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Portugal crestPortugal
v
Congo DR crestCongo DR

World Cup | Wed 17 Jun, 18:00

Portugal v Congo DR Stats

Data last updated: Sat 01 Aug 2026, 17:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portugal face Congo DR in World Cup on Wed 17 Jun, 18:00. Group K Opens With Control, Chaos and a Question Portugal Cannot Ignore. Given their recent streak of 13 matches without being behind at half time, Portugal's quality should finally tell in a narrow single-goal margin as the underdogs fatigue late on.

BT4Y best bet

Portugal to Win & Under 2

  • At 23/10, Portugal to Win & Under 2 implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.
  • DR Congo have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and concede just 0.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 43% for Portugal to Win & Under 2 sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. DR Congo have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and concede just 0.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Positive
DR Congo have kept 10 clean sheets in 16.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +12.7 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Portugal Win is the preferred angle because dR Congo have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and concede just that scoring level per game, so this is not a soft defensive assignment. However, DR Congo are defensively stubborn, keeping 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and allowing just 0.63 goals per game.

Main risk

However, DR Congo are defensively stubborn, keeping 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and allowing just 0.63 goals per game.

Key Data Signals

Portugal to Win & Under 2 evidence

DR Congo have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and concede just 0.

What To Watch In The Data

Portugal to Win & Under 2 notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 77% · edge -33.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Portugal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Portugal to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Portugal-
    Avg goals scored
    Congo DR-
    Portugal-
    Avg goals conceded
    Congo DR-
    Portugal-
    BTTS rate
    Congo DR-
    Portugal-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Congo DR-
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Portugal

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Portugal yet.

    Congo DR

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Congo DR yet.

    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 77% · edge -33.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.06
    Check odds @ 1.06
    Portugal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Portugal wins
    0Draws
    0Congo DR wins
    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 77% · edge -33.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Portugal to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Portugal5
    Played
    Congo DR4
    Portugal1.6
    Avg goals for
    Congo DR1.3
    Portugal0.6
    Avg goals against
    Congo DR1.3
    Portugal2
    Clean sheets
    Congo DR0
    Market aligned with main pickPortugal to WinBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 77% · edge -33.9 pts
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Portugal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.13
    Check odds @ 1.13
    Season data supports Portugal to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Portugal531205
    3Congo DR431111
    1Congo DR431111
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Portugal Over 2.5
    -Congo DR Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    DR Congo have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches and concede just 0.63 goals per game, so this is not a soft defensive assignment.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Portugal v Congo DR prediction

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre