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Pogon Szczecin crestPogon Szczecin
v
Korona Kielce crestKorona Kielce

Ekstraklasa | Sun 11 Oct, 16:30

Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both sides have shown moderate scoring and defensive solidity this season. Pogon ranks 6th and Korona 7th, each with 15 points, reflecting a balanced competition. Recent matches suggest a cautious tactical approach, with both teams averaging fewer than two goals conceded per game and a shared tendency toward controlled tempo. This fixture's stakes lie in consolidating mid-table positions, likely encouraging measured attacking intent and defensive discipline from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average only 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating generally low-scoring matches.
  • Pogon Szczecin concedes just 0.8 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Korona Kielce's attack averages 1.6 goals per game but often faces tight defenses.
  • Recent form shows both teams scoring under 2.5 goals in 60% of matches, supporting a low-scoring outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 64.4% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and moderate attacking output. Pogon Szczecin's low goals conceded (0.8 per game) and Korona Kielce's cautious approach combine to reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The shared 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate further supports this. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value with a 15.6% edge. This pick balances statistical trends with tactical context, suggesting a controlled match with limited goal-scoring.

Model Chance63.8% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance63.8% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge63.8% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthPogon concedes 0.8 goals/game
Positive
Scoring RatesBoth teams have 40% Over 2.5 rate
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given Pogon Szczecin's strong defensive record and Korona Kielce's moderate scoring. Both teams have shown a tendency to keep matches tight, and the data supports a cautious game with limited goal-scoring opportunities. This bet aligns well with recent form and season-long defensive solidity.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“This fixture features two sides that prioritize defensive organization and measured attacking play, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical outcome based on their consistent low-scoring matches.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Pogon Szczecin concedes just 0.8 goals per game, showing defensive resilience.

Korona Kielce's attack averages 1.6 goals per game but often faces tight defenses.

Recent form shows both teams scoring under 2.5 goals in 60% of matches, supporting a low-scoring outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.0, with only 40% exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This trend highlights a consistent pattern of low-scoring games between these teams, likely due to tactical caution and defensive organization.
  • The tempo and chance quality suggest a match where goals will be limited and controlled.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pogon Szczecin1.4
Avg goals scored
Korona Kielce1.6
Pogon Szczecin0.8
Avg goals conceded
Korona Kielce1.2
Pogon Szczecin60%
BTTS rate
Korona Kielce60%
Pogon Szczecin40%
Over 2.5 goals
Korona Kielce40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and a 60% BTTS rate, indicating moderate attacking output but a stronger defensive tendency overall. The average goals per game in their head-to-head and season matches hover around two, supporting a low-scoring scenario with occasional goals but unlikely both teams scoring heavily.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pogon Szczecin

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 1L
20 Sep 2026A Piast Gliwice2-1
13 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-0
07 Sep 2026H Wisla Plock1-1
29 Aug 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-0
23 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow2-2

Korona Kielce

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Raków Częstochowa3-2
15 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze0-2
12 Sep 2026A Slask Wroclaw2-1
05 Sep 2026H Wisla Krakow1-1
28 Aug 2026A Wisla Plock2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +11.9 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Korona Kielce to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Pogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form data shows Pogon Szczecin scoring 1.4 goals and conceding 0.8 per game, while Korona Kielce scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2. Both teams have only 40% of matches going Over 2.5 Goals, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters. This form supports the Under 2.5 Goals pick as both sides maintain defensive focus and moderate attacking output.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Korona Kielce to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Pogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 63.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Pogon Szczecin and 40% for Korona Kielce, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
40%Korona Kielce Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.0, with only 40% exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend highlights a consistent pattern of low-scoring games between these teams, likely due to tactical caution and defensive organization. The tempo and chance quality suggest a match where goals will be limited and controlled.

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