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Grimsby crestGrimsby

League Two | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Port Vale v Grimsby Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Port Vale host Grimsby in a League Two clash where both teams show contrasting recent form and attacking intent. Grimsby, positioned comfortably in the top half, have been more prolific offensively, averaging 1.6 goals per game and generating more shots and corners. Port Vale, struggling near the bottom, have a more defensive posture but still contribute to set-piece opportunities. The tactical battle is likely to see Grimsby pressing higher and creating sustained pressure, which should lead to a high number of corners in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Grimsby average 7 corners per game, significantly higher than Port Vale's 4.6
  • Both teams have moderate fouling rates, suggesting set-piece chances from free kicks and corners
  • Recent form shows Port Vale's low scoring but Grimsby's more attacking style
  • Player data indicates active shooting and attacking roles, especially from Grimsby's J.
  • for Over 9.5 Corners is strong at 69%, with positive over market

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 9.5 Corners at a 69% chance, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, indicating clear value. Grimsby's attacking approach, averaging 7 corners per match, combined with Port Vale's defensive struggles, supports a high corner count. Both teams generate decent shot volumes, increasing the likelihood of forced defensive clearances leading to corners. The data quality is solid, with comprehensive stats for both sides, reinforcing in this corner market selection.

Model Chance69% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance69% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Positive
Value Edge69% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive
Grimsby Corner Average7 per game
Strong positive
Port Vale Corner Average4.6 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a corner-heavy match as Grimsby's offensive pressure and Port Vale's defensive vulnerabilities combine to create numerous set-piece situations. The statistical edge in corners for both teams, especially Grimsby, supports the Over 9.5 Corners selection with a solid data foundation.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corner market analysis

“Grimsby's consistent corner generation and Port Vale's defensive frailties set the stage for a high-corner match, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling angle with strong statistical backing.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Grimsby average 7 corners per game, significantly higher than Port Vale's 4.6

Both teams have moderate fouling rates, suggesting set-piece chances from free kicks and corners

Recent form shows Port Vale's low scoring but Grimsby's more attacking style

Player data indicates active shooting and attacking roles, especially from Grimsby's J.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating moderately open games.
  • While this trend focuses on goals, it suggests a tempo conducive to attacking plays and transitions, which often result in corners.
  • The trend supports an expectation of active offensive phases leading to a higher corner count in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Port Vale0.4
Avg goals scored
Grimsby1.6
Port Vale1.2
Avg goals conceded
Grimsby1.2
Port Vale20%
BTTS rate
Grimsby60%
Port Vale20%
Over 2.5 goals
Grimsby60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 54% · edge +5.2 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Goal scoring rates differ, with Grimsby averaging 1.6 goals and Port Vale 0.4, but both concede around 1.2 goals per game. BTTS rates are low for Port Vale (20%) but higher for Grimsby (60%), indicating asymmetric attacking threat. This suggests open play and attacking pressure from Grimsby, which can translate into more corners rather than high goal totals.

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Useful next reads

more League Two analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGrimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 53% · edge +15 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
Grimsby to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Port Vale Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+11.2 pts). Grimsby lead the corner sample at 7 per match, with Port Vale lower at 4.6.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Port Vale

LWLLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 4L
19 Sep 2026A Walsall0-2
12 Sep 2026H Exeter City1-0
05 Sep 2026A Salford City0-1
01 Sep 2026A Swindon Town1-3
29 Aug 2026H Crewe0-0

Grimsby

LLWWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Shrewsbury1-2
26 Sep 2026A Newport County1-2
19 Sep 2026H Crawley Town2-0
12 Sep 2026H Bristol Rovers2-0
05 Sep 2026A Cheltenham2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Grimsby Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Grimsby to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Port Vale Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Port Vale to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Recent form shows Grimsby with 7 points from recent matches and a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reflecting attacking momentum. Port Vale's form is weaker with 4 points and a 20% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a more defensive approach. However, both teams' attacking efforts create corner opportunities, supporting the Over 9.5 Corners market in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Port Vale Over 2.5
60%Grimsby Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating moderately open games. While this trend focuses on goals, it suggests a tempo conducive to attacking plays and transitions, which often result in corners. The trend supports an expectation of active offensive phases leading to a higher corner count in this fixture.

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