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Salernitana crestSalernitana
v
Bari crestBari

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 04 Oct, 19:30

Salernitana v Bari Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone C fixture features Salernitana hosting Bari, with Bari currently second in the standings and showing strong form with 16 points from recent matches. Salernitana sits 12th with 9 points, indicating a gap in consistency and results. Bari's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.2 goals per game, contrasts with Salernitana's more porous defense. The away side's tactical discipline and recent momentum position them as favorites, though Salernitana's home advantage and attacking potential add some unpredictability to this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Bari to Win

  • Bari ranks 2nd with 16 points, showing strong league form.
  • Salernitana is 12th with 9 points, indicating inconsistency.
  • Bari concedes only 0.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Salernitana concedes 1.2 goals per game, suggesting defensive vulnerability.
  • Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating moderate scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Bari to win with a 65.5% chance, reflecting their superior league position, defensive record, and recent form. Bari's low goals conceded rate (0.2 per game) underpins their ability to control matches and limit Salernitana's scoring opportunities. Salernitana's higher goals against average and lower points tally reinforce Bari's advantage. The price offers positive value given the model's and Bari's consistent performances. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a confident backing of Bari to win.

Model Chance49.7% model chance vs 34.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive RecordBari concedes 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent FormBari has 16 points vs Salernitana's 9
Positive
Value Edge49.7% model chance vs 34.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Data QualityNo limitations
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bari's tactical discipline and robust defense make them well-placed to secure victory against Salernitana, who have struggled defensively this season. Bari's consistent accumulation of points and ability to suppress opponents' attacks provide a strong foundation for this away win prediction.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Bari to Win

“Bari's defensive resilience and league standing strongly suggest they can control this match and secure all three points despite playing away from home.”

Key Data Signals

Bari to Win evidence

Bari ranks 2nd with 16 points, showing strong league form.

Salernitana is 12th with 9 points, indicating inconsistency.

Bari concedes only 0.2 goals per game, highlighting defensive strength.

Salernitana concedes 1.2 goals per game, suggesting defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

Bari to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.71, indicating relatively low-scoring games.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a moderate tempo with chances for goals, but defensive discipline may limit high-scoring outcomes.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Salernitana1.6
Avg goals scored
Bari1.4
Salernitana1.2
Avg goals conceded
Bari0.2
Salernitana80%
BTTS rate
Bari20%
Salernitana40%
Over 2.5 goals
Bari40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but Salernitana's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Bari's 20%, indicating Salernitana tends to be involved in higher-scoring games while Bari often keeps clean sheets. This suggests a match with moderate scoring, possibly favoring Bari's defensive approach.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Salernitana

LWDWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
26 Sep 2026A Crotone1-2
19 Sep 2026H Giugliano1-0
15 Sep 2026A Barletta1-1
11 Sep 2026H Potenza4-2
06 Sep 2026H Cavese1-1

Bari

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 1L
26 Sep 2026H Cosenza1-0
19 Sep 2026A Sorrento2-1
15 Sep 2026H Potenza0-0
11 Sep 2026A Team Altamura3-0
05 Sep 2026H Casarano1-0
Market aligned with main pickBari to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Bari's recent form is superior, with 13 points compared to Salernitana's 8 in the latest matches. Bari's ability to secure points consistently, combined with a strong defensive record, underlines their readiness to win this fixture. Salernitana's lower scoring and points accumulation indicate form struggles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBari to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Bari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 49.7% for Bari to Win sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Bari have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Salernitana.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Salernitana Over 2.5
40%Bari Over 2.5
1.71H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.71, indicating relatively low-scoring games. Both teams have a 40% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a moderate tempo with chances for goals, but defensive discipline may limit high-scoring outcomes.

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