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San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes
v
Los Angeles Galaxy crestLos Angeles Galaxy

Major League Soccer | Sun 26 Jul, 03:30

San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy Stats

Data last updated: Mon 27 Jul 2026, 01:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The California Clásico between San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy promises a high-intensity clash marked by contrasting ambitions and shared defensive vulnerabilities. San Jose, second in the Western Conference, seeks to regain momentum after recent setbacks, relying on a potent attack that averages over two goals per game but struggles defensively, conceding in ten straight matches. Los Angeles Galaxy, despite inconsistent form and key injuries, maintain a remarkable 14-game away scoring streak and an unbeaten run in eight consecutive away meetings against San Jose, setting the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter where resilience and attacking prowess will be decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • San Jose's last four league matches have all featured over 2.5 goals.
  • Los Angeles Galaxy have scored in 14 consecutive away MLS fixtures.
  • San Jose have conceded in ten straight league matches, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Both teams average over 13 shots per match, with high-quality chances inside the penalty area.
  • Historical trends show Galaxy unbeaten in eight away matches against San Jose, supporting a competitive fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals highly with a 74.2% chance, reflecting both teams' strong offensive outputs and defensive weaknesses. San Jose averages more than two goals per game but concedes regularly, while Los Angeles Galaxy maintain a 14-game away scoring streak despite defensive lapses. Both sides generate over 13 shots per match, with a significant portion on target and inside the box, indicating sustained attacking pressure. The 20.1% positive at 1.85 confirms this is a sound selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability74.2% chance of Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Recent Scoring FormSan Jose's last 4 matches all Over 2.5 Goals
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilitySan Jose conceded in 10 straight matches; Galaxy concede 1.75 goals away
Positive
Shot VolumeBoth teams average 13+ shots per match
Positive
Value Edge20.1% positive edge at 1.85 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively, open game driven by San Jose's attacking ambition and Los Angeles Galaxy's consistent away scoring. Defensive frailties on both sides suggest multiple goals, with tactical intensity and rivalry stakes likely to fuel an entertaining contest. Over 2.5 Goals aligns well with the attacking profiles and recent form of both teams.

Main risk

The Galaxy's situation is different but equally tense.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“This fixture's blend of offensive firepower and defensive lapses makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice, especially given the Galaxy's sustained away scoring and San Jose's high shot volume inside the box.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

San Jose's last four league matches have all featured over 2.5 goals.

Los Angeles Galaxy have scored in 14 consecutive away MLS fixtures.

San Jose have conceded in ten straight league matches, highlighting defensive frailty.

Both teams average over 13 shots per match, with high-quality chances inside the penalty area.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match stand at 3.7, indicating a history of open, goal-rich games.
  • San Jose's recent four matches have all exceeded 2.5 goals, while Galaxy's 14 consecutive away scoring matches highlight sustained offensive threat.
  • These trends suggest a fast-paced game with frequent scoring opportunities, driven by both teams' attacking tempo and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

San Jose Earthquakes1.6
Avg goals scored
Los Angeles Galaxy1
San Jose Earthquakes2.4
Avg goals conceded
Los Angeles Galaxy2
San Jose Earthquakes80%
BTTS rate
Los Angeles Galaxy60%
San Jose Earthquakes80%
Over 2.5 goals
Los Angeles Galaxy60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.8 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams demonstrate prolific scoring combined with defensive fragility, creating a fertile environment for goals. San Jose averages over two goals per game and has conceded in every recent match, while Los Angeles Galaxy maintain a 14-match away scoring streak but concede nearly two goals per game on the road. These patterns suggest a match with multiple goals and both teams scoring is highly probable.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.8 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Los Angeles Galaxy to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Los Angeles Galaxy Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.85 with an implied probability of 54.1%, while the model estimates a 74.2% chance, indicating strong value. This price reflects the market's recognition of both teams' attacking strengths but may underestimate the likelihood of a high-scoring game given defensive vulnerabilities. The positive supports backing Over 2.5 Goals confidently at current .
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

