken 1 win from their last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
- The result profile supports the Nacional to Win angle: Nacional have taken 3 wins from their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 20% of that sample.
- If the bookmaker is still close to 3.5, this is the market to check first because the data and the price are both pointing in the same direction.
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 29% · edge +34.2 pts
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5Load more odds for this section
Key match trends
A quick read of the strongest visible indicators.
60%Santa Clara Over 2.5
20%Nacional Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Recent form
Results and scoring shape from recent games.
Santa Clara
DWDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 104W 4D 2L
02 May 2026A Arouca2-2
26 Apr 2026H SC Braga2-1
18 Apr 2026A Casa Pia0-0
11 Apr 2026H Rio Ave0-2
03 Apr 2026A Sporting CP2-4
Nacional
LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 recordLast 103W 1D 6L
02 May 2026H AVS1-2
25 Apr 2026A Tondela2-0
18 Apr 2026H Alverca1-0
12 Apr 2026A Benfica0-2
04 Apr 2026H Estrela2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 29% · edge +34.2 pts
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5Load more odds for this section
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Goal-market data and related prices.
Santa Clara1.2
Avg goals scoredNacional1.2
Santa Clara1.8
Avg goals concededNacional0.8
Santa Clara60%
BTTS rateNacional20%
Santa Clara60%
Over 2.5 goalsNacional20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 57% · edge +0.9 pts
1.75
Bet HERE @ 1.75Load more odds for this section
Head-to-head
Recent meetings and related markets.
5Santa Clara wins
3Draws
2Nacional wins
11 Jan 2026Nacional v Santa Clara3-3
30 Mar 2025Santa Clara v Nacional1-0
04 Nov 2024Nacional v Santa Clara2-0
17 Mar 2024Santa Clara v Nacional0-1
11 Jan 2024Santa Clara v Nacional1-1
04 Nov 2023Nacional v Santa Clara1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 29% · edge +34.2 pts
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5Load more odds for this section
Corners, cards and shots
Detailed stat markets where available.
Santa Clara4.8
Avg corners forNacional5
Santa Clara9.2
Avg total cornersNacional13.6
Santa Clara2.8
Avg yellow cardsNacional3.2
Santa Clara10.2
Avg shotsNacional15
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 53% · edge +16.4 pts
1.9
Bet HERE @ 1.9Load more odds for this section
Player stats
Player props and player-level signals.
Load more player angles
Welinton Torrão To Assist / Key Pass AngleWelinton Torrão · 2 assists · 2.17 key passes/90
67/100
Bet HERE
C. RamírezNacional · Attacker
Goal threat80/100
Shots /902.62
SOT /901.36
Elias ManoelSanta Clara · Attacker
Goal threat73/100
Shots /903.5
SOT /901.75
Gonçalo PaciênciaSanta Clara · Attacker
Goal threat58/100
Shots /902.05
SOT /901.12
Daniel JúniorNacional · Midfielder
Goal threat35/100
Shots /901.61
SOT /901.21
Gabriel SilvaSanta Clara · Attacker
Goal threat55/100
Shots /902.21
SOT /900.87
José Luís Rocha TavaresSanta Clara · Midfielder
Goal threat17/100
Shots /900.72
SOT /900.41
UlissesNacional · Defender
Goal threat9/100
Shots /900.4
SOT /900.4
Martim WattsNacional · Midfielder
Goal threat1/100
Shots /900
SOT /900
Season team stats
Primeira Liga
Santa Clara32
PlayedNacional32
Santa Clara0.9
Avg goals forNacional1.1
Santa Clara1.3
Avg goals againstNacional1.3
Santa Clara9
Clean sheetsNacional7
Best odds for this sectionAway WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 29% · edge +34.2 pts
3.5
Bet HERE @ 3.5Load more odds for this section
League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Santa Clara | 33 | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -10 |
| 14 | Nacional | 31 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -8 |
Next step
Betting context
Use the best-bet case above as the starting point, then check the live odds and the full prediction before staking.
