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Renate crestRenate
v
Treviso crestTreviso

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 27 Sep, 16:30

Renate v Treviso Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C Girone A clash features Treviso visiting Renate, with Treviso currently seventh in the table and showing stronger early season form. Treviso have accumulated nine points with a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, while Renate sit bottom with just two points and a leaky defense. Treviso's tactical setup emphasizes defensive solidity and efficient counter-attacks, contrasting with Renate's struggles to convert chances and contain opponents. The away side's and recent results set the stage for a competitive match where Treviso look well-positioned to claim victory.

BT4Y best bet

Treviso to Win

  • Treviso ranks 7th with 9 points, Renate 20th with 2 points
  • Treviso concedes only 0.8 goals per game, Renate concedes 1.4
  • Treviso's recent form yields 1.2 goals scored per game versus Renate's 0.8
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating openness but Treviso's defense is stronger
  • Treviso's to win is 70%, with positive value at 3.0

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Treviso to Win is supported by a 70% , reflecting their superior form and defensive record compared to Renate. The away side's efficient attack and solid defense create a strong football read for victory. The pricing at 3.0 offers positive value with a 36.7% edge, making this a compelling selection without price sensitivity. Data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in the model's assessment.

Model Chance48.3% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge48.3% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormTreviso 9 points vs Renate 2
Strong positive
Defensive RecordTreviso concedes 0.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Data QualityGood data coverage for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Treviso's tactical discipline and recent form make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to maintain defensive shape while capitalizing on counter-attacks contrasts with Renate's struggles, providing a strong foundation for an away victory. The data confirms Treviso's superior scoring and defensive metrics, supporting in this pick.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Treviso's balanced approach combining defensive resilience and effective attacking transitions positions them well to secure a win against a struggling Renate side.”

Key Data Signals

Treviso to Win evidence

Treviso ranks 7th with 9 points, Renate 20th with 2 points

Treviso concedes only 0.8 goals per game, Renate concedes 1.4

Treviso's recent form yields 1.2 goals scored per game versus Renate's 0.8

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating openness but Treviso's defense is stronger

What To Watch In The Data

Treviso to Win notes

  • Over the early season sample, Renate has a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Treviso's rate is 40%.
  • This suggests the fixture could produce moderate goal totals, with tempo and defensive solidity from Treviso potentially limiting a high-scoring game but allowing for key moments of attacking threat.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Renate0.8
Avg goals scored
Treviso1.2
Renate1.4
Avg goals conceded
Treviso0.8
Renate60%
BTTS rate
Treviso60%
Renate60%
Over 2.5 goals
Treviso40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating openness in matches, but Treviso's stronger defense (0.8 goals conceded per game) suggests they can limit Renate's scoring chances. Treviso's slightly higher scoring rate (1.2 goals per game) supports a moderate goal expectation with potential for both teams to score.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Renate

LDDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
20 Sep 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo1-2
17 Sep 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi0-0
13 Sep 2026A Lumezzane2-2
07 Sep 2026H Novara1-2
31 Aug 2026H Cittadella0-1

Treviso

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
21 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina0-0
17 Sep 2026A Union Brescia2-2
13 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli2-1
07 Sep 2026A Alcione1-1
31 Aug 2026H Lecco1-0
Market aligned with main pickTreviso to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Treviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Treviso's accumulation of 9 points early in the season contrasts sharply with Renate's 2 points, reflecting better momentum and . Treviso's ability to score more and concede less underlines their current superiority, making them the in-form side likely to control the match tempo and outcome.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTreviso to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Treviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 48.3% for Treviso to Win sits against roughly 33.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Treviso have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Renate.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Renate Over 2.5
40%Treviso Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the early season sample, Renate has a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Treviso's rate is 40%. This suggests the fixture could produce moderate goal totals, with tempo and defensive solidity from Treviso potentially limiting a high-scoring game but allowing for key moments of attacking threat.

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