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San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes
v
Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers

Major League Soccer | Sun 27 Sep, 03:30

San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

San Jose Earthquakes host Portland Timbers in a crucial Major League Soccer clash where playoff positioning is at stake. San Jose's recent form shows resilience with 9 points from their last fixtures, contrasting with Portland's more inconsistent 4 points. The Earthquakes' tactical setup emphasizes solid defensive organization and quick transitions, aiming to exploit Portland's defensive vulnerabilities. Portland Timbers, despite a higher goal-scoring rate, have struggled defensively, conceding over two goals per game recently. This match promises a tactical battle with San Jose's home advantage and form providing a slight edge.

BT4Y best bet

San Jose Earthquakes to Win

  • San Jose Earthquakes have secured 9 points recently, showing stronger momentum than Portland's 4 points.
  • Portland Timbers average 1.8 goals per game but concede 2.2, indicating defensive frailty.
  • San Jose's average 12.6 shots per game with 4.6 on target suggests efficient attacking chances.
  • Portland's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, but San Jose's defensive discipline could limit scoring.
  • San Jose ranks 5th with 42 points, ahead of Portland's 9th place and 32 points, highlighting stakes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors San Jose Earthquakes to win with a 67% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and home advantage. San Jose's balanced attack and defense, combined with Portland's defensive struggles, create a favorable scenario. The of 15.7% indicates the of 1.95 offer good value. Player-level data supports this, with key attackers like P. Judd showing strong goal threat and shot volume. No data limitations affect , making this a solid selection based on form, stats, and tactical context.

Model Win Probability67%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsSan Jose 9 vs Portland 4
Positive
Defensive StabilitySan Jose concedes 1.0 goals/game vs Portland 2.2
Positive
Key Player ThreatP. Judd 13 goals, 1.77 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

San Jose Earthquakes' recent form and home advantage position them well to secure victory against Portland Timbers. Their defensive solidity combined with effective attacking players like P. Judd provides a tactical and statistical edge. Portland's defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent form further support San Jose's chances in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“San Jose's blend of defensive organization and attacking efficiency, led by Judd's goal threat, makes them a compelling pick against a Portland side prone to defensive lapses.”

Key Data Signals

San Jose Earthquakes to Win evidence

San Jose Earthquakes have secured 9 points recently, showing stronger momentum than Portland's 4 points.

Portland Timbers average 1.8 goals per game but concede 2.2, indicating defensive frailty.

San Jose's average 12.6 shots per game with 4.6 on target suggests efficient attacking chances.

Portland's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, but San Jose's defensive discipline could limit scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

San Jose Earthquakes to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, indicating a tendency for open games.
  • Portland's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with San Jose's 40%, suggesting a clash between Portland's attacking openness and San Jose's defensive discipline.
  • This trend points to a match with potential for goals but also tactical containment by San Jose.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Jose Earthquakes1.4
Avg goals scored
Portland Timbers1.8
San Jose Earthquakes1
Avg goals conceded
Portland Timbers2.2
San Jose Earthquakes60%
BTTS rate
Portland Timbers80%
San Jose Earthquakes40%
Over 2.5 goals
Portland Timbers80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Portland Timbers have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a high BTTS rate, reflecting open games with scoring from both sides. San Jose's lower over 2.5 rate and stronger defense suggest a potentially tighter contest, but the attacking threat on both sides could still produce goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSan Jose Earthquakes to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 66.3% for San Jose Earthquakes to Win sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). San Jose Earthquakes have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Portland Timbers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Jose Earthquakes

DWWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
20 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC2-2
13 Sep 2026H Houston Dynamo1-0
10 Sep 2026A San Diego3-2
06 Sep 2026A Austin1-1
30 Aug 2026A Houston Dynamo0-0

Portland Timbers

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
20 Sep 2026H Atlanta United FC0-1
13 Sep 2026A FC Dallas1-2
10 Sep 2026H St. Louis City2-2
06 Sep 2026H Minnesota United FC5-4
30 Aug 2026H Austin1-2
Market aligned with main pickSan Jose Earthquakes to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
San Jose Earthquakes have collected 9 points recently, demonstrating improved consistency and defensive resilience, conceding just 1 goal per game. Portland Timbers' 4 points reflect struggles in defense, conceding 2.2 goals per game, which undermines their attacking output despite scoring 1.8 goals per game. This form contrast favors San Jose's chances to secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
80%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, indicating a tendency for open games. Portland's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with San Jose's 40%, suggesting a clash between Portland's attacking openness and San Jose's defensive discipline. This trend points to a match with potential for goals but also tactical containment by San Jose.

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