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Port Vale crestPort Vale
v
Mansfield Town crestMansfield Town

EFL Trophy | Tue 06 Oct, 19:00

Port Vale v Mansfield Town Stats

Data last updated: Mon 05 Oct 2026, 09:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Port Vale and Mansfield Town meet in the EFL Trophy, both sides showing contrasting defensive records that set the stage for an open encounter. Port Vale have conceded just once in recent outings, while Mansfield Town have struggled at the back, conceding four goals in their last matches. Both teams have demonstrated attacking intent, with Port Vale averaging 17 shots per game and Mansfield Town showing a high rate of over 2.5 goals in their matches. This fixture promises tactical battles with offensive opportunities on both sides, making goal involvement from both teams likely.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in 100% of their recent matches.
  • Mansfield Town's games have a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals.
  • Port Vale average 17 shots per game, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.1 goals, supporting goal-rich encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking patterns and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Port Vale's consistent shot volume and Mansfield Town's high over 2.5 goals rate underline the likelihood of goals from both teams. The 14.3% and favorable at 1.62 reinforce this pick as a solid choice. No data limitations affect , and the attacking tendencies of key players support the expectation of goals at both ends.

Model Chance76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Port Vale Shots per Game17
Positive
Mansfield Over 2.5 Goals Rate100%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown clear attacking intent and defensive frailties, making both teams to score a logical pick. Port Vale's sustained shot pressure combined with Mansfield Town's tendency for high-scoring games suggests goals at both ends. This bet aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of the fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS

“This fixture features two sides with attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses, creating a fertile ground for goals from both teams. The data strongly supports a BTTS outcome given the offensive roles and recent scoring trends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in 100% of their recent matches.

Mansfield Town's games have a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals.

Port Vale average 17 shots per game, indicating attacking pressure.

Head-to-head matches average 3.1 goals, supporting goal-rich encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3.1, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters.
  • Mansfield Town's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games suggests a fast tempo and defensive gaps, supporting an expectation of multiple goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Port Vale1
Avg goals scored
Mansfield Town1
Port Vale1
Avg goals conceded
Mansfield Town4
Port Vale100%
BTTS rate
Mansfield Town100%
Port Vale0%
Over 2.5 goals
Mansfield Town100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have scored in all recent matches, and Mansfield Town's games consistently exceed 2.5 goals, indicating open play and defensive vulnerabilities. The average of 3.1 goals in their head-to-head meetings further supports a goal-rich encounter with both sides finding the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Port Vale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Port Vale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Mansfield Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
The 76% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+14.3 pts). Port Vale show a 100% BTTS rate and Mansfield Town show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Port Vale

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
22 Sep 2026A Chesterfield1-1

Mansfield Town

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
19 Aug 2026H Manchester City U211-4
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 69% · edge -3.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Port Vale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Port Vale Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Mansfield Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Mansfield Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Port Vale have scored and conceded one goal in their latest match, maintaining a 100% both teams to score rate. Mansfield Town have conceded four goals recently but also scored once, reflecting a pattern of open games with goals at both ends, reinforcing the BTTS trend.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Port Vale Over 2.5
100%Mansfield Town Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3.1, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters. Mansfield Town's 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games suggests a fast tempo and defensive gaps, supporting an expectation of multiple goals in this match.

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