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Reggiana crestReggiana
v
Spezia crestSpezia

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 04 Oct, 16:30

Reggiana v Spezia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spezia enters this Serie C - Girone B clash in strong form, leading the table with 19 points and boasting a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game. Reggiana, sitting fourth with 14 points, has shown defensive solidity but a more modest scoring rate. Spezia's offensive efficiency and current momentum position them as favorites, while Reggiana's resilience suggests a competitive encounter. Tactical discipline and Spezia's ability to convert chances will be key factors in determining the outcome at this stage of the season.

BT4Y best bet

Spezia to Win

  • Spezia leads the league with 19 points, indicating strong overall form.
  • Spezia averages 2.4 goals per game, showcasing attacking prowess.
  • Reggiana has a solid defense, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.
  • Spezia's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting frequent high-scoring matches.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating goal-scoring potential on both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Spezia as a clear favorite with a 67.5% chance to win, supported by their league-leading points tally and superior attacking output averaging 2.4 goals per game. Their strong over 2.5 goals rate of 80% reflects an aggressive style that often breaks down defenses. Reggiana's more modest scoring and defensive record suggest they may struggle to contain Spezia's offense. The pricing at 2.4 offers positive value against the implied chance of 41.7%, making Spezia to win a compelling selection in this fixture.

Model Win Probability67.5%
Strong positive
Spezia Goals Per Game2.4
Strong positive
Reggiana Goals Against Per Game0.8
Neutral
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Spezia)80%
Positive
Value Edge56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Spezia's superior attacking form and league leadership make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to consistently score goals combined with Reggiana's less prolific offense suggests Spezia will control the match and capitalize on key chances to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Spezia's offensive efficiency and current momentum give them a clear edge in this matchup, making them the logical choice for victory based on both form and attacking quality.”

Key Data Signals

Spezia to Win evidence

Spezia leads the league with 19 points, indicating strong overall form.

Spezia averages 2.4 goals per game, showcasing attacking prowess.

Reggiana has a solid defense, conceding only 0.8 goals per game.

Spezia's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting frequent high-scoring matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Spezia to Win notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.86, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters historically.
  • However, Spezia's recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate suggests an upward trend in goal frequency, driven by their attacking improvements this season.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Reggiana1.8
Avg goals scored
Spezia2.4
Reggiana0.8
Avg goals conceded
Spezia0.6
Reggiana60%
BTTS rate
Spezia60%
Reggiana40%
Over 2.5 goals
Spezia80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 33%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, and Spezia's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals with an 80% rate. This suggests an open game with multiple scoring chances, driven by Spezia's attacking style and Reggiana's willingness to engage offensively.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Spezia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 56.7% for Spezia to Win sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Spezia have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 10 for Reggiana.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Reggiana

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
27 Sep 2026A Perugia0-1
20 Sep 2026H Latina1-0
16 Sep 2026A Vis Pesaro4-1
12 Sep 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19371-1
06 Sep 2026H Vado3-1

Spezia

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 0L
27 Sep 2026A Pescara2-1
21 Sep 2026H Vis Pesaro3-1
16 Sep 2026A Perugia3-0
12 Sep 2026H Livorno2-0
06 Sep 2026A Sambenedettese2-1
Market aligned with main pickSpezia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Spezia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Spezia's accumulation of 19 points at the top of the table contrasts with Reggiana's 14 points in fourth place, highlighting Spezia's superior recent form. This momentum is backed by their higher goal-scoring rate and consistent performances, suggesting and tactical cohesion.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Reggiana Over 2.5
80%Spezia Over 2.5
1.86H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.86, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters historically. However, Spezia's recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate suggests an upward trend in goal frequency, driven by their attacking improvements this season.

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