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League Cup | Sun 13 Sep, 12:00

Rangers v Celtic Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Old Firm derby at Celtic Park arrives with Celtic riding a wave of momentum, having secured five consecutive wins under Martin O'Neill's revitalising leadership. Celtic's attacking sharpness and home advantage contrast with Rangers' recent defensive fragility, having conceded 11 goals in their last five matches. The stakes are high as Celtic chase the title with little margin for error, while Rangers aim to halt their slide and protect pride. Both sides face pressure, but Celtic's current form and tactical cohesion position them as favourites in this fiercely contested fixture.

BT4Y match pick

Celtic to Win

  • Celtic have won their last five matches, showing strong momentum.
  • Rangers have conceded 11 goals in their last five games, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Daizen Maeda has scored four goals in his last three appearances, posing a significant threat.
  • Rangers remain unbeaten in their last six Premiership meetings with Celtic, adding derby unpredictability.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Celtic's sustained winning streak and attacking efficiency underpin the in backing them to win. Their momentum, combined with Rangers' defensive lapses, suggests a tactical advantage for Celtic. However, the current are shorter than the model's estimated chance, reflecting market optimism. This selection is football-led rather than pure value, so reduced staking is advised until price drift or stronger late data emerges. The stable squad and attacking roles, especially Maeda's form, reinforce Celtic's likelihood of victory.

Celtic MomentumFive consecutive wins in all competitions
Strong positive
Rangers Defensive Issues11 goals conceded in last five matches
Strong positive
Daizen Maeda Form4 goals in 3 games
Strong positive
Market Price vs Model ChanceImplied chance 54.5% vs model 38.5%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Celtic's current form and attacking sharpness make them the tactical favourites to secure victory in this Old Firm derby. Their ability to exploit Rangers' defensive vulnerabilities, combined with strong momentum, provides a compelling case for backing Celtic to win. This selection balances recent performance with the intense pressure of the fixture.

Main risk

However, Celtic have responded impressively despite those absences.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Celtic's revitalised attack and home advantage create a clear tactical edge, but Rangers' derby resilience means this match will be fiercely contested and unpredictable.”

Key Data Signals

Celtic to Win evidence

Celtic have won their last five matches, showing strong momentum.

Rangers have conceded 11 goals in their last five games, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Daizen Maeda has scored four goals in his last three appearances, posing a significant threat.

Rangers remain unbeaten in their last six Premiership meetings with Celtic, adding derby unpredictability.

What To Watch In The Data

Celtic to Win notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches have averaged 3.2 goals, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters.
  • Both teams' recent form suggests a continuation of this trend, with Rangers' defensive frailty and Celtic's attacking momentum likely to produce multiple scoring opportunities and a lively tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rangers5
Avg goals scored
Celtic4
Rangers1
Avg goals conceded
Celtic0
Rangers100%
BTTS rate
Celtic0%
Rangers100%
Over 2.5 goals
Celtic100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form data shows Rangers have conceded heavily while Celtic have maintained a tight defense, suggesting a lower likelihood of both teams scoring. Celtic's attacking ruthlessness combined with Rangers' defensive fragility points to a probable under 3.5 goals scenario with BTTS No, aligning with the tactical emphasis on control and selective attacking transitions.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 39% · edge -0.7 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Celtic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The market prices Celtic as favourites at 5/6, reflecting strong in their winning chances. However, the model estimates a lower probability, indicating the price is short and caution is warranted. This suggests the selection is driven more by football context and momentum than pure value, recommending reduced stakes or waiting for drift.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rangers

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
16 Aug 2026H ST Mirren5-1

Celtic

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
15 Aug 2026A Dundee Utd4-0
Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 39% · edge -0.7 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Celtic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Celtic's flawless five-match winning streak highlights their current control and . Conversely, Rangers' recent form is marred by defensive struggles and consecutive defeats, undermining their stability. This contrast in momentum strongly favours Celtic in the match outcome market, reinforcing their status as favourites.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Rangers wins
5Draws
2Celtic wins
10 May 2026Celtic v Rangers3-1
08 Mar 2026Rangers v Celtic0-0
01 Mar 2026Rangers v Celtic2-2
03 Jan 2026Celtic v Rangers1-3
02 Nov 2025Celtic v Rangers3-1
31 Aug 2025Rangers v Celtic0-0
Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 39% · edge -0.7 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Rangers remain unbeaten in their last six Premiership meetings with Celtic, highlighting the derby's unpredictability despite current form disparities. This historical resilience suggests Celtic must overcome not only tactical challenges but also psychological barriers, adding complexity to the match outcome prediction.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

League Cup

Rangers1
Played
Celtic1
Rangers5
Avg goals for
Celtic4
Rangers1
Avg goals against
Celtic0
Rangers0
Clean sheets
Celtic1
Market aligned with main pickCeltic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 39% vs implied 39% · edge -0.7 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Celtic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over the season, Celtic have demonstrated a potent attack and improved defensive solidity, supporting their winning chances. Rangers' defensive record has deteriorated recently, with multiple goals conceded in recent matches, indicating vulnerability. These season-long trends align with the expectation of Celtic capitalising on defensive weaknesses.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Rangers Over 2.5
100%Celtic Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches have averaged 3.2 goals, indicating a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters. Both teams' recent form suggests a continuation of this trend, with Rangers' defensive frailty and Celtic's attacking momentum likely to produce multiple scoring opportunities and a lively tempo.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.