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Qarabag crestQarabag
v
CSKA Sofia crestCSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa League | Thu 23 Jul, 17:00

Qarabag v CSKA Sofia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 24 Sep 2026, 04:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Qarabag face CSKA Sofia in UEFA Europa League on Thu 23 Jul, 17:00. Their four-man midfield supports Ioannis Pittas, who has three Europa League goals, while Qarabag’s European experience and away threat suggest both teams will score.

BT4Y best bet

CSKA Sofia to Win and Both Teams To Score

  • CSKA Sofia to Win and Both Teams To Score is rated around 13% by the current BT4Y model.
  • CSKA Sofia have scored in two of their last three home games, while Qarabag have kept clean sheets in all recent away matches.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Qarabag and 100% for CSKA Sofia.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates CSKA Sofia to Win and Both Teams To Score around 13% on the latest available numbers. The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Qarabag and 100% for CSKA Sofia. CSKA Sofia have scored in two of their last three home games, while Qarabag have kept clean sheets in all recent away matches.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
CSKA Sofia to Win and Both Teams To Score needs.Visible data support
Positive
CSKA Sofia have scored in two of their last.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: CSKA Sofia Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because cSKA Sofia have scored in two of their last three home games, while Qarabag have kept clean sheets in all recent away matches. The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Qarabag and 100% for CSKA Sofia. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

CSKA Sofia to Win and Both Teams To Score evidence

CSKA Sofia have scored in two of their last three home games, while Qarabag have kept clean sheets.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 0% for Qarabag and 100% for CSKA Sofia.

CSKA Sofia Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 3 for Qarabag and 2.5 for CSKA Sofia are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

CSKA Sofia to Win and Both Teams To Score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Qarabag3
Avg goals scored
CSKA Sofia2.5
Qarabag0
Avg goals conceded
CSKA Sofia1.5
Qarabag0%
BTTS rate
CSKA Sofia100%
Qarabag100%
Over 2.5 goals
CSKA Sofia100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 78% · edge +9.9 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCSKA Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 19%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
CSKA Sofia Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Qarabag0
Avg corners for
CSKA Sofia0
Qarabag0
Avg total corners
CSKA Sofia0
Qarabag0
Avg yellow cards
CSKA Sofia2
Qarabag0
Avg shots
CSKA Sofia0
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Qarabag

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
16 Jul 2026A Vestri3-0
09 Jul 2026H Vestri3-0

CSKA Sofia

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
16 Jul 2026A Derry City2-1
09 Jul 2026H Derry City3-2
Market aligned with main pickCSKA Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 19%
6
Check odds @ 6
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Qarabag wins
0Draws
0CSKA Sofia wins
04 Jul 2023CSKA Sofia v Qarabag0-1
07 Jul 2021CSKA Sofia v Qarabag0-1
Market aligned with main pickCSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 19% vs implied 17% · edge +2.6 pts
6
Check odds @ 6
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The head-to-head sample gives context for CSKA Sofia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Qarabag4
Played
CSKA Sofia8
Qarabag1.5
Avg goals for
CSKA Sofia1.3
Qarabag0.3
Avg goals against
CSKA Sofia1.4
Qarabag3
Clean sheets
CSKA Sofia3
Market aligned with main pickCSKA Sofia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
CSKA Sofia to WinBetfred guide price · model 19%
6
Check odds @ 6
Season data supports CSKA Sofia Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
UEFA Europa League standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Qarabag Over 2.5
100%CSKA Sofia Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Qarabag sit at 100% and CSKA Sofia sit at 100% with the H2H average at 1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.