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Rosenborg crestRosenborg
v
Fredrikstad crestFredrikstad

Eliteserien | Mon 27 Jul, 18:00

Rosenborg v Fredrikstad Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 22:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Rosenborg face Fredrikstad in Eliteserien on Mon 27 Jul, 18:00. Rosenborg enter this match with strong momentum, having won their last two league games 3-0 while controlling possession and creating numerous chances.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Rosenborg to win

  • At 7/10, Rosenborg to win implies roughly 59%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Their defensive numbers remain less convincing.
  • Fredrikstad have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Rosenborg to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Rosenborg sit 5 in the table, while Fredrikstad sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Rosenborg to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 59% while the model sits nearer 50% (-9.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +7.9 pts edge at 1.7.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Rosenborg to win sits against roughly 59% implied by the current price. Fredrikstad have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Rosenborg to win angle more than a raw possession edge. Their defensive numbers remain less convincing.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 59% implied
Negative
Fredrikstad have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Rosenborg sit 5 in the table, while Fredrikstad sit 8.Visible data support
Positive
Their defensive numbers remain less convincing.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Rosenborg Win is the preferred angle because their defensive numbers remain less convincing. Fredrikstad have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Rosenborg Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Fredrikstad carry the stronger scoring threat, but Rosenborg must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Fredrikstad carry the stronger scoring threat, but Rosenborg must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Rosenborg to win evidence

Their defensive numbers remain less convincing.

Fredrikstad have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Rosenborg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Rosenborg sit 5 in the table, while Fredrikstad sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Rosenborg to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Rosenborg2
    Avg goals scored
    Fredrikstad1
    Rosenborg1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Fredrikstad1.2
    Rosenborg40%
    BTTS rate
    Fredrikstad60%
    Rosenborg80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Fredrikstad40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 40% for Rosenborg and 60% for Fredrikstad, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRosenborg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 60% · edge -10.3 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 70%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Rosenborg to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Rosenborg v Fredrikstadcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Rosenborg

    WWDLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    18 Jul 2026A Start3-0
    12 Jul 2026H Kristiansund BK3-0
    29 May 2026H Bodo/Glimt2-2
    25 May 2026A KFUM Oslo0-2
    16 May 2026H Aalesund2-3

    Fredrikstad

    LLWDW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    17 Jul 2026A Bodo/Glimt0-1
    11 Jul 2026H Lillestrom0-2
    29 May 2026H Start2-1
    25 May 2026A Sandefjord1-1
    16 May 2026H Ham-Kam2-1
    Market aligned with main pickRosenborg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 60% · edge -10.3 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Rosenborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.38
    Check odds @ 1.38
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Rosenborg Over 2.5
    40%Fredrikstad Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Rosenborg sit at 80% and Fredrikstad sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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