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Real Salt Lake crestReal Salt Lake
v
San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer | Thu 15 Oct, 02:30

Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Real Salt Lake face San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer on Thu 15 Oct, 02:30. Real Salt Lake come in with 3 recent points and 0.8 goals per match, while San Jose Earthquakes have 11 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

San Jose Earthquakes to Win

  • At 4, San Jose Earthquakes to Win implies roughly 25%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
  • San Jose Earthquakes have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 3 for Real Salt Lake.
  • San Jose Earthquakes have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the San Jose Earthquakes to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Real Salt Lake sit 11 in the table, while San Jose Earthquakes sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for San Jose Earthquakes to Win sits against roughly 25% implied by the current price. San Jose Earthquakes have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 3 for Real Salt Lake.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 25% implied
Strong positive
San Jose Earthquakes have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support
Positive
San Jose Earthquakes have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: San Jose Earthquakes Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers San Jose Earthquakes have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 3 for Real Salt Lake. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

San Jose Earthquakes to Win evidence

San Jose Earthquakes have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 3 for Real Salt Lake.

San Jose Earthquakes have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the San Jose Earthquakes Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Real Salt Lake sit 11 in the table, while San Jose Earthquakes sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

San Jose Earthquakes to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Real Salt Lake0.8
    Avg goals scored
    San Jose Earthquakes2
    Real Salt Lake1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    San Jose Earthquakes1.2
    Real Salt Lake20%
    BTTS rate
    San Jose Earthquakes80%
    Real Salt Lake60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    San Jose Earthquakes60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 83% vs implied 89% · edge -5.9 pts
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Real Salt Lake and 60% for San Jose Earthquakes, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSan Jose Earthquakes to WinBetUK guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
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    San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 65%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    San Jose Earthquakes to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Real Salt Lake

    LWLLL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 8L
    11 Oct 2026A Philadelphia Union1-2
    27 Sep 2026H New England Revolution3-0
    24 Sep 2026A Seattle Sounders0-2
    20 Sep 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps0-3
    13 Sep 2026H New York City FC0-2

    San Jose Earthquakes

    DWDWW
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    11 Oct 2026A Colorado Rapids1-1
    27 Sep 2026H Portland Timbers3-1
    20 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC2-2
    13 Sep 2026H Houston Dynamo1-0
    10 Sep 2026A San Diego3-2
    Market aligned with main pickSan Jose Earthquakes to WinBetUK guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
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    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Real Salt Lake Over 2.5
    60%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
    3.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Real Salt Lake sit at 60% and San Jose Earthquakes sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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