San Jose Earthquakes5.8
Avg corners for
Los Angeles Galaxy5.5
San Jose Earthquakes10.4
Avg total corners
Los Angeles Galaxy10.25
San Jose Earthquakes3.2
Avg yellow cards
Los Angeles Galaxy3.25
San Jose Earthquakes10.4
Avg shots
Los Angeles Galaxy12
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
The match features high shot volumes, with San Jose averaging 10.4 shots and 5.2 on target per game, and Los Angeles Galaxy averaging 13.2 shots with 4 on target. Corner counts are balanced around six per team, indicating active wing play and set-piece opportunities. Disciplinary data shows moderate yellow card averages, reflecting a competitive but not overly aggressive contest likely to maintain attacking rhythm and shot volume.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

San Jose Earthquakes

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
23 Jul 2026H Orlando City SC0-4
24 May 2026A Portland Timbers3-1
17 May 2026H FC Dallas2-3
14 May 2026A Seattle Sounders2-3
10 May 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps1-1

Los Angeles Galaxy

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
23 Jul 2026H St. Louis City1-3
18 Jul 2026H Los Angeles FC0-3
24 May 2026H Houston Dynamo1-1
17 May 2026A Seattle Sounders2-0
14 May 2026A Sporting Kansas City1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Los Angeles Galaxy to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Los Angeles Galaxy Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
San Jose Earthquakes to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data highlights San Jose's tendency for high-scoring matches, with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, reflecting their attacking potency and defensive lapses. Los Angeles Galaxy show a 60% Over 2.5 rate and 60% BTTS, consistent with their ongoing away scoring streak but also defensive concessions. Both teams have earned 4 points in recent matches, indicating competitive but inconsistent form that supports an open game with multiple goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1San Jose Earthquakes wins
2Draws
7Los Angeles Galaxy wins
29 Jun 2025San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy1-1
29 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes0-1
01 Aug 2024San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy1-2
30 Jun 2024San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy0-3
22 Apr 2024Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes4-3
03 Mar 2024San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy1-3
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +4.8 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Los Angeles Galaxy to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
San Jose Earthquakes to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The head-to-head record shows Los Angeles Galaxy unbeaten in their last eight away matches against San Jose across all competitions, underscoring their psychological edge in this fixture. The average goals per game in these encounters is 3.7, supporting the expectation of multiple goals. While San Jose holds a higher league position, historical rivalry dynamics and Galaxy's resilience provide important context for the match outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes17
Played
Los Angeles Galaxy18
San Jose Earthquakes2.1
Avg goals for
Los Angeles Galaxy1.3
San Jose Earthquakes1.2
Avg goals against
Los Angeles Galaxy1.6
San Jose Earthquakes5
Clean sheets
Los Angeles Galaxy2
Best odds for this sectionLos Angeles Galaxy to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 27% · edge +11.8 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Load more odds for this section
Los Angeles Galaxy Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
San Jose Earthquakes to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season-long statistics reinforce the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals, with San Jose scoring 40 goals in 19 matches, averaging over two goals per game, while conceding 2.4 goals per match. Los Angeles Galaxy rank lower but maintain a strong away scoring record, averaging 1.75 goals conceded on the road. The attacking output combined with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides underpins the expectation of a high-scoring encounter.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3San Jose Earthquakes3317103415
11Los Angeles Galaxy2118567-5
San Jose Earthquakes sit second in the Western Conference with 32 points, reflecting strong overall performance but recent form dips. Los Angeles Galaxy occupy 10th place with 20 points, fighting to stay in playoff contention. While standings show a gap, the Galaxy's unbeaten away record against San Jose and rivalry intensity suggest league position may have limited influence on match dynamics, emphasizing motivation and tactical factors.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
60%Los Angeles Galaxy Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match stand at 3.7, indicating a history of open, goal-rich games. San Jose's recent four matches have all exceeded 2.5 goals, while Galaxy's 14 consecutive away scoring matches highlight sustained offensive threat. These trends suggest a fast-paced game with frequent scoring opportunities, driven by both teams' attacking tempo and defensive gaps.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy prediction

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