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RB Bragantino crestRB Bragantino
v
Cruzeiro crestCruzeiro

Serie A | Tue 13 Oct, 01:00

RB Bragantino v Cruzeiro Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 08:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features RB Bragantino hosting Cruzeiro in a contest where Cruzeiro's recent momentum and tactical discipline stand out. Cruzeiro has collected nine points in their last fixtures, showing a more effective attack and defensive resilience compared to RB Bragantino's modest recent returns. The away side's ability to capitalize on transitions and maintain compact defensive shape could prove decisive, especially as RB Bragantino has struggled to convert chances despite decent possession and shot volumes. The fixture carries importance for Cruzeiro to consolidate their higher league standing and maintain pressure on the top teams.

BT4Y best bet

Cruzeiro to Win

  • Cruzeiro holds a 70% to win with positive value at 3.2 .
  • RB Bragantino averages 22 shots per game but struggles with finishing compared to Cruzeiro's clinical edge.
  • Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, but Cruzeiro's defensive solidity offers an advantage.
  • Cruzeiro ranks 5th with 48 points, showing stronger season consistency than RB Bragantino at 11th with 37 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Cruzeiro's 70% model win probability reflects their superior recent form, higher league standing, and efficient attacking output. Despite RB Bragantino's higher shot volume, Cruzeiro's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline underpins this . The positive at 3.2 indicates the market underestimates Cruzeiro's chances. Player-level data highlights key contributors like Matheus Pereira and Kaio Jorge, whose goal threat and shot accuracy enhance Cruzeiro's attacking potency. No data limitations affect this analysis, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Market Odds46.3% model chance vs 31.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsCruzeiro 9 vs RB Bragantino 2
Strong positive
Player Goal ThreatMatheus Pereira & Kaio Jorge high shot accuracy
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cruzeiro's tactical discipline and recent form provide a solid foundation for an away win. Their ability to efficiently convert chances and maintain defensive shape contrasts with RB Bragantino's struggles in front of goal, making Cruzeiro the more reliable choice in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cruzeiro's blend of clinical finishing and defensive organization makes them a compelling pick to secure victory away from home, especially given RB Bragantino's inefficiency in converting chances despite high shot counts.”

Key Data Signals

Cruzeiro to Win evidence

Cruzeiro holds a 70% to win with positive value at 3.2 .

RB Bragantino averages 22 shots per game but struggles with finishing compared to Cruzeiro's clinical edge.

Both teams have an 80% BTTS rate, but Cruzeiro's defensive solidity offers an advantage.

Cruzeiro ranks 5th with 48 points, showing stronger season consistency than RB Bragantino at 11th with 37 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Cruzeiro to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, with a high frequency of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches.
  • This trend suggests an open game with attacking intent from both sides, driven by transitions and set-piece opportunities, supporting expectations for multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

RB Bragantino1
Avg goals scored
Cruzeiro2
RB Bragantino1.6
Avg goals conceded
Cruzeiro1.4
RB Bragantino80%
BTTS rate
Cruzeiro80%
RB Bragantino40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cruzeiro80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have an 80% rate for both teams to score, reflecting open attacking play. However, Cruzeiro's slightly better defensive record and tactical discipline suggest a controlled game with goals likely but not excessive, supporting a competitive match with scoring from both sides.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 46.3% for Cruzeiro to Win sits against roughly 31.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cruzeiro have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for RB Bragantino.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

RB Bragantino

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
07 Oct 2026H Mirassol1-1
03 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG0-1
20 Sep 2026A Flamengo1-2
13 Sep 2026A Botafogo1-1
05 Sep 2026H Bahia2-3

Cruzeiro

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
08 Oct 2026H Sao Paulo2-0
20 Sep 2026A Vitoria3-1
13 Sep 2026A Santos1-2
06 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-1
30 Aug 2026A Vasco DA Gama1-3
Market aligned with main pickCruzeiro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Cruzeiro Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Cruzeiro's recent form is strong, securing 9 points with effective goal scoring and defensive stability. RB Bragantino's recent 2 points and lower goal output highlight struggles in converting chances and maintaining momentum, favoring Cruzeiro's and tactical execution.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%RB Bragantino Over 2.5
80%Cruzeiro Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, with a high frequency of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches. This trend suggests an open game with attacking intent from both sides, driven by transitions and set-piece opportunities, supporting expectations for multiple goals.

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