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Renate crestRenate
v
Giana Erminio crestGiana Erminio

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 11 Oct, 13:30

Renate v Giana Erminio Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 09:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Renate and Giana Erminio meet in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both sides have struggled to find consistent attacking form. Renate has scored less than one goal per game recently, while Giana Erminio matches that low output. Defensively, both teams have conceded around one goal per match, indicating tight contests. With both teams near the bottom of the table and limited offensive threat, this fixture is likely to be cagey and low scoring, with tactical caution prevailing as each side seeks to avoid defeat.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game recently
  • Renate concedes 1.2 goals per match, Giana Erminio 1.0, showing moderate defensive resilience
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 40% of Renate's games and 20% of Giana Erminio's games
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with both teams scoring, but low scoring overall suggests tight games

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 63.6% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting the low scoring trends of both Renate and Giana Erminio. Recent form data shows both teams averaging less than one goal per game, and their defensive records suggest matches tend to be tight. The at 1.75 offer positive value given the implied chance is 57.1%, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for a fixture likely to be tactically cautious and low scoring.

Model chance63.6% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+6.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent scoring formLow goals per game for both teams
Strong positive
Implied chance vs model63.6% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+6.5 pts)
Positive
BTTS rate60% for both teams, but low scoring
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a cautious encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities as both Renate and Giana Erminio have struggled offensively this season. Their defensive solidity and low scoring averages suggest Under 2.5 Goals is a logical outcome, reflecting the tactical nature and stakes of this Serie C fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring outlook

“This match features two sides with limited attacking threat and solid defensive setups, making a low-scoring game the most probable scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game recently

Renate concedes 1.2 goals per match, Giana Erminio 1.0, showing moderate defensive resilience

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches with both teams scoring, but low scoring overall suggests tight games

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2, slightly above 2.5 but still indicative of generally tight contests.
  • This trend suggests a moderate tempo with occasional goal opportunities but no consistent high scoring, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals forecast.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Renate0.8
Avg goals scored
Giana Erminio0.8
Renate1.2
Avg goals conceded
Giana Erminio1
Renate60%
BTTS rate
Giana Erminio60%
Renate40%
Over 2.5 goals
Giana Erminio20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 57% · edge +6.5 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, yet their low average goals scored and conceded suggest matches are tight and low scoring. This combination points to games where both teams may score but within a low total goal count, supporting Under 2.5 Goals.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Renate

DLLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 5L
03 Oct 2026A Ospitaletto1-1
27 Sep 2026H Treviso0-1
20 Sep 2026A Arzignano Valchiampo1-2
17 Sep 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi0-0
13 Sep 2026A Lumezzane2-2

Giana Erminio

DDDDL
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 4L
04 Oct 2026A Treviso0-0
26 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli1-1
20 Sep 2026A Folgore Caratese1-1
17 Sep 2026H Trento2-2
13 Sep 2026A Lecco0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Giana Erminio to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Renate Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Renate to WinBetMGM guide price · model 38%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Recent form shows both Renate and Giana Erminio averaging under one goal per game and conceding around one goal, indicating matches tend to be low scoring. This recent output aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals selection, reflecting ongoing offensive struggles.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Giana Erminio to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Renate Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
The 63.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+6.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Renate and 20% for Giana Erminio, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Renate Over 2.5
20%Giana Erminio Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.2, slightly above 2.5 but still indicative of generally tight contests. This trend suggests a moderate tempo with occasional goal opportunities but no consistent high scoring, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals forecast.

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