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Qarabag crestQarabag
v
CSKA Sofia crestCSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa League | Thu 23 Jul, 17:00

Qarabag v CSKA Sofia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 24 Jul 2026, 02:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Qarabag host CSKA Sofia in the first leg of the Europa League second qualifying round, with both sides showing strong attacking credentials in recent fixtures. Qarabag have impressed with back-to-back 3-0 wins in earlier rounds, showcasing a potent attack led by Zakaria Sawo, who has been directly involved in five of six goals. CSKA Sofia arrive after high-scoring matches against Derry City, with Ioannis Pittas spearheading their offense. The tactical battle will hinge on Qarabag's ability to control possession and territory against CSKA's varied attacking threats, setting the stage for an open, high-tempo encounter with multiple goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Qarabag scored 6 goals in two qualifiers without conceding, led by Zakaria Sawo's 5 goal involvements.
  • CSKA Sofia scored 5 and conceded 3 in their qualifiers, showing offensive strength but defensive vulnerability.
  • Both teams have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating a high-scoring trend.
  • Qarabag's midfield duo aims to control tempo and create space for wide attackers, increasing goal chances.
  • CSKA's attacking variety with Pittas, Godoy, and Eto'o can exploit Qarabag's defensive gaps.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 2.5 Goals highly with a 77.5% chance, reflecting both teams' recent attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Qarabag's dominant 6-0 aggregate with multiple goal involvements from key players contrasts with CSKA Sofia's open matches featuring 8 goals across two legs. The tactical setup suggests Qarabag will press and switch play rapidly, while CSKA's offensive variety and counter-attacking potential increase scoring opportunities. The 24.9% at 1.9 confirms this is a strong football read for a high-scoring game without price caution.

Qarabag's recent scoring and clean sheetsStrong positive
Strong positive
CSKA Sofia's open matches with goals scored and concededPositive
Positive
Both teams' 100% Over 2.5 rate in recent gamesStrong positive
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied oddsStrong positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This fixture promises an open contest with Qarabag's home control and attacking rhythm facing CSKA Sofia's offensive variety. Qarabag's ability to control possession and create high-quality chances combined with CSKA's goal threat makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection. The data supports a lively match with multiple goals, reflecting both teams' recent form and tactical approaches.

Main risk

Pittas offers the most immediate threat, but CSKA’s attack is not entirely dependent on him.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics and goal potential

“Qarabag's structured attacking play and CSKA Sofia's varied forward options set the stage for a dynamic, high-scoring encounter that should exceed two goals comfortably.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Qarabag scored 6 goals in two qualifiers without conceding, led by Zakaria Sawo's 5 goal involvements.

CSKA Sofia scored 5 and conceded 3 in their qualifiers, showing offensive strength but defensive vulnerability.

Both teams have a 100% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches, indicating a high-scoring trend.

Qarabag's midfield duo aims to control tempo and create space for wide attackers, increasing goal chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Recent trends over the last two qualifying rounds show both teams consistently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • Qarabag's quick tempo and CSKA's open style contribute to a high-scoring environment, with tactical emphasis on transitions and attacking variety driving goal opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Qarabag3
Avg goals scored
CSKA Sofia2.5
Qarabag0
Avg goals conceded
CSKA Sofia1.5
Qarabag0%
BTTS rate
CSKA Sofia100%
Qarabag100%
Over 2.5 goals
CSKA Sofia100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Despite Qarabag's recent clean sheets, their matches have featured multiple goals, and CSKA Sofia's qualifiers have been high-scoring with goals conceded and scored in every game. The combination suggests a match with goals but less likelihood of both teams scoring, as Qarabag's defense remains solid, contrasting with CSKA's more open style.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
CSKA Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Qarabag Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Qarabag to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.9 with an implied chance of 52.6%, while the model estimates a 77.5% probability, indicating clear value. This discrepancy reflects in both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive lapses, making the market a strong candidate for backing without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Qarabag0
Avg corners for
CSKA Sofia0
Qarabag0
Avg total corners
CSKA Sofia0
Qarabag0
Avg yellow cards
CSKA Sofia2
Qarabag0
Avg shots
CSKA Sofia0
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
While specific corner and shot data is limited, the tactical emphasis on possession control by Qarabag and CSKA's quick transitions implies sustained pressure and shot volume. CSKA's higher average yellow cards suggest a physical approach that may disrupt play and create set-piece opportunities, contributing to attacking chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Qarabag

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
16 Jul 2026A Vestri3-0
09 Jul 2026H Vestri3-0

CSKA Sofia

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
16 Jul 2026A Derry City2-1
09 Jul 2026H Derry City3-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
CSKA Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
6
Check odds @ 6
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Qarabag Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Qarabag to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Both teams have won their last two qualifying matches, with Qarabag scoring six goals without conceding and CSKA Sofia scoring five while conceding three. Their perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent games underlines a trend toward open, attacking football, reinforcing expectations for a high-scoring encounter in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Qarabag wins
0Draws
0CSKA Sofia wins
04 Jul 2023CSKA Sofia v Qarabag0-1
07 Jul 2021CSKA Sofia v Qarabag0-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Qarabag to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows an average of only 1 goal per game, which is low compared to recent form. This suggests that while past meetings offer little direct support for a high-scoring game, current tactical setups and recent performances carry greater weight for this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Qarabag3
Played
CSKA Sofia3
Qarabag2
Avg goals for
CSKA Sofia1.7
Qarabag0
Avg goals against
CSKA Sofia1
Qarabag3
Clean sheets
CSKA Sofia1
Best odds for this sectionCSKA Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 30%
6
Check odds @ 6
Qarabag Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Qarabag to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Qarabag's season stats show consistent scoring and defensive solidity, with clean sheets in recent matches. CSKA Sofia's stats reveal a potent attack but defensive vulnerabilities, creating a contrast that favors a match with multiple goals but potentially fewer from Qarabag's side conceding.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Qarabag Over 2.5
100%CSKA Sofia Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Recent trends over the last two qualifying rounds show both teams consistently involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Qarabag's quick tempo and CSKA's open style contribute to a high-scoring environment, with tactical emphasis on transitions and attacking variety driving goal opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Qarabag v CSKA Sofia prediction

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