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RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig
v
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

Bundesliga | Sun 13 Sep, 14:30

RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

RB Leipzig face Hamburger SV in Bundesliga on Sun 13 Sep, 14:30. Leipzig’s league standing makes them clear favourites, though HSV's eight-match unbeaten home run creates significant resistance in the 1X2 market. Hamburger SV are currently protecting an eight-match unbeaten streak at the Volksparkstadion, making them incredibly difficult to beat at home.

BT4Y best bet

Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz

  • At 13/2, Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 28%.
  • Can Hamburger SV’s home grit blunt RB Leipzig’s top-four charge at the Volksparkstadion?
  • RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV.
  • RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • RB Leipzig sit 9 in the table, while Hamburger SV sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 28% for Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV. Can Hamburger SV’s home grit blunt RB Leipzig’s top-four charge at the Volksparkstadion?

Model chance vs price28% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 3.Visible data support
Positive
RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Can Hamburger SV’s home grit blunt RB Leipzig’s top-four.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: RB Leipzig Win is the preferred angle because can Hamburger SV’s home grit blunt RB Leipzig’s top-four charge at the Volksparkstadion? RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV. They face an RB Leipzig side chasing a top-four place but searching for rhythm.

Main risk

They face an RB Leipzig side chasing a top-four place but searching for rhythm.

Key Data Signals

Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz evidence

Can Hamburger SV’s home grit blunt RB Leipzig’s top-four charge at the Volksparkstadion?

RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Hamburger SV.

RB Leipzig have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the RB Leipzig Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

RB Leipzig sit 9 in the table, while Hamburger SV sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    RB Leipzig7
    Avg corners for
    Hamburger SV2.5
    RB Leipzig11
    Avg total corners
    Hamburger SV6.5
    RB Leipzig0.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Hamburger SV1
    RB Leipzig22
    Avg shots
    Hamburger SV8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 58% · edge +4.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    RB Leipzig2
    Avg goals scored
    Hamburger SV0
    RB Leipzig1.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Hamburger SV3.5
    RB Leipzig50%
    BTTS rate
    Hamburger SV0%
    RB Leipzig100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Hamburger SV50%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 90% · edge -2.1 pts
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 100% for RB Leipzig and 50% for Hamburger SV, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -1.2 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    RB Leipzig Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.21
    Check odds @ 1.21
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    RB Leipzig to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    RB Leipzig

    LW
    Last 51W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 1L
    05 Sep 2026A Werder Bremen1-3
    29 Aug 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach3-0

    Hamburger SV

    LL
    Last 50W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 2L
    06 Sep 2026H FSV Mainz 050-5
    29 Aug 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-2
    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -1.2 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.08
    Check odds @ 1.08
    RB Leipzig Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.21
    Check odds @ 1.21
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    6RB Leipzig wins
    1Draws
    1Hamburger SV wins
    01 Mar 2026Hamburger SV v RB Leipzig1-2
    18 Oct 2025RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV2-1
    18 Oct 2022RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV4-0
    23 Apr 2019Hamburger SV v RB Leipzig1-3
    27 Jan 2018RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV1-1
    08 Sep 2017Hamburger SV v RB Leipzig0-2
    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -1.2 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    The head-to-head sample gives context for RB Leipzig to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    RB Leipzig2
    Played
    Hamburger SV2
    RB Leipzig2
    Avg goals for
    Hamburger SV0
    RB Leipzig1.5
    Avg goals against
    Hamburger SV3.5
    RB Leipzig1
    Clean sheets
    Hamburger SV0
    Market aligned with main pickRB Leipzig to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 75% · edge -1.2 pts
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Load more odds for this section
    RB Leipzig Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.21
    Check odds @ 1.21
    Season data supports RB Leipzig to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9RB Leipzig321011
    18Hamburger SV02002-7
    RB Leipzig sit in position 9, while Hamburger SV sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Into matches, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Mainz assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%RB Leipzig Over 2.5
    50%Hamburger SV Over 2.5
    3.13H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: RB Leipzig sit at 100% and Hamburger SV sit at 50% with the H2H average at 3.13 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.