Football Stats Hub

Rio Ave crestRio Ave
v
Estrela crestEstrela

Primeira Liga | Mon 14 Sep, 18:45

Rio Ave v Estrela Stats

Data last updated: Sun 13 Sep 2026, 08:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estrela visit Rio Ave in a Primeira Liga clash where Estrela's strong early season form contrasts with Rio Ave's struggles. Estrela have won all three of their opening matches, showcasing an attacking style that has yielded an average of 2.2 goals per game. Rio Ave, sitting near the relegation zone, have scored just 0.4 goals per game and conceded heavily, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Estrela's momentum and offensive efficiency set the stage for a challenging away fixture against a Rio Ave side yet to find consistent form.

BT4Y best bet

Estrela to Win

  • Estrela have won all three opening league matches, scoring 2.2 goals per game on average.
  • Rio Ave have managed only 0.4 goals per game and conceded 2.2, highlighting defensive issues.
  • Estrela's over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating open, high-scoring games.
  • Rio Ave have a 0% BTTS rate, while Estrela have 100%, suggesting contrasting offensive and defensive tendencies.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Estrela to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Estrela's consistent goal scoring and ability to maintain clean sheets against weaker opposition underpin this . Rio Ave's poor goal production and defensive frailty further tilt the balance. The at 2.5 offer positive value given the implied 40% chance, making Estrela a strong pick based on form and season-long performance. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Recent formEstrela unbeaten with 9 points; Rio Ave struggling with 3 points
Strong positive
Goal scoringEstrela 2.2 goals/game vs Rio Ave 0.4
Strong positive
Defensive recordRio Ave concede 2.2 goals/game; Estrela concede 1.8
Positive
Price valueOdds imply 40% chance vs model 70% chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Estrela's early season control and attacking efficiency make them the clear choice to win this fixture. Their ability to score consistently contrasts sharply with Rio Ave's struggles to find the net and defensive lapses. Estrela's form and goal threat provide a solid foundation for backing them to secure victory in this encounter.

Main risk

The overall match winner does not matter, but it loses if either team fails to score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Estrela's attacking momentum and defensive resilience set them apart in this matchup, making them the logical pick despite the challenges of an away fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Estrela to Win evidence

Estrela have won all three opening league matches, scoring 2.2 goals per game on average.

Rio Ave have managed only 0.4 goals per game and conceded 2.2, highlighting defensive issues.

Estrela's over 2.5 goals rate is 100%, indicating open, high-scoring games.

Rio Ave have a 0% BTTS rate, while Estrela have 100%, suggesting contrasting offensive and defensive tendencies.

What To Watch In The Data

Estrela to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.88, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Estrela's recent over 2.5 goals rate at 100% suggests this trend may continue, with both teams likely to contribute to the goal tally.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Rio Ave3
Avg corners for
Estrela3.6
Rio Ave8.6
Avg total corners
Estrela8.4
Rio Ave1.2
Avg yellow cards
Estrela2.4
Rio Ave6.6
Avg shots
Estrela11
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Estrela average slightly more corners and shots than Rio Ave, indicating territorial advantage and attacking pressure. Rio Ave's higher yellow card average suggests a more aggressive defensive approach, which could lead to set-piece opportunities and influence the game's flow.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Primeira Liga hubRio Ave v Estrela predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rio Ave0.4
Avg goals scored
Estrela2.2
Rio Ave2.2
Avg goals conceded
Estrela1.8
Rio Ave0%
BTTS rate
Estrela100%
Rio Ave40%
Over 2.5 goals
Estrela100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 75% · edge +10.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Estrela's matches have consistently featured over 2.5 goals and BTTS, reflecting their offensive style and occasional defensive lapses. Rio Ave's low scoring and conceding pattern suggest they may struggle to contain Estrela, making goals and BTTS likely in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Estrela Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The of 2.5 for Estrela to win represent a positive value opportunity given the model's 70% win probability. This pricing reflects market recognition of Estrela's strong form but still offers a profitable angle for bettors confident in their continued control.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rio Ave

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 4L
06 Sep 2026A Santa Clara0-4
28 Aug 2026H Sporting CP0-4
22 Aug 2026A Estoril2-0
15 Aug 2026H FC Porto0-2
09 Aug 2026A GIL Vicente0-1

Estrela

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 0L
10 Sep 2026H SC Braga2-1
05 Sep 2026H Famalicao2-2
30 Aug 2026A Nacional3-2
15 Aug 2026A Alverca2-2
08 Aug 2026H Sporting CP2-2
Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Estrela Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Estrela's perfect start with three wins and nine points contrasts with Rio Ave's solitary win and three points. Estrela's form includes strong attacking displays and defensive solidity, while Rio Ave have struggled to score and have conceded heavily, indicating momentum favors Estrela.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Rio Ave wins
2Draws
1Estrela wins
15 Mar 2026Rio Ave v Estrela2-1
25 Oct 2025Estrela v Rio Ave1-2
05 May 2025Rio Ave v Estrela2-0
23 Dec 2024Estrela v Rio Ave1-0
14 Apr 2024Estrela v Rio Ave2-2
02 Dec 2023Rio Ave v Estrela1-1
Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The eight previous meetings between these teams have averaged 2.88 goals per game, showing a tendency for moderately high-scoring encounters. While this provides some background, current form and season stats offer stronger guidance for this fixture's outcome.
Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Rio Ave5
Played
Estrela5
Rio Ave0.4
Avg goals for
Estrela2.2
Rio Ave2.2
Avg goals against
Estrela1.8
Rio Ave1
Clean sheets
Estrela0
Market aligned with main pickEstrela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Estrela Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Estrela's season stats reveal a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a defense conceding 1.8, supporting their winning chances. Rio Ave's low scoring rate and high goals conceded underline their vulnerability, reinforcing Estrela's advantage.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Estrela952302
16Rio Ave35104-9
Estrela's position in 6th place with nine points reflects their strong start and competitive edge in the league. Rio Ave's 16th place and three points highlight their relegation battle and form issues. The standings underscore the stakes and pressure on Rio Ave to improve.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Rio Ave Over 2.5
100%Estrela Over 2.5
2.88H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.88, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Estrela's recent over 2.5 goals rate at 100% suggests this trend may continue, with both teams likely to contribute to the goal tally.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Rio Ave v Estrela prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Benfica v GIL VicentePrimeira Liga · Sun 13 Sep 18:00Arouca v Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga · Sun 13 Sep 18:00Famalicao v Sporting CPPrimeira Liga · Sun 13 Sep 20:30Moreirense v MaritimoPrimeira Liga · Mon 14 Sep 20:15

Competition and hubs

Primeira Liga hubPrimeira Liga hubRio Ave v Estrela predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre