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Rep. Of Ireland crestRep. Of Ireland
v
Israel crestIsrael

UEFA Nations League | Sun 04 Oct, 19:45

Rep. Of Ireland v Israel Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Israel and Ireland face off in a crucial Nations League clash after both teams suffered opening defeats, heightening the stakes in Group 3. Israel's recent matches have been marked by high-scoring affairs, reflecting their attacking potency but defensive vulnerabilities, especially with key defenders missing. Ireland, despite a blunt attacking display in their last outing, possess a broader competitive record of productive away performances and goal scoring, led by Troy Parrott. Both sides seek to bounce back, with tactical emphasis on exploiting defensive gaps and generating offensive momentum in a match expected to open up.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Israel's last nine competitive matches all featured at least three goals.
  • Ireland averages 1.8 goals per game over their last ten competitive fixtures.
  • Israel concedes 2.3 goals per game, indicating defensive openness.
  • 13 of Ireland's last 20 away games have gone over 2.5 goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong pick given Israel's consistent high-scoring matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 2.3 conceded recently, combined with Ireland's solid away scoring record. The match context suggests an open game with defensive frailties on both sides and attacking players like Troy Parrott poised to capitalize. The 17.9% and 66.7% underline this bet's appeal, supported by a 76 level. No price warnings apply, and data quality is robust for both teams.

Israel's recent goals conceded2.3 per game
Strong positive
Ireland's away goal scoring rate1.8 goals per game
Positive
Match's high-scoring trend9 of Israel's last 9 matches over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Value edge63.1% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture is set for an open contest with both teams eager to recover from early setbacks. Ireland's reliance on Troy Parrott for goals and Israel's defensive vulnerabilities suggest multiple scoring opportunities. The combination of attacking intent and defensive lapses makes Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice, reflecting the tactical and statistical indicators for a lively game.

Main risk

Ireland's biggest problem in Pristina was not simply losing but how little they created.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“Israel's pattern of conceding goals combined with Ireland's away scoring form creates a compelling case for a high-scoring game. Defensive absences on both sides further increase the likelihood of goals flowing in this Nations League encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Israel's last nine competitive matches all featured at least three goals.

Ireland averages 1.8 goals per game over their last ten competitive fixtures.

Israel concedes 2.3 goals per game, indicating defensive openness.

13 of Ireland's last 20 away games have gone over 2.5 goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine competitive matches, Israel has consistently produced at least three goals per game, while Ireland's last 20 away games have seen 13 matches exceed 2.5 goals.
  • This recent trend highlights a fast tempo and attacking openness, indicating that the fixture is likely to continue this pattern of high goal totals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rep. Of Ireland1.67
Avg goals scored
Israel0.33
Rep. Of Ireland1
Avg goals conceded
Israel2
Rep. Of Ireland33%
BTTS rate
Israel33%
Rep. Of Ireland67%
Over 2.5 goals
Israel67%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score in recent matches, with Israel averaging 2.3 goals conceded and Ireland scoring 1.8 per game. However, their BTTS rates are moderate at 33%, suggesting that while goals are expected, both teams scoring is less certain, likely due to Ireland's recent attacking absences and Israel's fluctuating defense.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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Rep. Of Ireland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Rep. Of Ireland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Israel Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Israel to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The 63.1% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 67% for Ireland and 67% for Israel, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Ireland's broader competitive record shows a higher goal average and frequent high-scoring away games.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisrelated match predictionplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rep. Of Ireland

DWL
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
01 Oct 2026H Austria2-2
27 Sep 2026A Israel3-0
24 Sep 2026A Kosovo0-1

Israel

DLL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
01 Oct 2026H Kosovo0-0
27 Sep 2026H Rep. Of Ireland0-3
24 Sep 2026A Austria1-3
Best odds for this sectionRep. Of Ireland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 65% · edge +13.5 pts
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Rep. Of Ireland to WinBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Israel Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Israel to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 21%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form data shows Ireland averaging 1.67 goals and 1 goal conceded per game, with a 67% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals. Israel's form is similar, scoring 0.33 goals but conceding 2 per game, also with a 67% over 2.5 rate. These figures confirm a pattern of open matches with multiple goals, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Rep. Of Ireland Over 2.5
67%Israel Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last nine competitive matches, Israel has consistently produced at least three goals per game, while Ireland's last 20 away games have seen 13 matches exceed 2.5 goals. This recent trend highlights a fast tempo and attacking openness, indicating that the fixture is likely to continue this pattern of high goal totals.

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