Football Stats Hub

Port Vale crestPort Vale
v
Exeter City crestExeter City

League Two | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

Port Vale v Exeter City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Port Vale and Exeter City meet in a League Two clash where both teams have struggled to find the net consistently this season. Port Vale sits near the bottom of the table with just two points and a low scoring rate, while Exeter City has been slightly more productive but still cautious in attack. Both sides have shown defensive resilience, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. This match is likely to be tight and low scoring, reflecting the teams' current form and strategic approach.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Port Vale averages only 0.4 goals per game, indicating limited attacking output.
  • Exeter City concedes fewer goals (0.8 per game) and maintains a solid defensive record.
  • Both teams have a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20%, supporting a low-scoring game.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, with a tendency towards tight scorelines.
  • Shot data shows moderate attempts but limited shots on target, reflecting cautious play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a strong value pick with a 66% chance, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%. Both teams have low scoring rates and defensive solidity, with Port Vale scoring just 0.4 goals per match and Exeter City conceding only 0.8. The low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20% for both sides and moderate shot volumes further support a low-scoring outcome. This statistical profile aligns with a tactical match where defensive caution prevails, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection.

Model Chance66%
Strong positive
Port Vale Goals For0.4 per game
Strong positive
Exeter City Goals Against0.8 per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate20% both teams
Strong positive
Shots on TargetLow to moderate
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical choice given the cautious attacking records and defensive focus of both Port Vale and Exeter City. The teams' current form and low scoring rates suggest a match where goals will be at a premium, making a low-scoring bet the most tactically and statistically sound option.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical rationale for Under 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two sides that prioritize defensive organization over attacking risk, which naturally suppresses goal totals. The data confirms a low scoring tempo, making Under 2.5 Goals a compelling angle for bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Port Vale averages only 0.4 goals per game, indicating limited attacking output.

Exeter City concedes fewer goals (0.8 per game) and maintains a solid defensive record.

Recent head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, with a tendency towards tight scorelines.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Analysis of the last 10 head-to-head matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, with a tendency towards low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and defensive solidity, suggests that Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Port Vale0.4
Avg goals scored
Exeter City0.8
Port Vale1.4
Avg goals conceded
Exeter City0.8
Port Vale40%
BTTS rate
Exeter City40%
Port Vale20%
Over 2.5 goals
Exeter City20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Both Port Vale and Exeter City have low goals per game averages and a 40% BTTS rate, indicating that matches often feature one or no team scoring. The shared low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 20% further emphasizes a trend towards tight scorelines and limited goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

League Two hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Port Vale

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
05 Sep 2026A Salford City0-1
01 Sep 2026A Swindon Town1-3
29 Aug 2026H Crewe0-0
22 Aug 2026H Tranmere1-1
15 Aug 2026A Oldham0-2

Exeter City

DDLWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
05 Sep 2026H Walsall0-0
01 Sep 2026H Barnet1-1
29 Aug 2026A York1-2
22 Aug 2026H Accrington ST2-0
15 Aug 2026A Grimsby0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Exeter City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Exeter City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Port Vale to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form data shows Port Vale with only 2 points and a low scoring rate of 0.4 goals per game, while Exeter City has 5 points and a slightly better 0.8 goals per game. Both teams have a 20% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring match based on current performance trends.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
16Exeter City551220
24Port Vale25023-5
Port Vale's position near the bottom of the League Two table with only 2 points contrasts with Exeter City's mid-table standing and 5 points. While standings suggest Port Vale may be under pressure, the overall low scoring form of both teams indicates that league position is less influential than tactical caution in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionExeter City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Exeter City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with around 1.8, reflecting a 55.6% implied chance. The model's 66% probability indicates clear value, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of a low-scoring game given the teams' defensive tendencies and low scoring outputs.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Port Vale4.6
Avg corners for
Exeter City4.4
Port Vale8.8
Avg total corners
Exeter City9.2
Port Vale1.8
Avg yellow cards
Exeter City1.6
Port Vale10.6
Avg shots
Exeter City11.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 48% · edge +7.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Shot data shows Port Vale averages 10.6 shots with 3 on target, while Exeter City averages 11.4 shots with 3.6 on target, indicating moderate offensive attempts but limited finishing quality. Corner counts are balanced around 4.5 per team, reflecting cautious territorial play. Discipline is moderate, with yellow cards averaging around 1.7 per team, suggesting a controlled but competitive match environment.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Port Vale wins
1Draws
4Exeter City wins
24 Jan 2026Port Vale v Exeter City1-3
13 Sep 2025Exeter City v Port Vale0-2
13 Apr 2024Port Vale v Exeter City2-4
09 Dec 2023Exeter City v Port Vale0-1
18 Feb 2023Port Vale v Exeter City1-0
05 Nov 2022Port Vale v Exeter City2-3
Best odds for this sectionExeter City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Port Vale to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, indicating generally tight contests between Port Vale and Exeter City. This moderate scoring average supports a cautious approach to goal markets, with no strong historical bias towards high-scoring outcomes in this fixture.
Season team stats

League Two

Port Vale5
Played
Exeter City5
Port Vale0.4
Avg goals for
Exeter City0.8
Port Vale1.4
Avg goals against
Exeter City0.8
Port Vale1
Clean sheets
Exeter City2
Best odds for this sectionExeter City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Exeter City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Port Vale Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Port Vale to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season-long statistics reveal Port Vale's struggles in attack with under one goal per game and a higher goals against average of 1.4, indicating defensive vulnerabilities but limited offensive threat. Exeter City maintains a more balanced defensive record, conceding 0.8 goals per game, supporting the likelihood of a match with few goals scored overall.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Port Vale Over 2.5
20%Exeter City Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Analysis of the last 10 head-to-head matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, with a tendency towards low-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and defensive solidity, suggests that Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, reinforcing the rationale for Under 2.5 Goals in this match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Crawley Town v CheltenhamLeague Two · Sat 12 Sep 12:30Grimsby v Bristol RoversLeague Two · Sat 12 Sep 12:30Rotherham v Salford CityLeague Two · Sat 12 Sep 15:00Walsall v RochdaleLeague Two · Sat 12 Sep 15:00

Competition and hubs

League Two hubLeague Two hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre